Procedural elections
Three Norwegian political scientists try to explain why dictators hold elections. Does what they say apply to China? to Iran? to Mexico? to Russia? to Nigeria?
You’d think dictators would avoid elections. Here’s why they don’t.
Elections are a hallmark of democracy. So why do dictatorships around the world also hold them? While autocratic elections are often characterized as “sham elections,” with the official vote winner clear beforehand, elections in fact have systematic and substantial effects on the durability of dictatorships.
In a recent article in World Politics, we examine 389 elections in 259 dictatorships…
Elections often bring regime-threatening protests or coup d’etats — and that’s why they’re so dangerous to autocratic regimes. But autocrats also gain something from holding elections… Elections confer long-term benefits. The regime can co-opt members of the opposition, for instance, or learn more about the strength of the opposition. Elections also help dictators build a strong organizational apparatus and signal their strength to intimidate potential opponents.
The flip side… is that elections also can produce short-term instability by enabling opposition groups to coordinate their actions right around when the election takes place…
We find clear evidence that the period around and right after an autocratic election — and during the election year in particular — is associated with a greatly increased risk of regime breakdown…
There’s also some evidence, although not as clear-cut, that holding elections makes for more stable dictatorships in the long term…
Here’s how these long-term benefits played out in Mexico’s autocratic regimes from 1929 to 2000. The party in power, the Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, for decades managed to conduct elections without seeing major threats to its grip on power.
In fact, studies by political scientists argue that the PRI used these elections as a device to prolong its rule. The party used elections to selectively co-opt supporters — but deter opponents by displaying organizational strength and broad public appeal. These stabilizing effects continued long past election day…
Our research indicates that opposition actors in autocratic regimes may find a unique window for dissent around election time, when autocratic incumbents are particularly vulnerable…
Authors: Carl Henrik Knutsen is professor of political science at the University of Oslo, Håvard Mokleiv Nygård is a senior researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), and Tore Wig is a postdoctoral fellow in the Department of Political Science at the University of Oslo.
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Labels: concepts, elections, procedural democracy
Keeping rivals off the ballot
Here's an example of how to run a procedural democracy.
Aleksei Navalny, Viable Putin Rival, Is Barred From a Presidential Run
A Russian court on Wednesday effectively derailed a presidential run by Aleksei A. Navalny — the only opposition candidate with a broad, enthusiastic popular following — by reviving a four-year-old criminal conviction…
The best chance for a competitive race came to a screeching halt on Wednesday, however, when a district court in the small city of Kirov, nearly 500 miles northeast of Moscow, pronounced Mr. Navalny guilty of defrauding a state company. Russian law bars anyone with a criminal conviction from seeking elected office…
Since he first came to power in January 2000, Mr. Putin and his allies have gone to great lengths to silence or undermine all critical voices in Russia. It has been almost two years since the still-mysterious assassination of Boris Nemtsov, another charismatic opposition figure…
Russian television is largely back under government control, as it was during Soviet times, along with most formerly independent news agencies. More than 100 nongovernmental organizations working on issues including the environment, civic education and fighting the spread of AIDS have been declared “foreign agents,” forcing many to close.
Mr. Navalny was the driving force behind large street protests in 2011, 2012 and 2013 that unnerved Mr. Putin. He has also repeatedly embarrassed senior officials by accusing them of corruption, exposing their lavish mansions and other perquisites that seem beyond the reach of a public servant earning a modest government salary.
In recent years, Mr. Navalny became the prime example of how the government would use the courts to entangle critics. In addition to the conviction revived on Wednesday, he has been accused of defrauding a French perfume company…
Mr. Navalny, who called the Kirov fraud charges baseless and politically motivated, responded to the latest judgment against him with defiance. “Putin and his gang of thieves are afraid to face us in elections,” he wrote on Twitter. “Rightly so: We will win.”
Russian political analysts suggested that the prospect of Mr. Navalny’s gaining a national platform to further criticize Mr. Putin had proved too much for the Kremlin hierarchy to tolerate.
“The danger associated with Mr. Navalny is easy to explain,” Vladislav L. Inozemtsev, director of the Center for Postindustrial Studies in Moscow, wrote in an email. “If allowed to run, he will disseminate his corruption findings more widely than ever — and this disturbs very much Mr. Putin and his gang.”…
Even before the verdict was announced, the government moved to shut down the logistics for his presidential run. On Tuesday, Russia’s leading information technology company, Yandex, unplugged the online account that Mr. Navalny had used to collect money from supporters.
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Labels: elections, judiciary, politics, procedural democracy, Russia
Machine or Party Politics in China
Party politics in China don't look familiar, unless we look back to 19th century machine politics in the American cities.
China Disrupts Local Campaigns
Tuesday was Election Day in Beijing, with thousands of seats for party-run local congresses up for grabs. Outside community centers and police stations, officials urged people to “treasure democratic rights” and “cast your sacred and solemn ballot.”
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| Election posters in Beijing |
But before the elections, there were no debates, town hall-style forums, social media wars or other hallmarks of participatory democracy.
Instead, the government responded with bluster and bullying, detaining activists and confiscating campaign materials. President Xi Jinping, who has vigorously blocked threats to the Communist Party’s dominance since coming to power in 2012, has taken a harsh stance against advocates for democracy and has sought to limit Western influences.
For the small but spirited band of activists who had been working for years to shake the status quo, the election results were disheartening, to say the least…
Despite the Communist Party’s monopoly on power in China and its strenuous efforts to limit dissent, the government has permitted elections at the local level for decades, eager to show to the world that China, too, has democracy.
Every five years, the government encourages citizens over the age of 18 without a criminal record — about 900 million people this year — to choose representatives for local People’s Congresses…
But the elections are democratic in name only. The party picks its preferred candidates and leaves no room for an upset. Even after a candidate is elected, his or her powers are severely restricted… The Legislature is widely considered to be a rubber stamp of Mr. Xi and the Communist Party…
The elections this year are the first of their kind under Mr. Xi, whose tenure has been marked by tighter control of civil society and a harsh treatment of dissidents. Over the past several weeks, the authorities have carried out a far-reaching campaign to rein in unsanctioned candidates across the country…
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Labels: China, elections, procedural democracy
