Teasing out the details of the Iranian state
The power elite in Iran is so personal and the relationships among those men, institutional and informal, are so complex, that sorting out politics is tedious and difficult.A New York Times article discussing preliminary results from local and Assembly of Experts elections offers hints about how the system works now. How much could your students add to what's in their textbook from "the inexact science" of identifying personal alliances? (If you don't have access to the Times article, other news sources reported on these results in much the same way.)
Tally in Iran Vote Spells ‘Setback’ for President’s Hard Line
"...the tally so far indicated that candidates from the reformist and pragmatic conservative camps — the two main groups opposing the populist, hard-line president — emerged stronger from the vote...
"Two contenders in [the] 2005 presidential election could claim important victories this time around, both seen as setbacks for the president. One, Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani... [Final results for the Assembly of Experts show that more than 65 candidates close to Mr. Rafsanjani won.] The other, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who succeeded Mr. Ahmadinejad as mayor of Tehran...
"Reformist politicians beat hard-liners in at least five important city councils...
"Reformists, who support constitutional change to dilute the power of the clerics, captured four of the 15 seats in Tehran. That led them to protest the possibility of tampering, because results are taking longer than expected and an Ahmadinejad ally is in charge of the count...
"In the inexact science of reading alliances within the competing circles of mullahs and military men, there have been signs that the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, is not enchanted with the [president]... a protest against the president when he visited a Tehran university this month was shown on state television, which the supreme leader controls...
"The tension between the president and Tehran’s mayor creates an interesting dynamic because both were Revolutionary Guards.
"Mr. Ahmadinejad is more identified with the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force drawn mostly from the working poor, whereas Mr. Qalibaf was the head of the air force and projects a more sophisticated image friendly to business executives...
[At that point I'd ask, to complicate matters, which executives? The bazaaris? The bonyad adminstrators? or others? -KW]
"'The significance of this election is that we now have a complete new alignment — the reformists, the Rafsanjani camp and the conservative bazaar elements,' said Abbas Milani, chairman of Iranian studies at Stanford University. 'That is a de facto coalition whose purpose is to stop Ahmadinejad from doing further damage, both domestically and internationally.'"
posted by Ken Wedding @ 6:19 AM
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