Fallacy Files
Looking for some good structure for teaching about logical thinking? My wife just pointed out
The Fallacy Files.
Alphabetical List of Fallacies and the blog
The Taxomony of Local Fallacies
It's interactive!
How to read a poll
Because polls question only a sample of the population, there is always a chance of sampling error, that is, of drawing a sample that is unrepresentative. For instance, in a political poll, it is possible that a random sample of voters would consist entirely of Democrats, though this is highly unlikely. However, less extreme errors of the same kind are not so unlikely, and this means that every poll has some degree of imprecision or fuzziness. Because the sample may not be precisely representative of the population as a whole, there is some chance that the poll results will be off by a certain amount. Statisticians measure the chance of this kind of error by the "margin of error", or "MoE" for short…
About the author, Gary N. Curtis
I have a doctoral degree in philosophy from Indiana University in Bloomington… My dissertation concerned the concept of logical form, and touched on the subject of formal fallacies. I have taught philosophy and logic at both the undergraduate and graduate levels at I.U.B., Indiana University-Purdue University at Indianapolis… and Indiana State University. For five years, I worked as an ontologist for the artificial intelligence company Cycorp, Inc. in Austin, Texas…
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Labels: pedagogy
Fortifying power
Of the hundreds of people who submitted their candidacies for Iran's presidency, none of the women and none of those independent of the rulers will be on the ballot. Surprise? No.
The headline writer for
The New York Times followed Thomas Erdbrink's opening contention, but I think his contention is hyperbolic. I'll bet this result surprised no one in Iran.
A Founder of the Revolution Is Barred From Office, Shocking Iranians
The decision on Tuesday to bar the presidential candidacy of Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a founding father of the revolution and a former president, shocked Iranians…
The exclusion of Mr. Rafsanjani and another thorn in the conservatives’ side, Esfandiar Rahim Mashaei, could foreshadow even greater repercussions, analysts and commentators said.
Since its founding in 1979, the Islamic republic has been characterized by opposing power centers competing constantly and often publicly…
Barring further surprises, the winner of the June election will now be drawn from a slate of conservative candidates in Iran’s ruling camp, a loose alliance of Shiite Muslim clerics and Revolutionary Guard commanders. That would put the last major state institution under their control — the first time since the 1979 revolution that all state institutions were under the firm control of one faction.
Analysts have long speculated — and some conservative clerics have confirmed — that the ruling faction is determined to abolish the office of president, which has served as a locus of opposition…
At the very least, the anti-climactic election campaign seems likely to further reinforce the alienation of the urban classes, which make up a large portion of the electorate and mostly gave up on politics after the suppression of the 2009 uprising…
Mr. Rafsanjani’s disqualification appeared to mark the end of their aspiration to bring change through the ballot box rather than through street protests…
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Labels: elections, Iran, leadership, politics
Diversity, economics, and politics
Is ethnic diversity a cause of economic and political conditions? Or are there other factors that cause diversity?
This is one of a series of explorations of data by the
Wasington Pots's Max Fisher that could become the basis for discussion and research in a comparative politics classroom.
A revealing map of the world’s most and least ethnically diverse countries
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| Most diverse |
Ethnicity, like race, is a social construct, but it’s still a construct with significant implications for the world. How people perceive ethnicity, both their own and that of others, can be tough to measure, particularly given that it’s so subjective. So how do you study it?…
There are a few trends you can see right away: countries in Europe and Northeast Asia tend to be the most homogenous, sub-Saharan African nations the most diverse. The Americas are generally somewhere in the middle. And richer countries appear more likely to be homogenous…
Here are a few observations and conclusions:
- African countries are the most diverse.
- Japan and the Koreas are the most homogenous.
- European countries are ethnically homogenous.
- The Americas are often diverse.
- Wide variation in the Middle East.
- Internal conflicts appear to be more common in countries with high diversity.
- Diversity correlates with latitude and low GDP per capita.
- Strong democracy correlates with ethnic homogeneity.
Here’s the money quote on the potential political implications of ethnicity:
In general, it does not matter for our purposes whether ethnic differences reflect physical attributes of groups (skin color, facial features) or long-lasting social conventions (language, marriage within the group, cultural norms) or simple social definition (self-identification, identification by outsiders). When people persistently identify with a particular group, they form potential interest groups that can be manipulated by political leaders, who often choose to mobilize some coalition of ethnic groups (“us”) to the exclusion of others (“them”). Politicians also sometimes can mobilize support by singling out some groups for persecution, where hatred of the minority group is complementary to some policy the politician wishes to pursue.
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Labels: cleavages, concepts, democracy, ethnicity
We'll do it our way, thank you
Liberalizing the economy and strengthening democratic centralism seem to be the goals of the new leadership in China. Can it be done? Oh, and by the way, they'll not have any Chinese
Khrushchevs or Gorbachevs there.
China Warns Against ‘Dangerous’ Western Values
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| Mao |
The Chinese Communist Party has warned officials to combat “dangerous” Western values and other perceived ideological threats, according to accounts on Monday of a directive that analysts said reflects the top leader Xi Jinping’s determination to preserve top-down political control even as he considers economic liberalization…
The central document, “Concerning the situation in the ideological sphere,” has not been openly published… But what did come to light in the local summaries exuded anxiety about the party’s grip on opinion…
The Chinese government has confronted demands for democratic reform from activists emboldened by Mr. Xi’s vows to respect the law. In recent days, some activists have cited rumors that the party issued a warning against seven ideas that are considered anathema, including media freedom and judicial independence…
Officials must “fully understand the dangers posed by views and theories advocated by the West,” said the account from Chongqing, which said they must “cut off at the source channels for disseminating erroneous currents of thought.”
“Strengthen management of the Internet, enhance guidance of opinion, purify the environment on the Internet, give no opportunities that lawless elements can seize on,” it said…
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| Stalin |
Mr. Xi has accompanied such signals of [economic] change with the messages defending party tradition and control. In December, he said China must absorb the lessons of the collapse of the Soviet Union, which he blamed on political ill-discipline and ideological laxity under Mikhail Gorbachev.
More recently, Mr. Xi told officials that the Chinese Communist Party may not have survived if it had disowned Mao Zedong in the same way that the Soviet Union condemned Stalin, a party newspaper, the Guangming Daily, said last week…
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Labels: China, democratic centralism, economics, history, ideology, leadership, politics
Background for clueless teachers
If, like me, you don't have direct exposure to Hispanic culture or you never had a Hispanic student in class to clue you in, here's a thoughtful and guilt-free explanation of why the Mexican president is called Enrique Peña Nieto or the previous president was called Felipe Calderón Hinojosa or why the jailed head of the Mexican teachers' union is called Elba Esther Gordillo Morales.
And it will help you make sense out of non-Hispanic media who sometimes refer to President Nieto and other times refer to President Peña.
Hispanic Last Names: Why Two of Them?
One of the most misunderstood characteristics of Hispanic culture is the use of our last names…
Most Hispanic people use two last names? How can that be? How can you have two of the "last" thing? Well, in Spanish a last name is not called a last name (último nombre would be the literal translation of last name and it is meaningless in Spanish). In Spanish, the last name has a name of its own, it is called apellido. The proper translation to English is surname, a term that is seldom used in the U.S. Surname (or apellido) does not mean "last." So, when you talk about someone's last name you talk about their apellidos (surnames) since there are two of them. The two surnames are referred as the first apellido and the second apellido. Also, we refer to our first name by just name, and the middle name is referred as second name instead of middle. But I will focus on the last name issues…
In general in the US, the family as a group is addressed by the last name of the husband. In Hispanic circles, the family is addressed by the combination of the first surname of each of the partners in the marriage, which is the same of the surnames of the children of the marriage…
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Labels: Mexico, pedagogy
Uninvited civil society
Most textbooks make a point of arguing that Communist Party control of Chinese civil society is key to maintaining the party's power position. What if civil society is not controlled?
Social Media in China Fuel Citizen Response to Quake
The rapid grass-roots response to the [April 20 earthquake] reveals just how far China’s nascent civil society movement has come since 2008, when a 7.9-magnitude earthquake in Wenchuan, not far from Lushan, prompted a wave of volunteerism and philanthropy. That quake, which claimed about 90,000 lives, provoked criticism of the government for its ham-handed relief efforts…
 |
| 2013 Lushan earthquake |
Like the government, which honed its rescue and relief efforts after the Wenchuan earthquake, the volunteers and civil society groups that first appeared in 2008 gained valuable skills for working in disaster zones. Their ability to coordinate — and, in some instances, outsmart a government intent on keeping them away — were enhanced by Sina Weibo, the Twitter-like microblog that did not exist in 2008 but now has more than 500 million users.
“Civil society is much more capable today compared to 2008,” said Ran Yunfei, a prominent democracy activist and blogger, who describes Weibo as a revolutionary tool for social change…
Although [Li Chengpeng, a sports commentator from Sichuan turned civic activist] acknowledges the government’s importance during such disasters, Mr. Li contends that grass-roots activism is just as vital. “You can’t ask an NGO to blow up half a mountain to clear roads and you can’t ask an army platoon to ask a middle-aged woman whether she needs sanitary napkins,” he wrote in a recent post…
Analysts say the legions of volunteers and aid workers that descended on Sichuan threatened the government’s carefully constructed narrative about the earthquake. Indeed, some Chinese suspect such fears were at least partly behind official efforts to discourage altruistic citizens from coming to the region…
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Labels: China, civil society, Communist Party, politics
A one-man interest group
So, who is going to reform political culture in African countries?
How a billionaire is cutting Africa’s ‘big men’ down to size
Mo Ibrahim is working the room. Tossing off his jacket, rolling up his sleeves and prowling the convention room’s stage with microphone in hand, the Sudanese billionaire banters with Macky Sall, the President of Senegal. Suddenly he urges the audience to interrogate Mr. Sall, promising that nobody will be arrested or shot for impudent questions…
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| Mo Ibrahim |
Perhaps only this remarkable philanthropist can get away with such irreverence toward an African ruler, yet he wants such candid discussion to become the norm. The traditional “big men” of African politics should be neither feared nor worshipped, he says; they should be accountable to their fellow citizens in free and open debate.
It’s not just a distant dream. With his vast wealth and inexhaustible energy, Mr. Ibrahim is shaping a new generation of African politicians…
After cajoling his audience into firing questions at the President, Mr. Ibrahim takes a few minutes over an espresso to reflect on his campaign against Africa’s old guard of corrupt and dictatorial leaders. “It’s a new world,” he says, speaking as rapidly and passionately as he did onstage. “We have some wonderful leaders now. We still have dinosaurs – but you know what happened to dinosaurs.”
It has been less than seven years since he used the billions he earned as a pioneering entrepreneur in mobile phones to create the London-based Mo Ibrahim Foundation. Its purpose is to foster good governance and to administer a $5-million prize “for achievement in African leadership” – the world’s most lucrative annual award.
As a result, he says, it is no longer “taboo” to talk about leadership. “Because of the prize, there’s a lot of noise around this. Once people start to talk, … that’s what will change the game. We have to get out of the assumption that leaders are some kind of pharaohs. They are just human beings like us.”
As well as the annual search for a model politician – someone of great achievement who has left office democratically – Mr. Ibrahim is promoting reform with an independent index to measure the successes and failures of African governments…
The prize is an incentive, promoting clean, honest leadership, and Mr. Ibrahim helps to defuse politicians’ authoritarian streak by using a deft mixture of praise and criticism to nudge them toward a genuine conversation with their citizens…
Today, at the age of 67, he uses his carefully crafted irreverence to break down the barriers between the rulers and the ruled. Onstage, he addresses Senegal’s top officials as “brothers and sisters,” and explains to the audience: “I prefer this over ‘Your Highnesses.’ All of you are important. We’re all in the same trench, fighting for good governance and human rights.”…
He has no patience for politicians who bully the media. “The media are a mirror,” he says. “If you look in the mirror and you see something ugly, maybe you’re ugly.” The audience laughs and cheers.
Nor does he have any patience for Africa’s reverential attitude toward its former liberation movements, such as South Africa’s ruling African National Congress. He notes that the ANC has introduced a secrecy law to tighten controls on state information – the kind of law it would have fought in the apartheid era…
See The Mo Ibahim Foundation
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Labels: leadership, media, Nigeria, political culture
Marxist Mysticism
If the bribes are paid and the clients loyal, what else must a Chinese official do to ensure success?
China Officials Seek Career Shortcut With Feng Shui
As Marxist ideology has faded in China, ancient mystical beliefs once banned by the Communist Party are gaining ground…
This mystical revival is attracting devoted followers in that most forbidden of realms: the marbled, atheistic halls of Chinese officialdom. Besieged by a meddlesome public at the gates and political rivals amid their ranks, the country’s ambitious civil servants are increasingly — if discreetly — seeking supernatural shortcuts to wealth and power, much to the dismay of party ideologues and campaigners against corruption.
From rural township party chiefs to the nation’s disgraced former rail minister, Chinese government officials are increasingly making budgetary decisions to fulfill their own personal prophecies, according to experts, state news media reports and seasoned soothsayers.
In all this mysticism ordinary Chinese see little but corruption in drag…
Such was the case with Liu Zhijun, the former railway minister. While building the world’s largest high-speed rail network, Mr. Liu reportedly consulted a feng shui master who chose auspicious dates for breaking ground on major construction projects…
Fired in 2011, Mr. Liu was charged last month with corruption and abuse of power. In addition to the charges of taking $157 million in bribes and maintaining a harem of 18 mistresses, he is accused of an especially profane crime: “belief in feudal superstitions.”…
Citizens furious over officials dabbling in publicly financed mysticism have found an unlikely ally in the Communist Party… Though the government has taken a more laissez-faire approach to spirituality since the bloody persecutions of the Cultural Revolution 40 years ago, the authorities remain suspicious of competing dogma…
According to a 2007 report by the Chinese Academy of Governance, 52 percent of the nation’s county-level civil servants admitted to believing in divination, face reading, astrology or dream interpretation…
Feng shui, in fact, provides useful opportunities for businesspeople to curry favor with influential bureaucrats. To avoid exposure, officials often use business contacts to introduce them to a clairvoyant and pay for the consultation, which can be pricey. Mak Ling-Ling, 46, a Hong Kong feng shui consultant who frequently travels to the mainland, charges $16,000 for an hourlong presentation on auspicious real estate investing…
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Labels: China, corruption, politics
Nigerian state of emergency
Things are as bad as some people feared.
Goodluck Jonathan declares emergency in states
Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan has declared a state of emergency in three states after a series of deadly attacks by Islamist militant groups.
The military will take "all necessary action" to "put an end to the impunity of insurgents and terrorists" in Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe, he said…
In a pre-recorded address broadcast on Tuesday, President Jonathan said: "What we are facing is not just militancy or criminality, but a rebellion and insurgency by terrorist groups which pose a very serious threat to national unity and territorial integrity."
Referring to recent attacks on government buildings and killings of officials and other civilians, he said that "these actions amount to a declaration of war".
"We will hunt them down, we will fish them out, and we will bring them to justice," the president said…
It is not the first time that the president has declared a state of emergency, but this is a clear admission that far from being weakened by the army offensive, the threat of the Islamist militants is growing, says the BBC's Will Ross in Lagos.
And it is the first time that Mr Jonathan has admitted that parts of the country are no longer under central government control, says our correspondent…
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Labels: conflict, Nigeria, politics
Cross posting: Hints for success
For all the Advanced Placement students out there, this is a duplicate of what I posted on "Studying Comparative" this morning.
Three years ago, Mr. Frank Franz, who teaches in Virginia offered a list of great suggestions that will help you write better responses to FRQs.
I posted them then, two years ago, last year, and here they are once again.
I think these ideas are excellent. The only thing I’d add to the list would be to paraphrase the question as an introduction. In the last few years some rubrics have insisted that responses have introductions that label what is being discussed.
Here's what Mr. Franz wrote:
Here's the strategy I place on every FRQ I give my students. I believe it helps them focus on the questions and will help them earn as high of a score as possible. Some of these ideas are my own and some are from colleagues who have served as readers and table leaders.
Free Response Strategy
• Mark-up the question.
• Count up how many points you are trying to earn. (Look for number references, count the verbs)
• Write as many sentences as there are points.
• Write simple, declarative sentences.
• Answer the question asked. Nothing else.
• Answer every part of the question.
• Look for time references, patterns, and passage of time.
• Do not argue with the premise of the prompt.
• Skip a line between parts, but do not label.
Go ahead and thank Mr. Franz.
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The politics of PEMEX
It's not just about government revenue and international trade, the future of PEMEX (and the Mexican economy) might be dependent upon constitutional reform.
To power Mexico forward, Peña Nieto looks to energy reform
It has been 75 years since President Lázaro Cárdenas seized the country’s foreign-dominated petroleum industry and placed every drop of oil under the everlasting domain of the Mexican people.
But while it once was a source of national pride, the state-run monopoly he created — known as Pemex — has become a dinosaur, sapped by debt, sagging output and dated technology. The Mexican government siphons off the company’s revenue to cover about one-third of the federal budget, leaving insufficient funds for what has become a critical task: finding more oil.
… the company lacks the technology and know-how to drill for the vast stores of tougher-to-reach deposits that are thought to exist beneath Mexico’s deserts and seas…
Fixing the company, formally known as Petroleos de Mexico, has become a top priority for Mexico’s new president…
At issue is whether Mexico will embrace the prosperous state-managed model adopted by countries such as Norway and Brazil — where national oil companies can partner with foreign firms and sell shares to investors…
For those pushing for change, the challenge is as much political as it is technical. The Mexican constitution essentially blocks the country from forming joint-venture partnerships with outsiders, and analysts say such restrictions will need to be scrapped if the country wants to attract foreign drillers…
Lifting the restrictions on foreign oil companies through a constitutional amendment would require a two-thirds majority in Mexico’s Congress and the endorsement of more than half of the country’s state governors. Peña Nieto is expected to face considerable political wrangling from the powerful oil workers union, left-leaning lawmakers and interest groups, which are content with their slice of the status quo, even as overall production has slipped…
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Labels: economics, Mexico, politics
