Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Saturday, October 31, 2015

Comparative Halloween

Halloween in Russia
Halloween in Russia is not quite the same as it is in the United States. You will not see gleeful kids trick-or-treating on the Moscow streets – simply because Halloween is not celebrated among children in Russia. The holiday, originally brought to North America from Ireland, found its way into Russian night clubs about eight to ten years ago. Halloween remains new for the majority of Russian society…
Halloween in United Kingdom
Halloween celebrations in the United Kingdom include parties where guests are often expected to arrive in a costume to reflect the day's theme. Other people gather together to watch horror films, either at home or at a cinema. Some children go trick-or-treating. This means that they dress up and go to other peoples' houses, knocking on the door for treat of sweets or a snack. Those who do not give out a treat may be tricked with a joke instead.

Western Halloween in China
Halloween in China is a party day in expat-oriented bars and restaurants where a lot of expats live such as Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. The bars and restaurants frequented by foreigners will often decorate for the occasion with pictures of black cats, ghosts, and monsters, and Halloween lanterns, and there might be masquerade parties…

The Chinese have traditional days of the dead that are much more popular such as the Hungry Ghost Festival, the Qing Ming Festival, the Double 9th Festival, and the Spring Festival…

Halloween in Mexico
Halloween (Día de las Brujas) is hailed mainly as a children’s festivity in Mexico on October 31. It is often overshadowed by the Day of the Dead (Día de los Muertos) celebrations on All Saints’ Day and All Soul’s Day…
Halloween in Iran, Islamic Republic Of
Top Halloween events: No events found at present. New events are being added daily. Please check back at a later date.

Halloween in Nigeria
Top Halloween events: No events found at present. New events are being added daily. Please check back at a later date.

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Friday, October 30, 2015

Central planning 21st century style

Central planning was essential to the Soviet Union and the Peoples Republic. It still is in China, but the planning looks different than the old versions.

The five-year plan: Command performance
IN 1953, taking cues from their Soviet advisers, Chinese leaders launched their first five-year plan. They charted a course for rapid industrialisation of the then-agrarian country. Now they are drafting their 13th such document. It will show how much has changed. Its main message will be that industrialisation has run its course and that China will have to find a new engine of growth. But the very existence of the plan (to run from 2016 to 2020) is indicative of how, in economic policymaking, much has stayed the same.

China will publish the first outline after an annual meeting of the Communist Party’s Central Committee at the end of October. It will be very different from the party’s early plans. It once set specific production targets for steel and grain, among other things—hallmarks of the central planning that led China so astray. Since the early 1980s, the role of the plans has been relaxed. They clarify medium-term policy priorities, but are not blueprints that must be adhered to slavishly.

Map of the important industrial projects in PRC under the First Five Year Plan, 1956 (from
ISEModernworldhistorygrade9)
Yet the plans are still important, not least because of the attention they receive. “They are large neon signs of where the party wants to take the country,” says Scott Kennedy of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, a think-tank in Washington…

In recent years, the plans have come to encompass a wider range of priorities. Almost all the binding targets in the current one relate to the environment or social welfare… Purely economic targets such as income growth and job creation were considered predictive, not mandatory.

There will be plenty of other targets to aim for. Just over 70m people still live under the official poverty line; the plan is likely to include a pledge to expand welfare payments to lift them all above it. The government has already started to relax its one-child policy; some believe the aim in the next five years will be to abolish it altogether. There will probably be objectives for reductions in carbon emissions, investment in high-tech industries and the building of megacities. Full details will not be released until March, when China’s parliament approves the plan.

Perhaps the most intriguing element is one that will remain unmentioned by state media: the historic milestone of the new document. Such plans are one of China’s cherished inheritances from the Soviets. But the Soviet Union collapsed before it was able to see its 13th one to completion. Beating the Soviets may provide China’s party with a bigger-than-usual incentive for the rest of the decade.

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Thursday, October 29, 2015

Take me to your supreme leader

For the past several administrations it's not been easy to pinpoint China's most powerful leader. That is no longer true. How accurate are the diagrams of the regime's organization?

A very Chinese coup: Li Keqiang is the weakest Chinese prime minister in decades
Li Keqiang
TO MANY foreigners, Li Keqiang’s appointment as prime minister in 2013 was a reassuring choice for a job they assumed would involve day-to-day running of the world’s second-largest economy. A trained economist, he had played a big role in helping the World Bank and a government think-tank produce a joint report calling for bold economic reforms. A few years earlier, as a provincial leader, he had helped two areas achieve faster growth…

This summer… [a]pparent blunders by economic policymakers shook global confidence in China… Did Mr Li, who had warned that reform would be like “cutting off one’s limb”, have the skill to achieve it?…

Prime ministers have long presented China-watchers with a conundrum. In theory they run the government, while the general secretary—today, Xi Jinping—runs the party (except for a brief period after the death of Mao Zedong in 1976, when Hua Guofeng served as party chief as well as prime minister). But there is no clear divide between party and government. The actual power of prime ministers has ebbed and flowed depending on the title-holder...

[See The Economist's thumbnail sketches of the PRC's prime ministers in the whole article.]

Mr Li is more marginal than his forerunners. This was apparent during the summer, when neither he nor other leaders publicly explained the decision to intervene in the stockmarkets…

It may be that Mr Li is less of a whizz than he was made out to be. His critics point out that his record in the provinces was flawed…

He is officially ranked second in the party hierarchy, but it is ever more apparent that Mr Xi largely excludes him from day-to-day decision-making on economic policy. That is a striking change of fortune for a man once thought to be a possible candidate for the role that was eventually filled by Mr Xi… Mr Li is the son of a middle-ranking party official from the central province of Anhui who rose through the Communist Youth League as a protégé of Hu Jintao, Mr Xi’s predecessor. He is serious, low-key and somewhat professorial in manner (he has a PhD in economics from Peking University). But personal networks often matter more than policymaking and management skills. Mr Xi had the right ties, as a “princeling” whose father had been one of Mao Zedong’s aides. Mr Li has no such impressive pedigree…

Since assuming power Mr Xi has pushed Mr Li to one side and taken direct oversight of economic policy. In December 2013 he created a new committee, the Central Leading Group for Comprehensively Deepening Reform—and put himself in charge of it. He also chairs the Central Leading Group on Financial and Economic Affairs, which commissions research and makes policy. Mr Li probably approved the intervention in the stockmarkets, but the decision was mostly likely taken by Mr Xi’s financial leading group. The prime minister was excluded from the drafting of Mr Xi’s flagship economic reforms, which were endorsed by the party’s Central Committee in November 2013. He is similarly unlikely to have been heavily involved in drawing up a new five-year economic plan…

There are even rumours that Mr Li may not get a second term as prime minister in 2018, as convention would grant him. But since most policy already bypasses Mr Li, and he presents no direct challenge to Mr Xi’s position, the prime minister will probably hang on to his job. He still has valuable allies in the Central Committee and he remains the public face of China’s economic policy—the man who does the most handshaking with foreign business leaders. (His command of English helps, a skill that Mr Xi lacks.)…

After Deng Xiaoping rose to power in the late 1970s, the Communist Party adopted a more collective style of leadership than the destructive autocracy of Mao. Mr Xi is taking a different approach, apparently believing that a Putin-style strongman is needed to push through difficult changes. So far, however, he has done far better at accumulating power than executing reforms…

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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Golf club memberships in China

It was a big deal when Beijing's first golf course opened in the 1980s. Can it and all the others survive without members from the Communist Party?

China golf: Communist Party bans club membership
The Chinese Communist Party has banned all 88 million of its members from joining golf clubs, in its latest update of party discipline rules…

The new rule on golf states that members are banned from "obtaining, holding or using membership cards for gyms, clubs, golf clubs, or various other types of consumer cards, or entering private clubs".

 
If caught, members could either receive a warning or be removed from the party, depending on the severity of the violation…

The new regulations (in Chinese) did not explain why the joining of golf clubs is banned, but such clubs are often seen by the Chinese public as places where officials have cut shady deals.

In September, local media reported that at least 60 employees in state-owned companies were punished for spending public funds on playing golf.

Earlier this month, Lin Chunsong, a vice-mayor in the south-eastern Fujian province, was sacked for belonging to a golf club and playing golf while he should have been at work…

Another new rule states that party members cannot "violate official provisions on hospitality management and engage in over-the-top entertaining, or take advantage of opportunities for extravagant eating and drinking"…

President Xi Jinping has led a major anti-corruption campaign since taking office three years ago.

He has previously warned of unrest if corruption and perceived privilege within the Communist Party are not tackled.

Update 31 October from The Economist: Bunkers, banquets and bribes: Why banning golf won’t curb corruption

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Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Propagandizing the foreigners

Lindsay Tobias Arado teaches near Chicago. She posted this wonderful example of self-explanation coming out of China. Check it out. Do you think it works?

Bizarre, campy song explains China's 13th 5-year plan
After China's state-run news agency Xinhua posted the music video online overnight, it’s gone viral. A quick listen to the lyrics makes Communist centralized economic planning seem cheery…

“I think for the last few years, the Chinese government has tried to master the language of the meme culture of the Internet and new media," said Jeremy Goldkorn, founder of Danwei, a firm that tracks Chinese media and the Internet, "and they’ve perhaps done it more successfully in the Chinese Internet. But this is one of the more interesting examples of them trying to do it in English to a foreign audience.”


Besides being, quite possibly, the catchiest song ever sung about centralized planning, it also aims to educate. It harkens back to the 1980s "Schoolhouse Rock" songs from ABC, except here, it’s teaching foreigners about the challenges of governing the world’s second-largest economy…

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Law enforcement or private security

When private entities hire government police and military for private security, how is government and legitimacy affected?

Rent-a-cop: Private security is hollowing out Nigeria’s security forces
Private security is big business in Nigeria. The country suffers bombings in the north, sectarian violence in the centre and simmering insecurity in the oil-producing south-east…

Companies know better than to risk employees’ lives, or litigation, so they hire guards to scan bags at banks and shopping malls or to vet visitors to private residential estates…

Because they cannot legally carry weapons, armed units must be hired from national forces. This can breed indiscipline: “When there is corruption at the top, you expect it at the bottom,” notes one security provider…

Private companies pay the security forces handsomely. But that also encourages commanders to hire out their men. The result is a privatisation of public security, reckons Rita Abrahamsen, a professor at the University of Ottawa. In 2011 a retired deputy inspector-general estimated that up to 100,000 police officers (about a third of the country’s total) were working for “a few fortunate individuals”, and questioned what that meant for regular Nigerians…

Things may improve… Muhammadu Buhari, wants some security contracts cancelled and has told police to stop serving as dogsbodies ["people who do menial work, servants for political bigwigs and business tycoons" -Wiktionary]. He thinks they should spend more time solving crime.

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Monday, October 26, 2015

Powers of the House of Lords

This appears to be a good example of the limits on the powers of the House of Lords in the UK and the "flexibility" of the regime there.

Tax credits: Lords challenge defended by Labour and Lib Dems

Labour and the Lib Dems have defended their challenge to tax credit cuts as ministers warned of taking an "unprecedented constitutional path".
The House of Lords will vote on motions that could delay the controversial cuts or scupper them altogether.
Ministers say peers do not have the right to block financial measures approved by the House of Commons.
But Labour's shadow welfare secretary Owen Smith said such arguments were a "total sideshow"... 
Tax credits are a series of benefits introduced by the last Labour government to help low-paid families. There are two types: Working Tax Credit (WTC) for those in work, and Child Tax Credit (CTC) for those with children.

Under government proposals, the income threshold for Working Tax Credits - £6,420 - will be cut to £3,850 a year from April.

In other words, as soon as someone earns £3,850, they will see their payments reduced. The income threshold for those only claiming CTCs will be cut from £16,105 to £12,125... 

There will be similar reductions for those who claim work allowances under the new Universal Credit...

Opponents of the tax credit changes say they will leave millions of existing recipients - many of whom work but are on low incomes - some £1,300 a year worse off when they come into effect in April.

But ministers say that taking into account other changes, such as the introduction of the new national living wage, further increases in the personal tax allowance and an extension of free childcare, the majority of existing claimants will be better off.

The government is more vulnerable to defeats in the House of Lords, where it has no majority.

Lib Dem peer Baroness Kramer said the idea of a "constitutional bar" was "complete and utter rubbish".

She claimed the Conservatives were trying to make the issue a constitutional one because they have "lost the argument".

The measures have been approved on three occasions by the Commons since June but there has been growing unease on the Conservative benches about their impact and calls for Chancellor George Osborne to rethink his approach...

When they consider the proposals later, peers could be asked to vote on as many as four motions urging a different approach. Most attention has focused on a motion tabled by Liberal Democrat peer Baroness Manzoor "declining to approve" the proposals.

Constitution wars: It should not really be much of a problem - the House of Lords is not traditionally supposed to block financial legislation that has the backing of MPs.

This principle was established in 1911 during the constitutional gridlock that followed a decision by peers to block the Liberal Party's "people's budget".

But nothing is ever cut and dried in Britain's fluid, unwritten constitution. And both sides are angrily trading precedents and claiming that their opponents are overstepping the mark. If they could only agree where the mark is.

Ahead of Monday's proceedings, there has been debate over whether the House of Lords has the authority to oppose the changes.

The Upper House, whose main function is as a revising chamber, has no powers to amend or block government money bills but the tax credit changes are incorporated in a so-called statutory instrument rather than primary legislation.

According to parliamentary records, peers have killed off secondary or delegated legislation supported by the Commons on five occasions since 1945: in 1968, 2000 (twice), 2007 and 2012...


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The dilemma of England-only voting

With devolution and the possibility of Scottish independence comes the demand from some for special privilege for issues affecting only England. How do you make that work?

MPs debating 'English votes' plans
A row has erupted over plans to bring in "English votes for English laws", as MPs debate the proposals.

MPs from English seats will get an effective veto on bills that apply to England only under the plans…

But Labour and the SNP oppose the plans. The SNP said they "simply exacerbate the further alienation of Scotland from the UK Parliament".

Labour said they risked creating "two tiers" of MPs at Westminster…

Ministers say their solution will address the long-standing anomaly - known as the West Lothian Question - by which Scottish MPs can vote on issues such as health and education affecting only England - or England and Wales - but the House of Commons has no say on similar matters relating to Scotland, where such policies are devolved.

Under the reforms, an additional parliamentary stage, called a grand committee, would allow English, or English and Welsh, MPs to scrutinise bills without the involvement of Scottish MPs…

English votes: A beginner's guide
The government is attempting to change the way MPs make laws to reflect the fact that the Scottish Parliament at Holyrood is getting more power…

Why does it matter?

At the same time, he promised English MPs they would get more power too - they would be able to legislate in areas such as health and education without any input from MPs representing Scottish seats. He called it "English Votes for English Laws", which got shortened to EVEL…

Why not just set up an English Parliament?

This is what the SNP - who are firmly opposed to EVEL - claim the government is trying to do, in all but name. They claim the current plans will just make their MPs at Westminster "second class" citizens.

Some argue that an English Parliament would strengthen the SNP's case for an independent Scotland, further weakening the ties that bind the UK together…

So how will it work exactly?

All laws passed at Westminster will, in theory, continue to have the backing of the majority of MPs, just as they do now.

But an extra stage will be introduced in the middle of the law-making process, allowing English MPs to block anything they don't like the look of in bills deemed to be "England only"…

How many England-only laws are there?

Quite a lot…

The picture becomes even more murky when you consider laws that are, on the face of it, England, or England and Wales, only but have knock-on effects in Scotland and the other devolved nations.

There are also funding implications for Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland when a spending commitment is made for England only, for example on the NHS. Under the current Barnett formula grant system, the devolved administrations' funding is adjusted to take into account changes to public spending in England.

This is often controversial, for example when spending on the London Olympics was deemed to be UK-wide, rather than England-only - triggering a row between Westminster and the devolved administrations…

What is Labour saying about all this?

Labour has previously called for a "constitutional convention" to consider the issue, and has accused the Conservatives of "rushing" a decision that will enact "profound constitutional change"…

Under its previous leadership, the opposition called for devolution within England to regions and for the House of Lords to be replaced with a "Senate of the Nations and the Regions".

UPDATE, 25 October

Government accused of risking 'disunited kingdom' as Commons approves English votes for English laws

The Government was accused of risking the creation of a “disunited kingdom” after the Commons approved an historic change to give English MPs a veto over laws which affect only England...

The landmark reform has been agreed in the Commons by 312 votes to 270, a government majority of 42. Moves by Labour to derail them were rejected...

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Friday, October 23, 2015

A new aspect of China's neglect of children

It's long been known that secondary school enrollment in rural areas of China has fallen because heading to the big cities offered more opportunities than getting an education at home.

In addition to that it seems that huge numbers of children are being left in rural areas when their parents head for the bright lights and jobs.

Neglecting this resource might have economic and political repercussions.

Little match children: Children bear a disproportionate share of the hidden cost of China’s growth
Over the past generation, about 270m Chinese labourers have left their villages to look for work in cities. It is the biggest voluntary migration ever. Many of those workers have children; most do not take them along. The Chinese call these youngsters liushou ertong, or “left-behind children”. According to the All-China Women’s Federation… [and] UNICEF… there were 61m children below the age of 17 left behind in rural areas in 2010…

Just over half of the 61m counted in 2010 were living with one parent while the other spouse was away working; 29m had been left in the care of others. Mostly the carers were grandparents…

36m children had gone to live with their migrating families in cities. But this has its own problems; very few of these children can go to a state school or see a state doctor at subsidised prices in their new homes. Moreover, their hard-working parents often cannot look after the children. Without grandparents or a state school to keep an eye on them, such migrant children can be just as neglected as those left behind in the country…

Anecdotal evidence suggests that an unusual number of left-behind children have siblings. One reason for this is that China’s one-child policy has been implemented less strictly in the countryside…

Most left-behind children are lonely. Many live in rural boarding schools far from their villages because, in an attempt to improve educational standards in the countryside, the government shut many village schools down in favour of bigger institutions. About 60% of children in the new boarding schools have been left behind…

In 2010 researchers at the Second Military Medical University in Shanghai studied over 600 children in 12 villages in Shandong province, in the north-east, half left behind and half not. The difference in the physical condition of the children was minor. But the difference in their school performance was substantial and so was the emotional and social damage to them, as measured by a standard questionnaire…

[L]eft-behind children are vulnerable to sexual and other abuse…

Child abuse is distressingly common anyway. An analysis of 47 studies in Chinese and English this year estimated that over a quarter of Chinese children are physically abused at some point in their lives. The left behind are among the most vulnerable to such abuse, especially those in boarding schools, because any adults who might speak up for them are far away…

Those left behind can be perpetrators of crime as well as victims… Juvenile offences are rising in China, which may well in part be because of the increased numbers of left-behind children. Two-thirds of all Chinese juvenile offenders came from rural areas in 2010…

Given the harm that being left behind does to children’s health, education and emotional development, it is not hard to imagine that the damage will be felt not just by the left-behind themselves but by society as a whole…

At its heart, the problem of the left-behind is one of misplaced hopes. Like so many parents, China’s migrants are deferring pleasure now (that of raising their children) for the hope of a better life later (to be bought with the money they earn). One result has been the stunning growth of cities and the income they generate. Another has been a vast disruption of families—and the children left behind are bearing the burden of loss.

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Thursday, October 22, 2015

Some details from Nigeria

Nigeria's new president promised to fight corruption. He has continued to make that promise. Norimitsu Onishi, reporting for The New York Times offers some details about the fight.

And how do you suppose that, as Sola Akinrinade is quoted as saying, "Corruption will fight back"?

Nigeria President Pledges to Root Out Long-Entrenched Graft
Porsche dealership in Lagos
Private jets that used to crowd the airport here have been grounded, their wings clipped by the new government’s crackdown on corruption. Rolls-Royces, Range Rovers and Jaguars are gathering dust in the showroom of this capital’s top car dealer. Luxury villas are left unsold…

Since assuming power in May on a pledge to root out the graft that has long permeated Nigeria, President Muhammadu Buhari has squeezed the flow of public funds…

He has put many public projects on hold to review the contracts, and ordered many government ministries, departments and agencies to consolidate their bank accounts for closer monitoring of financial transactions. He has overhauled the management of the state oil company, while also moving to retrieve stolen money.

In recent days, the campaign escalated with the arrest of two high-profile figures: Diezani Alison-Madueke, the former oil minister whose five-year tenure was marred by recurring accusations of widespread theft; and the chairman of a Nigerian oil company…

“Those actions will sustain the fear that the culture of impunity is over and government’s will to prosecute is strong,” said Adams Oshiomhole, a governor leading a national panel investigating federal graft. “There’s no more free money flowing because of the attempts by the president to block it, but also the fear that, ‘If I’m caught now, I’ll be prosecuted.’”…

Whether Mr. Buhari can maintain the pressure against graft, much less transform a society where corruption thrives at all levels, is far from clear. Over the years, previous assaults on the problem have fizzled…

Many officials and businessmen said that graft under former President Goodluck Jonathan reached levels not seen since military rule ended in 1999. Billions of dollars are believed to have disappeared from activities related to the oil industry, the source of 80 percent of all government revenues…

Mr. Sagay said that his panel is also focusing on reforming the handful of government anti-corruption agencies, which, he said, have been “contaminated” by officials working in concert with those they are supposed to be investigating.

“We now have at the federal government level a government that actually appreciates the work of the anti-corruption agencies,” said Sola Akinrinade, the head of a government anti-corruption academy..

Mr. Akinrinade acknowledged, though, that previous governments had also had strong starts. After being elected president in 1999, Olusegun Obasanjo surprised many with an equally aggressive push against corruption. But within a year or two, it was business as usual in Nigeria.

“Corruption,” Mr. Akinrinade said, “will fight back.”

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Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Is there a cherry tree in the script?

In the effort to canonize George Washington as a historical hero, many books were written in the years after his death. A guy named Parson Weems included a couple moral lessons in a children's book that survived into the second half of the 20th century. One of the stories was that a very young Washington cut down a cherry tree, but fessed up to the "crime" when asked because he was an honest person.

Now the purveyors of civic wisdom will have 45 chances to teach Chinese citizens about the virtue of their president. Makes Parson Weems' efforts look puny. Will the lessons last as long?

China burnishes Xi Jinping’s legend with TV drama of his years in rural hamlet
China’s larger-than-life leader, Xi Jinping, is set to appear in his first television series, a 45-part drama depicting the time he spent in rural China during the Cultural Revolution.

Xi visited Liangjiahe in 2014
The drama, called "Liangjiahe" after the deprived hamlet in Shaanxi province where a young Xi lived from 1968 to 1975, was recently approved by China’s television regulator…

“It will tell the stories of ordinary people and their struggles,” the Shaanxi Daily newspaper reported, noting that Xi’s seven years in the community had shaped his “determined” character…

Chinese bloggers quickly identified the drama as the latest homage to a man Beijing promotes as an omnipotent ruler called “Xi Dada” or “Big Daddy Xi”…

Anne-Marie Brady.. a professor at New Zealand’s University of Canterbury… said period dramas about historical Communist party heroes had been made before. But since Xi became leader in November 2012 there has been an unusually intense focus placed on his past by Chinese television producers.

“There has actually been quite a deluge of stuff about Xi and his family and it is a bit like this programme. It is not specifically about them but you know it is about them,” Brady said.

Part of the reason for the high volume of programmes is that the official narrative of Xi’s countryside years sidesteps the horrific violence of the Red Guard era, instead telling a compelling tale of how a young man overcame rural hardship…

“He arrived at the village as a slightly lost teenager and left as a 22-year-old man determined to do something for the people,” an official profile of the Chinese president claims…

Brady said the dramatisation of Xi’s Liangjiahe years would probably boost the president’s desired image as an approachable, likable, handsome man of the people.

Western audiences are constantly bombarded with information about politicians even before they take power, Brady added. But China knew almost nothing about its top leaders. “I think the Chinese population will be interested and intrigued for any glimpse of who is this man and his family history.”

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Tuesday, October 20, 2015

Confluence Project

If you're looking for a way to get students involved in learning the geography of the places they're studying, here's an idea.

The Degree Confluence Project has as its goal to get someone to visit each of the latitude and longitude integer degree intersections in the world, and to take pictures at each location. The pictures and stories about the visits will then be posted on the project's web site.

I would assign each student to look at the report(s) for one of the "confluences." I'd ask them to tell the class about the spot, what it's like compared to other parts of the country, and to show at least one of the photographs from the site.

My preference would be to have several students report on different sites from each country and then to come up with some kind of summary for that country.

Then another group of students would report to the class on sites in another country, etc.

At the end of the six reports, the class ought to make a list of comparisons between and among the countries.

Here are the project's web pages for each of the AP6:
A photo from 52°N, 0° (UK)

A photo from 58°N, 5°W (UK)   



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Monday, October 19, 2015

Interpretation, interpretation

Rafael Behr, journalist at The Guardian offers his "translations" of David Cameron's speech to the Conservative Party's annual conference. (Remember, this is partisan politics.)

David Cameron speech at Tory conference: what he said – and what he meant
Cameron: “I am so proud to be standing here in front of you today – back in government. And not just any government – a majority Conservative government. To the people in this hall, I want to say thank you. You are the greatest team a prime minister could ever have. And to the British people: when you put your cross in the Conservative box, you were putting your faith in us. To finish the job we started. To back working people. To deliver security for you and your family."

Rafael Behr says: "This is the core message, introduced nice and high up. Working people. Security. Conservatives on the side of decent, modern Britain, Labour away with the fairies. The rest of the speech will be reinforcing that essential dividing line."

Cameron: "But just for a moment, think back to May 7th… Ed Balls had gone. And when I woke up and I switched on the radio, Nigel Farage had gone too. There was a brief moment when I thought it was all a dream. But there’s a serious point. Why did all the pollsters and the pundits get it so wrong? Because, fundamentally, they didn’t understand the people who make up our country. The vast majority of people aren’t obsessives, arguing at the extremes of the debate. Let me put it as simply as I can: Britain and Twitter are not the same thing.

Rafael Behr says: "Shameless pitch here to the many people who think Twitter is a waste of time and a mild rebuke to the journalists who spend all of their spare hours on it."

Cameron: "The British people are decent, sensible, reasonable, and they just want a government that supports the vulnerable, backs those who do the right thing and helps them get on in life. Good jobs; a decent home; better childcare; controlled immigration; lower taxes so there’s more money at the end of the month; an NHS that’s there for them, seven days a week; great schools; dignity in retirement. That is what people want and that is what we will deliver. The party of working people, the party for working people – today, tomorrow, always. Ten years ago, I stood on a stage just like this one and said if we changed our party we could change our country. We’ve done that – together."

Behr: "Cameron is thinking about his legacy here – and the succession. The fact is, the Tory leader has always out-polled his party. Even in May many people were persuaded to back the Conservatives because they trusted Cameron as PM (and didn't want Miliband). So in this section, he is trying to make the point that the “modernisation” of the party has succeeded; that the brand has been decontaminated. In essence he is saying to the soft supporters out in the country: you may have come for Cameron, but stick around for the rest of the Tories, you'll be pleasantly surprised."

Cameron: "I can say something today that perhaps no prime minister has ever really been able to say before. I’m starting the second half of my time in this job. As you know, I am not going to fight another election as your leader. So I don’t have the luxury of unlimited time. Let me tell you: I am in just as much of a hurry as five years ago. Securing our country, growing our economy; jobs, exports, growth, infrastructure … these are the stepping stones on the path to greatness for our country – and we’ve been laying them every day since we came to office. We will continue to do so. But to make Britain greater, we need to tackle some deep social problems - problems we only just made a start on, as we focused on the economic emergency that faced us. The scourge of poverty. The brick wall of blocked opportunity. The shadow of extremism – hanging over every single one of us. A Greater Britain doesn’t just need a stronger economy – it needs a stronger society."

Behr: "It has always annoyed Cameron that his “big society” theme never really got off the ground. He knows that lingering suspicion about Tory attitudes towards the poor remains a significant drag on the party's popularity – the most stubborn residue of brand contaminant. So he is trying to leverage public confidence (misplaced or not) in his capacity to fix the economy to bid for the contract to fix society too."

Cameron: "And delivering this social reform is entirely fitting with the great history of the Conservative party who have always been the optimists, the agents of hope and the leaders of change. That’s why I joined it. That’s why I wanted to lead it. And now, in my final term as prime minister, I say: let’s live up to the greatest traditions of Conservative social reform. In all the challenges we face, we will be guided by our Conservative values.Our belief in strong defence and sound money. Our belief in an enterprise economy, that if you set free the ambition that burns so deeply within the British people, they will strike out on their own, take on new workers, take on the world. Our belief in equality of opportunity, as opposed to equality of outcome. Not everyone ending up with the same exam results, the same salary, the same house – but everyone having the same shot at them."

Behr: "This is a caveat dressed up as a bold assertion. Cameron wants to be in favour of equality – who doesn't – but he won't go as far as some of his more liberal, one-nation colleagues go in suggesting that there is something ultimately unfair about a massive gap between the top and the bottom; that society becomes less cohesive and less pleasant when the spread of wealth and incomes gets too vast. In this respect, the prime minister is more orthodox Thatcherite conservative. By all means let's level the playing field, he says, but don't expect me to start knocking the rich for being rich. "

Cameron: "Another big judgment call to make is when a refugee crisis confronts our world. Like most people, I found it impossible to get the image of that poor Syrian boy Aylan [sic] Kurdi out of my mind. We know in our hearts our responsibilities to help those fleeing for their lives. But we know, too, that we must keep our heads. Let’s start with a simple fact. Twelve million people have been made homeless by the conflict in Syria. And so far only 4% of them have come to Europe. If we opened the door to every refugee, our country would be overwhelmed. The best thing Britain can do is help neighbouring countries, the Syrian people and the refugees in the camps and when we do take refugees, to take them from the region, rather than acting in a way that encourages more to make that dangerous journey. As we do this, let’s remember: we haven’t only just started caring about Syrians."

Behr: "Here Cameron deftly segues from refugees to foreign aid to national security and the army. He starts talking about an issue that makes Tory members uncomfortable – and on which many resent him; then steers through one that makes them irritable to one that makes them rise to their feet and cheer our heroic armed forces. Only later will they realise the sleight of hand. Was that really the only thing he had to say about immigration? Clever. "

Cameron: "This is Britain. We don’t duck fights. We get stuck in. We fix problems. That’s how we kept our border checkpoints when others decided to take theirs down. It’s how we kept the pound when others went head first into the Euro. Because we do things our way. We get rebates. We get out of bailouts. But do you know what? It’s not just what we get out of, it’s what we get Europe into. Who do you think got Europe to open trade talks with America, which would be the biggest trade deal in our history? Who do you think got Europe to agree to sanctions on Iran, which brought that country to the negotiating table? Us. Britain. We did. Believe me, I have no romantic attachment to the European Union and its institutions. I’m only interested in two things: Britain’s prosperity and Britain’s influence. That’s why I’m going to fight hard in this renegotiation – so we can get a better deal and the best of both worlds."

Behr: "This is about as strong a defence of Britain's EU membership as Cameron has dared make directly at a Tory conference. He realises he has to rise above the details of the renegotiation at some point and make his case to the country based on the broader national interest. So he is starting now. Note also that “best of both worlds” was the strategic pitch that the no camp in the Scottish referendum were aiming for – distinct national identity plus all the economic benefits of the union; have your cake and eat it. Cameron will be aiming for something like that in his EU referendum campaign."

Cameron: "And if we’re to be the global success story of the 21st century, we need to write millions of individual success stories. A Greater Britain – made of greater expectations …

"Where renters become homeowners, employees become employer, a small island becomes an even bigger economy and where extremism is defeated once and for all. A Greater Britain, no more, its people dragged down or held back, no more, some children with their noses pressed to the window as they watch the world moving ahead without them. No – a country raising its sights, its people reaching new heights. A Great British take-off – that leaves no one behind.

"That’s our dream – to help you realise your dreams. A Greater Britain – made of greater hope, greater chances, greater security. So let’s get out there – all of us – and let’s make it happen."

Behr: "Hear now the strains of patriotic tunes – Land of Hope and Glory maybe, or better still, God Save the Queen, and then ponder how lustily Cameron would sing it while a sullen and tight-lipped Jeremy Corbyn stands next to him. That is the image the prime minister wants you to have in mind as you consider which of the two major parties really has Britain's best interests at heart. "



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Friday, October 16, 2015

Complexities of politics

Ask students to draw a diagram of the balances of power in the Iranian regime based on this analysis. Then compare their diagrams to those in their text books.

Why did Iran’s parliament hold hearings on the nuclear deal?
In July, Iranian state television broadcast a live U.S. congressional hearing to the general public for the first time in its history. Although the testimony at the hearing was replete with bitter rhetoric directed at the Iranian government, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei managed to exploit it for his own purposes. Following the hearings, Khamenei authorized the Iranian parliament (Majles) to become involved in the nuclear deal — from which it had previously been excluded — as a kind of retaliatory measure…

After the nuclear deal was reached in Vienna, attacks on the agreement — by Republicans, by the State of Israel and by some Gulf Cooperation Council members — commenced. They were so severe that Iran’s Supreme Leader began having concerns about the possibility of unilateral termination by the United States… In August, Khamenei insisted that nothing was final; both the United States and Iran could potentially reject the deal… Inviting the Majles to participate in the process was, perhaps, a means of hedging his [Khamenei's] bets…

The public difference of opinion would show the West that the nuclear agreement was not a done deal on the Iranian side, either, suggesting that if the radicals won, Iran would resume enrichment, inspiring the West to make more concessions. The underlying message was that the nuclear deal could be reversed entirely by Iran as well, not just the United States, at any time…

The [Majlis debate] proved a useful tool to restrain Rouhani’s reformist agenda without Khamenei’s direct involvement. The MPs went so far as to suggest that Rouhani was incapable of hold office. Such criticism ensured that Rouhani would need greater support from Khamenei against the extremists, increasing the Leader’s bargaining power vis-à-vis reforms that the president might seek in other areas.

The extremist current… during Ahmadinejad’s presidency was able to suppress all dissenting voices. With the rise of the Rouhani government and the conclusion of the nuclear deal, these extremists were on shaky ground… By involving the Majles in the nuclear deal, the Supreme Leader may be seeking to mobilize fundamentalists and IRGC forces in advance of the parliamentary election.

If extremists lacked opportunities… to play a role in Iran’s foreign policy, they might become more active within the existing order and eventually could become dangerous for Khamenei himself…

Khamenei’s involvement of the Majles was a clever ploy designed to achieve both internal and external objectives. By designing a game with much fanfare but without significant adverse impact on the deal, the Iranian leader has provided an outlet for the deal’s opponents that also enables him to contain them. We will have to wait and see if these efforts pay off.

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