More confusion in Commons

Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom has quit the cabinet, saying she no longer believes the government's approach will deliver Brexit.

Her resignation comes amid a backlash against Theresa May's Brexit plan from Conservative MPs…

[As Commons leader, she was in charge of organising government business and had been due to announce when the prime minister's Withdrawal Agreement Bill would be introduced to Parliament.]

Her resignation is the 36th by a minister under Theresa May - 21 of them over Brexit…

The move came after a day of drama at Westminster in which anger grew at the prime minister's attempt to win backing for the bill - the legislation needed to implement the agreement between the UK and EU on the terms of Brexit.

As part of it, Mrs May has offered a number of changes, including a chance for MPs to hold a vote on another referendum if they back the bill…

BBC political correspondent Jonathan Blake said… "It is an extraordinary sequence of events for a key member of the Cabinet to resign on the eve of elections.

"It is unlikely that we will see others follow her immediately, but getting into Friday and the weekend, things could move swiftly."…

Labels: Brexit, Commons, leadership, politics, UK

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

How's he doing?

When Mexico's populist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected by a landslide in July, some analysts warned that he could quickly lose support once in office, especially if he failed to deliver on his ambitious promise of delivering a "radical transformation" of his country.

President López Obrado

Four months after his swearing-in, his approval ratings range between 60% and 86% and are the envy of many other leaders in the hemisphere.

But how has the 65 year old commonly referred to as Amlo fared so far and what problems has he been able to tackle?

Just weeks into the top job, Amlo announced that he had launched an operation to fight widespread theft from oil pipelines, a nationwide problem costing the Mexican state about $3bn (£2.3bn) each year.

Besides deploying thousands of troops in the operation, his government also shut down major oil pipelines that criss-cross the country. Almost immediately, shortages of fuel in major cities were reported, causing massive queues at petrol stations.

Nevertheless, polls showed Mexicans supported the crackdown, and normal fuel supply has since been restored.

Official figures suggest the move has significantly reduced the amount of oil being illegally siphoned off daily, from 81,000 barrels in November of 2018 to 4,000 in the first months of 2019…

Amlo has sought an attitude of "peace and love" towards his northern neighbour despite recent public threats by Mr Trump that he would "close the border" with Mexico if the Mexican government failed to stop Central American migrants reaching the United States…

One area where President López Obrador has yet to make an impact is on Mexico's soaring murder rate. This reached a new annual record in 2018 with 28,839 violent homicides across the country, a 15% increase over 2017.

The murder rate has continued to climb since Amlo came to power. In the first quarter of 2019, 8,493 murders were reported, an increase of almost 10% compared with the same months in 2018, according to Mexican government data.

In a speech he gave on 11 March, Amlo acknowledged that "the population is currently in a defenceless state".

"Violence, as we have said many times, cannot be fought with violence (…), the construction of a better, more just and more humane society is the starting point of our public safety policy," he said.

In a move approved by Mexico's Congress, the president has created a new security agency, the National Guard, to enforce his strategy to reduce crime and violence related to Mexico's powerful drug cartels…

He travels around the country on commercial flights after putting Mexico's Dreamliner presidential plane up for sale arguing that it was too lavish for the leader of a country where millions live in extreme poverty.

On his first day in office he also ordered the presidential residence, Los Pinos, to be opened to the public and turned into a cultural centre.

Mr López Obrador and his family will continue to live at their middle-class home in Mexico City's Tlalpan neighbourhood until his youngest son finishes elementary school in mid-2019.

After that, they plan to move to a midsize apartment near his office at Mexico's National Palace, from where he says he will continue to work towards a "fourth transformation" in Mexico's history, following its 1810 independence, the 1854-1857 liberalising reforms led by then-President Benito Juárez, and the wars of the 1910-1920 Revolution.

Labels: leadership, Mexico, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

He's back…

President Muhammadu Buhari… returned to Abuja, after a 10-day 'private visit' to the United Kingdom…

Buhari

A statement by his spokesperson, Femi Adesina, said some "reckless online media, irresponsible political opposition, and other bilious groups and individuals, had gone on overdrive since the President left the country on April 25, insinuating that he was going for hospitalization, and would not return after 10 days as stated."…

The presidency did not provide details of Mr Buhari's 'private visit,' leading to speculations he travelled to see his doctors as he has done in the past…

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Mobile campaign signs or political spiff?

Rotimi Akeredolu, Governor of Ondo State, has ordered the withdrawal of all the branded vehicles he donated for the re-election bid and campaign of President Muhammadu Buhari ahead of the 2019 general election, SaharaReporters can exclusively report.

The vehicles donated by Akeredolu before the election were presented to some leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state…

As of press time, the motives behind the withdrawal of the branded campaign vehicles were not known to the party leaders/members, who have been grumbling underground since the decision was effected.

To further confirm withdrawal of the branded vehicles, SaharaReporters exclusively obtained a terse memo calling on leaders and members of the party in possession of the branded vehicles to return them…

Multiple sources in the ruling party in the state, who spoke with SaharaReporters, expressed great dissatisfaction with the order for return of the vehicles.

These sources wondered why Akeredolu would abruptly call for the return of vehicles that were given to them as gifts…

When SaharaReporters contacted Alhaji Yusuf Sanya Isiaka, the Senior Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Governor, he said the vehicles were not really "gifts" but were only given out to aid campaigns.

"What the Governor did was to give those buses for campaign purposes; it was not a gift," he said.

"It was just to aid their campaign programme during the electioneering period, and the arrangment was that after the election, it should be return. So, that was the arrangment between them and the MHAs (members of the House of Assembly).

"So, they were aware... before these buses were handed over to them, they were all told that they would return them after campaign. And they have actually complied. If it was a gift, nobody would comply. it was not a gift."

Labels: campaign, corruption, elections, leadership, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigeria's Chief Justice Onnoghen Gets the Boot

Nigeria: CCT Convicts, Sacks Onnoghen As Chief Justice, NJC Chairman

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, rule of law

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Old news revisited

Monday [marked] the publication of lengthy excerpts – 6,000 words in total – from a speech Xi gave in January 2013, less than two months after he became party chief and two months before he was confirmed as the state president…

Though innocuously titled “A few issues on upholding and developing socialism with Chinese characteristics” and made public six years later, those excerpts… are still significant and relevant today, because of their timing and content.

On January 5 six years ago, Xi gave that speech to about 300 newly appointed members of the party’s Central Committee with the rest of the seven-member Politburo Standing Committee – the country’s highest governing council – present at the auditorium of the Central Party School.

Some of the Chinese leadership

That was probably the first time Xi had revealed his intentions in detail to China’s political elites…

According to the excerpts, Xi struck a forceful but frank tone in laying out his vision for the party and the country and warning of the dangers ahead.

Citing Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels, Xi said socialism would triumph over capitalism but cited Deng Xiaoping as saying that it would be a long historical process, which would probably take several dozens of generations.

He warned that the collapse of the Soviet Union served as a painful lesson for the party. The underlying reason for the collapse was that the Soviet Communist Party had lost its ideological controls, he said.

[H]e said the party’s decision to pursue reform and opening up in 1978 had ensured the country would achieve stability and prosperity without copying the Western system…

Even more interestingly, he recognised that Western developed countries would maintain long-term economic, technological, and military advantages and China must be fully prepared for the two systems – socialism in its primary stage and a more advanced capitalism – to cooperate and struggle for a long time to come.

As China must learn and borrow from capitalism, it must face the reality that people would compare the strong points of Western developed countries with the shortcomings of China’s socialist development and be critical, Xi said…

The timing of the release [of the speech] is also significant as several politically sensitive anniversaries are coming up.

June marks the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen protests and the subsequent bloody government crackdown. Efforts to mark the occasion will again focus the international spotlight on China’s political system and spur calls for political reform.

In October, China will hold elaborate ceremonies to mark the 70 anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic. While China has lots to celebrate – its economic strength and its lifting of hundreds of millions of people out of poverty, for example – Chinese leaders will be reminded of the enormous domestic challenges ahead…

China’s economy may be the world’s second largest already and Xi has undertaken comprehensive and forceful steps to strengthen the party’s control at all levels of society, but its leaders are still smarting from the collapse of the then 69-year-old Soviet Union in 1991.

The release of Xi’s six-year-old speech is aimed at sending a clear message on where he stands on these thorny political issues.

The analyst who wrote this essay is Wang Xiangwei the former editor-in-chief of the South China Morning Post. He is now based in Beijing as editorial adviser to the paper. The South China Morning Post is an independent newspaper that almost always follows the Communist Party line.

Labels: China, history, ideology, leadership, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Touchy, touchy

Police surveillance around the late Chinese leader Zhao Ziyang’s family residence was tightened on Friday, as friends and relatives paid tribute to the purged Communist Party leader on China’s tomb sweeping day, ahead of the 30th anniversary of the Tiananmen student-led protests…

“Police security is tighter this year [than in previous years]. The monitoring area stretches from the hutongs (alleys) around our home to the main road,” said Wang Yannan, Zhao's daughter, on Friday…

Zhao, who was purged for siding with the students in 1989, spent the last 15 years of his life under house arrest. He died on January 17, 2005.

The Communist Party has branded the student-led movement a rebellion and barred any public commemoration…

Labels: China, history, leadership, politics, Tianamen

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Shiny new app, same old propaganda

If there’s one thing we know for certain about China in 2019, it’s that people there love their apps. They use WeChat to talk with friends; they spend hours battling virtual enemies on PUBG; they binge-watch short videos on Douyin. And so why shouldn’t the Communist Party get in on the action?

Xuexi Qiangguo — “study and make the nation great” — has become ubiquitous in China, an instant messenger, news aggregator and social network all in one introduced by the Publicity Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party in January. The first and second characters in the name, when combined — xuexi — mean “study/learn”; the same character, xi, also happens to be the character in President Xi Jinping’s surname. The app’s name, thus, can also be read as “study Xi and make the nation great.” And the Chinese are doing so, by the tens of millions.

As of late March, Xuexi Qiangguo had been downloaded over 73 million times on Huawei’s app store. It’s also currently the most-downloaded app on Apple’s Chinese app store, which is hard to reconcile with its average rating of just 2.7 stars out of five, until you take into account that all government and state-owned-enterprise employees, along with tens of millions of party members, have been “encouraged” to use it…

I wanted to experience Xuexi Qiangguo for myself… So last month I downloaded it and signed on. Suddenly there I was, immediately connected to my friends and colleagues. In the weeks since, I’ve been receiving several notifications a day; they include news coverage of Mr. Xi’s activities, a “golden quote of the day” from our president, “red patriotic songs” for me to listen to and links to online courses on traditional Chinese cultural heritage.

To do well on Xuexi Qiangguo requires a serious time commitment; those under peer pressure to use the app are typically expected to score two or three dozen points a day, and sometimes more. “Thirty points per day would only put me at the bottom among the members of the party branch I belong to,” one user on Weibo, China’s equivalent of Twitter, told me. “My colleagues are so passionate about competing,” the user said…

But to really score highly, I needed to take the quizzes — to answer questions on Mr. Xi’s speeches and works. That was where the real points were: If I correctly answered all the quiz questions, I could earn 24 points total.

And the questions were easy. The first one I encountered: “(Blank) is contemporary China’s Marxism, the 21st century’s Marxism, the guidance for our Party and our people to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, a proven, practically great, powerful ideological weapon, and must be persisted in and developed consistently over a long term.” The answer? “Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era,” of course. What else?

Another question looked trickier at first glance: “Sticking to the Party’s overall leadership and coordination among different sectors, to build up a system with the Party’s full leadership role, and guarantee that the Party’s leadership is carried out in domains such as (blank), (blank), and (blank)”. Luckily, it was multiple choice. Among the answers were (A) Reforming, development and maintaining stability; (B) Domestic politics, foreign policy and defense; and (C) Governing the Party, the nation and the military. The answer was all of the above; the party is omnipotent, our leader in all arenas.

I gave up after about half an hour, earning a measly nine points. “Post your point of view and collect one point,” the app prompted. Why not? I thought, and moved into the comment section, only to be greeted with instructions like “only valid points of view will be awarded points” and “good comments will be prioritized for display.”…

Developed by the tech giant Alibaba, Xuexi Qiangguo has a certain polish to it. And it comes with some additional perks: Users can redeem their study points in businesses across the country for gifts like pastries, tablets, restaurant discounts and even free sightseeing tickets.

But no matter how fancy the new products look on the surface, at their core they remain the mandatory study of ideologically correct materials and the demonstration of allegiance to the central government. The minute I entered the quiz section, memories of my middle school years in Chinese classrooms came flooding back: the grandiose language, the endless repetition, the fixed answers, the publicly displayed class rankings — the collective memories of Chinese students across several generations. Many Weibo users have pointed out the parallels between Xuexi Qiangguo and the fervent “Little Red Book” campaigns of the Mao era.

And as with so many instances in which the government demands correct thought, there are already those who have learned to cheat the system. There are a sizable number of articles on how to earn credits efficiently circulating on WeChat, while tech-savvy users have turned to GitHub to download software that will earn points for them on the app automatically while they spend their time elsewhere…

So how effective has this new app effort been? Online user feedback is currently prohibited on the Apple app store, so we can gauge user’s reactions only through their earlier comments, before feedback was turned off. “Good, good, good,” one reviewer wrote. “Whatever you want me to say.” “We voluntarily downloaded this,” wrote another reviewer, who gave the app one star. “Truly.”

Labels: China, ideology, leadership, political socialization, propaganda

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Promises from a former military dictator

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has said he would not waiver in his commitment to due process and preserving the sanctity of the rule of law.

The President made the statement at the final day of the 50th Convocation Ceremonies of the University of Lagos…

Buhari's speech read: “With the 2019 general election that have come and gone, we as a nation have once again reiterated our choice of democracy as the system of government by which we hope to imbibe an all-round development.

“Our administration is committed to ensuring that the sacredness of that choice is preserved. With this policy enunciated and every programme instituted, we shall ensure that our democratic culture takes firmer roots and legacies further consolidated.

“Let me reiterate that my administration will not waver in its commitment to following due process, preserving the sanctity of the rule of law, battling grand corruption, securing the lives and property of our people and rehabilitating or upgrading our critical infrastructure.

“We will continue to be unrelenting in enthroning hard work, honesty and place the welfare of our citizens above everything else… "

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, rule of law

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

And the winner is (or will be)…

The upcoming transition could remake Iran, the world’s only Shiite theocracy, and alter the geopolitics of the Middle East, where Iran has been projecting its influence in places such as Syria and Iraq.

But the inner workings of Iran’s Islamic system — which is based on a contested Shiite doctrine known as wilayat al-faqih, or “guardianship of the jurist” — is notoriously opaque. And efforts to determine the next steps have become somewhat of a parlor game in both the Iranian capital Tehran and in Najaf. The names being bandied about to succeed the supreme leader include those of the chief of the judiciary, the head of a powerful advisory council and Khamenei’s own son.

The clergy in Najaf, the primary center of Shiite theology in the world, are for the most part averse to the idea of a supreme religious and political authority and operate independently of the clerical establishment in Iran…

“Khamenei now is a very strong leader,” said Sheikh Khaled al-Baghdadi, a Najaf cleric clad in a white turban and loose brown robe… Baghdadi is among those who doubt the theological legitimacy of the supreme leader position but acknowledges that Khamenei has made effective use of the role…

But even as Khamenei has consolidated power — promoting allies and empowering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is tasked with safeguarding the Islamic system — Iran is facing an uncertain period as its economy falters and tensions with the United States rise. At home, rampant corruption and soaring inflation have stunted economic growth and angered ordinary Iranians. Abroad, Iran is confronting a U.S. pressure campaign that seeks to isolate the Islamic Republic…

Such instability, experts say, could undermine an otherwise smooth succession. And that has many Iranians ill at ease…

According to Iran’s constitution, if Khamenei dies or is otherwise incapacitated, a leadership council would be formed to lead for an interim period. A separate body, known as the Assembly of Experts, is responsible for naming a successor…

“The next leader should at least have experience leading the judicial, executive or legislative branch,” said Mohsen Kadivar, a former cleric and Iranian political dissident who teaches Islamic studies at Duke University.

But because the stakes are so high, analysts say, it is likely that the formal process will be bypassed in favor of more covert negotiations. The Revolutionary Guard in particular will hold powerful sway over the process, experts say.

“The person chosen by Khamenei will be announced . . . after the candidate receives approval from Revolutionary Guard commanders,” Kadivar said.

Labels: Iran, leadership, politics, rule of law

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Democracy in the Peoples Republic

The annual sitting of the National People’s Congress, China’s well-fed eunuch of a parliament, poses several tests for foreign reporters. Though its committees may suggest tweaks to new laws, and some play a diplomatic role engaging with foreign legislators, meetings of its 3,000 or so delegates are mostly very dull…

There is the odd experience of meeting supposed colleagues who are in fact complete strangers, meaning foreigners employed by Chinese state media, or by obscure Western news outlets that channel Chinese propaganda. Some ask planted questions at press conferences. Others pop up in the state media lauding China’s political system. Xinhua, China’s official news agency, this year put out a video entitled “Chinese democracy in the eyes of an American”. A fresh-faced young man from Chicago, Colin Linneweber, strolls around Tiananmen Square while opining that “it’s widely acknowledged that a key to China’s success is its system of democracy”, and praising the country’s “stability”. He then presents mini-profiles of delegates with such day jobs as farmer, migrant worker and postman, whose proposals for making China better became law. It is tempting to be quite cross with such Westerners. Ordinary Chinese who start praising democracy on the square, a ghost-haunted, massively policed spot, would be instantly arrested. Stability comes at a price, what is more. China’s one-party rule involves more than the absence of messy things like real elections or a free press. It requires active, unsleeping maintenance by state-security agents tasked with tracking, threatening or jailing any who challenge the Communist monopoly on power.

As far back as China’s civil war, party leaders called themselves democrats, unlike their dictatorial rivals, the Nationalist Party or Kuomintang. In 1945 Mao Zedong impressed Chinese intellectuals when he assured a businessman and educational reformer, Huang Yanpei, that democracy would help a Communist government avoid cycles of triumph and decline that doomed imperial dynasties. “Only when a government is subject to the people’s supervision will it not dare to slacken,” Mao declared…

After Mao’s death, when economic opening was not matched by political liberalisation, party leaders sounded a bit defensive about that choice, assuring foreigners that only a firm grip on their vast country could avoid chaos. In the 1990s rule passed to Jiang Zemin, an admirer of Western culture who loved to quote Abraham Lincoln’s call for government of, by and for the people. Asked by an American interviewer whether China was a dictatorship, Mr Jiang replied that he was the elected head of a collective party leadership, although the method of his election had to take account of China’s levels of economic and educational development.

Jump to the present day, and foreigners hear no such half-apologies from the China led by President Xi Jinping. Mr Xi calls China a socialist, consultative democracy, featuring the “orderly participation” of the people and always under the party’s control. Today, state media hail China’s political system as far more responsive and effective than the West’s “conflict-driven”, money-tainted politics…

The Asian Barometer Survey, run by National Taiwan University, has on four occasions quizzed the Chinese public about democracy. Writing in the Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Yue Yin, a political scientist, notes that a narrow majority of the survey’s respondents in China support press censorship in the name of stability, while two-thirds say they are at ease with one-party rule. Yet accountability matters. Nearly 80% reject a government in which “experts decide everything” and 60% say the public should be free to criticise the authorities.

That suggests another way to understand propaganda films in which foreigners call the legislature a beacon of democracy. Such videos are a backhanded tribute to the West. An American’s views on accountable government carry weight, because ordinary Chinese know that American voters can kick the bums out. For now, China’s rulers still mind when their authoritarian system is judged against Western norms. When they no longer think they need the Colin Linnewebers of this world, start worrying.

Labels: China, democracy, history, leadership, regime

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Don't despair. Trust the Party.

China’s biggest political advisory body has been told to stick to the directives of the Communist Party to confront risks and tasks Beijing called “unprecedented”.

President Xi and Premier Li applaud Wang's speech

“[We] should treat studying the political thoughts of Xi Jinping as the most important task of all, and consolidate the self-confidence in our political system,” Wang Yang, head of the China People’s Political Consultative Conference, said at the closing ceremony of the body’s annual session…

Wang’s words were addressed to more than 2,000 members of the CPPCC, the country’s biggest political advisory body, which includes former officials, academics, business owners and religious leaders from across the country.

At the opening ceremony of the 10-day session on March 3, Wang, the fourth-highest-ranking official in the Communist Party, said China was facing “unprecedented” level of risks, challenges and social demands this year.

He said the advisory body should strengthen consensus building on issues of sensitivity and risk, and guide various sectors to objectively view changing domestic and international situations and the risks they pose with China’s reform and development.

His remarks came as China is locked in a costly trade war with the United States and facing setbacks in its attempts to spread its influence around the world. At home, China is faced with its slowest economic growth in decades, while trying to carry out structural reforms and fend off financial risks…

Beijing is also faced with a series of unflattering milestones this year, including the 30th anniversary of the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations, the 60th anniversary of the exile of Tibet spiritual leader Dalai Lama, the 10th anniversary of the deadly clashes in Xinjiang and the 20th anniversary of its crackdown on spiritual group Falun Gong.

Beijing-based political commentator Zhang Lifan said the government was reaching out to various interest groups as it dealt with pressure from the trade war with the United States and slow economic growth, but the outcome might not be satisfying.

“It’s being played up to reach out to overseas Chinese, the private sector and other groups to rally support for Xi and the party,” Zhang said, “but it could barely convince those who are not loyal parties already.”

Labels: China, ideology, leadership, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

How goes the new presidency in Mexico?

"POWER STUNS the intelligent and drives fools mad.” Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s president, repeats this adage often, as a rebuke to politicians who promise much and accomplish little. On March 4th, the 94th day of his presidential term, he tweeted the phrase again to show that power has neither stunned nor maddened him, and that he will keep his promise to transform Mexico.

Mr López Obrador, or AMLO, as he is known, has already brought considerable change. He cancelled construction of a part-built international airport, stopped new private investment in the oil industry and shut down fuel pipelines to prevent theft… AMLO has cut the salaries of senior officials and bureaucrats, including his own, and put their cars up for auction. He travels about by commercial airliner.

More than three-quarters of Mexicans like what they see. Nearing 100 days in office, AMLO is more popular than any president at that stage bar Vicente Fox, the first president of the democratic era…

His plan to achieve this involves restoring the state to its earlier position as the main underwriter of Mexicans’ well-being…

AMLO’s statism does not preclude co-operation with the private sector. As Mexico City’s mayor in the early 2000s, he worked closely with firms, for example to rebuild the city’s centre. Many of the infrastructure projects he plans, such as the “Maya train” through the south, will need private or foreign finance. But no one will doubt that the train comes from him.

AMLO has begun by giving more money directly to individuals. His government has doubled pension benefits and made more people eligible for them. It set a minimum price for beans grown in the state of Zacatecas. Eventually, most major crops across Mexico will have support prices. The government will give scholarships and grants to 2.3m young adults…

Change is coming to child care. The “children’s room” programme created by Felipe Calderón, president from 2006 to 2012, pays 950 pesos a month per child to women who provide day care in their neighbourhoods, often their homes. Some 300,000 mothers use the programme. Many do not realise that the state is subsidising the bill. AMLO plans to correct this (and save some money) by paying mothers 800 pesos a month directly.

The pesos-for-the-people approach may not always help its intended beneficiaries. AMLO said he would end subsidies for women’s shelters but failed to explain how he would give money to victims of domestic abuse. After an outcry, he retreated.

Seeming generous will sustain his popularity only if he keeps other promises, especially to reduce crime and corruption, and keep the economy strong…

The biggest threat to his popularity is the economy. The central bank has revised its projection of GDP growth for this year down from 2.2% to 1.6%. Foreign direct investment in the last quarter of 2018 was 15% below its level a year before, partly because investors distrust AMLO…

But for now, millions of Mexicans are cheering a windfall, and the president, just as he hopes…

Labels: economics, leadership, Mexico, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

The next supreme leader in Iran?

Hardline Iranian cleric Ebrahim Raisi was elected on Tuesday as deputy chief of the Assembly of Experts, an influential clerical body which chooses the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.

Raisi

He got the job less than a week after he was appointed head of the judiciary - making the protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a key player in Iran’s politics.

A potential contender to succeed Khamenei, Raisi is a former presidential candidate seen as having close links to the elite Revolutionary Guards. He helped oversee the execution of political prisoners in 1988 when he was deputy prosecutor in Tehran…

As deputy chief of the 88-member Assembly of Experts, he is likely to play a prominent role in selecting the next supreme leader.

Raisi’s position as the head of the judiciary, who is appointed by the supreme leader, is also a powerful position in a country that has long used its legal system to crack down on political dissent.

Iran says its judiciary is independent, and its judgements and rulings are not influenced by political interests.

Labels: Iran, leadership, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Presidential reassurance

As a candidate, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico promised to remake Mexico, vowing to end corruption and impunity, attack inequality, pacify the country and disrupt a status quo that, he said, favored the few — the wealthy and powerful — and marginalized everyone else.

On Monday, in a confident speech marking his first 100 days in office, he insisted that transformation was firmly underway.

AMLO at the podium

“We have already begun to write the prologue of the great work of national transformation,” he declared. “We will continue to build, among everyone, the beautiful utopia. We are going to continue walking toward that great ideal of living in a new, free, fair, democratic and fraternal homeland.”

Most Mexicans seem to agree, giving their folksy, man-of-the-people president stratospheric approval ratings. Some recent surveys put his support above 80 percent…

Despite Mr. Lopez Obrador’s popularity, doubt and antipathy abound among some sectors of the Mexican population. His speech didn’t dwell much on the less favorable and widely criticized aspects of his term, most notably weaknesses in the national economy…

In his speech, which was broadcast live on television from the presidential palace in downtown Mexico City, the president extolled his signature achievements to date.

He said his government had begun delivering on its promises to buoy the poor and marginalized through an array of social welfare and development programs, including increasing pensions and other benefits for the elderly, expanding student scholarship programs for the impoverished and promoting job-creation initiatives for the young.

He also underlined the creation of a new security force, the National Guard, which will be in charge of the nation’s public security. And he highlighted his government’s push to combat fuel theft, which, he said, had led to “good results,” including cutting the monthly volume of stolen fuel from 81,000 barrels in November to the current rate of 15,000 barrels…

Mr. Lopez used the speech, which ran nearly 80 minutes, to deliver not only a list of greatest hits in the administration’s first three months but also an outline of the evolving blueprint for the rest of his term in office.

He reiterated his promise to cancel a sweeping education reform that was a signature effort of his predecessor, and to push, among other initiatives, major infrastructure and public works projects including a new oil refinery, roads, an airport expansion and a rail line that would stretch through several southern states and create, he said, 300,000 jobs during the construction phase.

“I am convinced that everything we do to reactivate the economy, to produce, to create jobs and achieve the material and cultural well-being of the people will result in social peace and tranquillity,” he said. “If there is justice, there will be security.”

Labels: leadership, Mexico, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigeria: failed democracy?

You know a democracy is in trouble when two out of three voters don’t bother to turn up for a presidential election. In Nigeria’s just-concluded presidential poll, incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected with the backing of 15.2 million voters compared to the 11.3 million votes his main rival Atiku Abubakar, was able to amass…

The 35% voter turnout was down from 44% in the 2015 presidential election and way down from the 54% turnout in 2011. In fact, turnout for Nigerian presidential elections has been dropping at an alarmingly consistent rate since 2003. So why are increasingly fewer Nigerians feeling the need to vote in elections that decide the most powerful political office?

Poor organisation is one reason. The last three elections were all postponed at the last minute, causing frustration as well as suspicion that politicians were delaying things to perfect their rigging strategies. Voting itself often involves waiting long hours, in a cumbersome and inefficient process. For some, it’s too much hassle.

Then there is the ever-present fear of violence on election day. Indeed, violence erupted in several places across the country in this election. Politics is a high-stakes game anywhere; in Nigeria the rewards of victory are particularly high…

Furthermore, this year’s choice between the 76-year-old Buhari, who governed highhandedly and often incompetently during his first term, and the 72-year-old veteran politician Atiku, who is widely considered corrupt, was hardly inspiring.

However, it is likely that the largest contributing factor to the extremely low turnout was the feeling that whoever won, nothing would change. The system is so corrupt that it makes no difference whether X or Y is president. Pew Research conducted last year showed that only 39% of Nigerians were satisfied with their democracy, 72% said most politicians were corrupt and 57% said no matter who wins elections, things do not change much. Only 38% felt that elected officials cared what “ordinary people think”.

And so here we are. The problem is that it is difficult for a system to maintain its legitimacy if only one in three citizens believe in it. This is the position Nigerian democracy now finds itself in…

Like a marriage, democracy cannot survive without trust. The relationship between the Nigerian government and its people is broken. Apathy prevails. Trust is scarce. Buhari’s second term needs to be focused on tackling this lack of trust that Nigerians increasingly feel towards their political system. Otherwise, the future of Nigerian democracy looks very bleak indeed.

Labels: democracy, leadership, legitimacy, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

First results from Nigeria

The runner-up in Nigeria's presidential election has rejected the result as a "throwback to the jackboot era of military dictatorship".

Atiku Abubakar criticised what he called a "sham election".

President Muhammadu Buhari won Saturday's election with a margin of nearly four million votes, according to the country's election commission…

In the 1980s, Mr Buhari, 76, was one of several military rulers in Nigeria and this election marks the 20th anniversary of the return to civilian rule.

In his acceptance speech, Mr Buhari urged his supporters not to "gloat or humiliate" the opposition following his victory.

"No section or group will feel left behind or left out," he promised in the speech…

Turnout was a record low at just 35.6%…

A former soldier, Mr Buhari led a military regime for 20 months in the 1980s and was first elected president in 2015, becoming the first opposition candidate to defeat an incumbent and win the presidency.

His record in office is mixed. Mr Buhari's critics say that the very attributes that won over voters four years ago - his strictness and inflexibility - have emerged as liabilities. They accuse him of autocratic leanings as well as a disastrous tendency towards inaction…

Labels: elections, leadership, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 9:22 AM 0 comments

Another party splintering in the UK?

Seven lawmakers from Britain’s opposition Labour Party resigned on Monday to protest their leader’s approach toward the country’s withdrawal from the European Union and his handling of accusations of anti-Semitism.

The party, which is led by Jeremy Corbyn, has been divided by growing tensions for months, with some centrist lawmakers struggling to reconcile their positions with the leadership’s more leftist policies…

[Luciana] Berger said that the lawmakers would sit in Parliament as an independent grouping. “I cannot remain in a party that I have come to the sickening conclusion is institutionally anti-Semitic,” she said.

[Chris] Leslie said that the Labour Party had been “hijacked by the machine politics of the hard left,” and criticized “Labour’s betrayal on Europe.”

Responding to the announcement by the members of Parliament, Mr. Corbyn said, “I am disappointed that these M.P.s have felt unable to continue to work together for the Labour policies that inspired millions at the last election and saw us increase our vote by the largest share since 1945.”

“Labour won people over on a program for the many, not the few,” he added. “The Conservative Government is bungling Brexit,” he said, referring to Britain’s exit from the European Union, “while Labour has set out a unifying and credible alternative plan.” …

[T]he resignation of the seven Labour lawmakers on Monday reflects the strains that Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union has placed on a political system dominated by two main parties, each plagued by schisms…

Now, with the British government’s deal on the terms of its departure in jeopardy, and the threat of an economically damaging exit rising, many members of the Labour Party have expressed support for a second referendum on the issue…

Labels: leadership, legislature, political parties, politics, UK

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Idealist?

"We are not allowed to talk about past mistakes."

Li Rui said this in 2013, while reflecting on the similarities between China's then-new leader Xi Jinping and the founding father of Communist China, Mao Zedong.

Mr Xi, he warned, was echoing Mao's suppression of individual thought, and was trying to build a similar cult of personality - both things he had experienced at first hand.

Li Rui joined the Communist Party in 1937… He was hand-picked by Mao to become his personal secretary in 1958.

But he was also imprisoned soon afterwards for criticising Mao's Great Leap Forward…

Despite this turbulent history with the party, the fact that Mr Li was one of the original revolutionaries meant that he occupied a special place in contemporary China - one that allowed him a degree of freedom to talk about the ruling party's many issues, and how he felt things should be done differently.

People may not be allowed to talk about past mistakes, but Mr Li did it anyway - and his work has helped historians understand the truth and scale of Mao's atrocities.

Li Rui died in Beiijng on Saturday, aged 101.

Li Rui

As a university student, Mr Li joined a group of idealistic Communist activists protesting against Japanese occupation. Shortly afterwards, at the age of 20, he officially joined the party. He was tortured for his communist activism.

But things changed when the party came into power in 1949, and by 1958 Mr Li had become the youngest vice minister in China…

Following Mao's death, the more pragmatic Deng Xiaoping came to power in 1978 and Mr Li was rehabilitated and allowed back into the party. He then became a strong advocate for political reform…

He wrote five books on Mao, all of which were published overseas and banned in mainland China…

But even though his writing was censored, Mr Li was not a dissident - he remained a party member until his death. And the fact that he was left to compose his memoirs from a prestigious apartment block in Beijing shows how, despite his outspoken criticism of the current leadership, he continued to be revered for his role as one of the country's original revolutionaries.

But with Mr Li dies the idealism of the activist who joined his party eight decades ago, and spent the years since vigorously rebelling against leaders who abused their power.

"He was among the last of that generation of idealists who joined the Communist Party at the beginning, and who tried to hold the Communist Party to the rhetoric [they heard] when they were being recruited," Prof Tsang says.

"There is probably nobody else who will hold the party now to what the party had originally said it was meant to do."

Labels: China, history, ideology, leadership, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Little red app

Call it the Little Red App.

Part social platform, part indoctrination tool, a new smartphone app called Study the Great Nation is the latest effort by the Chinese Communist Party to bring its propaganda initiatives into the mobile age.

So far, it seems to be working. Study the Great Nation recently became the most downloaded app on Apple’s app store in China, and on several app stores that cater to phones running Android as well.

Not all of the enthusiasm appears to have arisen organically, however. Since the app’s release at the beginning of the year, Communist Party branches at universities and local governments have arranged for administrators to guide and monitor party members as they use the app for political education…

Study the Great Nation, which was produced by the central government’s Publicity Department, has polish and sheen enough to match any of China’s popular news and entertainment apps. Most of those apps are not focused so narrowly, however, on all things Xi Jinping, the country’s leader.

In Study the Great Nation, you can catch up on the latest state media reports on Mr. Xi’s decisions, savor a quote of the day from Mr. Xi or brush up on “Xi Jinping Thought.” You can quiz yourself on Mr. Xi’s policies and pronouncements, or take in a television show called “Xi Time,” which is … well, you get the picture.

Doing each of these activities can reward users with “study points,” which can be redeemed for gifts in future versions of the app…

Is there a social element? Of course there is. Study the Great Nation is integrated with DingTalk, a messaging app made by the e-commerce giant Alibaba. As a result, you can call or text your friends in the app, host video hangouts and even send messages that disappear, Snapchat-style, after they are read…

Ratings and reviews for Study the Great Nation are currently disabled in Apple’s app store. But App Annie, an analytics firm, has preserved 497 reviews that had been submitted to Apple’s store as of Tuesday.

They are not kind, by and large. Many are laced with dry sarcasm. The average rating is 2.7 stars out of five…

Labels: China, ideology, leadership, political socialization

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments