Teaching Comparative

Politics of democratization in Russia

The anonymous authors of the Wikipedia article on "democratization" name several factors that affect democratization in a country: the amount of wealth, the value of natural resources, the size of the middle class, the state of capitalism, the health of civil society, the degree of homogeneity of the population, the culture, the record of democratic government, and the effects of foreign intervention.

Your textbook probably has its own list of important factors.

Masha Lipman who is the editor of Pro et Contra, a policy journal published by the Carnegie Moscow Center wrote the opinion piece excerpted here for Project Syndicate. She seems to credit some of those factors and discount others in her assessment of politics in Russia.

How well would your students do in evaluating Lipman's arguments and reasoning? You will want to direct your students to the complete article if you're asking them to respond to it.

They might also benefit from considering earlier entries here like,

• Rule of Law and Order in Russia
• Does the Rule of Law Exist in Russia?
• What are the prerequisites for democracy?
• New ideology in Russia
• Against expectations, political apathy in Russia

The Moscow Mystery of 2008

"Usually at this time of year, people are obsessed with what the coming year will bring. But in Russia, the real uncertainty concerns 2008, not 2007. Indeed, one can boil Russian politics down to one issue nowadays: Will President Vladimir Putin stay on as president after 2008, despite repeatedly stating that he won’t? And if he indeed steps down, whom will he groom as his replacement? Will his chosen successor belong to one of the Kremlin’s feuding factions? Or will he pick an “outsider”?

"Unless Putin maintains his stature as the country’s ultimate arbiter and decision-taker, there is a high risk of fierce infighting. In an environment where power and property are inseparable and all government institutions are emasculated, a major transfer of authority at the top may lead to violent redistribution. Thus, resolving these questions is vital for Russia’s political elites who are anxious to preserve the current perks and gain more.

As for the public, the vast majority appears resigned to accepting whatever is arranged by the leadership...

"Alienated from politics, ordinary Russians are indifferent to everything that does not immediately affect them, and do not seek to hold anyone accountable...

"The alienation between the state and the people has a long tradition in Russia, and so does public apathy...

"Of course, there are plenty of reasons to complain, and people may grumble, but they won’t come together to oppose the status quo...

"Since the election results are preordained, many may simply not vote. In fact, today’s Russian state barely has a reason to muster active support. On the contrary, public participation is seen as an obstacle to the goals pursued by the bureaucracy: self-perpetuation and expanding control over lucrative assets. If any among the Russian elite ever nursed modernizing ambitions, they have abandoned them, for without public participation, modernization is a fallacy.

"Instead, the Kremlin increasingly draws on the conservative, Soviet-style electorate as its power base, while alienating the advanced, the entrepreneurial, and the best educated...

"Thus, if there is any threat to a smooth transition in 2008, or a risk of subsequent destabilization, it may stem from infighting at the top, not from the public. Optimists hope that at some point Russia’s burgeoning middle class will assume responsibility for Russia’s future and demand a radical improvement in governance..."

posted by Ken Wedding @ 8:32 AM