An interpretation of Iranian politics
Michael Harvey wrote from Abu Dhabi that an op-ed piece in his local paper, the Gulf News, offered thoughtful observations about Iranian politics.It's written by Amir Taheri, an Iranian author based in Europe. The analysis is not unexpected from an overseas Iranian, but when it's published in an Arab newspaper, it earns a bit more importance. It might be a reminder that Iran is not an Arab country, and that not all Iran's neighbors are pleased with the theocracy there. In any case, this analysis is a useful addition to studying how politics works in Iran. I suspect it offers a good counterpoint to textbook accounts.
Taheri even offers a bit of comparative politics by alluding to Deng Xiaoping and changes in China.
Ahmadinejad is firm in the saddle
"As the Tehran leadership prepares to go to the wire in its confrontation with the international community over the nuclear issue, one thing is clear: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad emerges with his position within the Khomeinist establishment strengthened."Just a couple of weeks ago we were told that Ahmadinejad's star was on the wane, and that 'moderate mullahs' had persuaded the 'Supreme Guide' Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to restrain the firebrand president...
"Ahmadinejad has the great merit of seeing the problem for what it really is.
"Some... have tried to present Iran's uranium enrichment programme as a technical issue. Others... have even advised acceptance of what they regard as fait accompli.
"For Ahmadinejad, however, the issue is political in the grand sense of the term with nothing less than the survival of the Khomeinist regime at stake.
"The Khomeinist revolution of 1979 had three slogans: independence, liberty, Islamic government. The regime that emerged from it tried to build its legitimacy on that basis.
"Over the past quarter of a century, however, the Khomeinist regime has failed to deliver on its triple slogan.
"In all practical terms, Iran today is more dependent on the outside world than before the Khomeinist seizure of power...
"As for liberty, the second item on the triple slogan, it is clear to most Iranians today that they are much less free, especially in social and cultural terms, than they were before the mullahs seized power...
"The third item of the slogan, Islamic government, has also remained a chimera. Many genuinely religious Iranians, including some Shiite clerics, see Khomeinism as an 'evil innovation' (bed'aah) because it violates a fundamental principle of the faith by pretending that it can create a truly Islamic government before the return of the Hidden Imam.
"Ahmadinejad is conscious of the massive loss of legitimacy that the Islamic Republic has faced at least since the early 1990s. He knows that he cannot rebuild the regime's legitimacy by offering greater liberty to the Iranian people...
"The radicals are left with two options: thickening the Islamic colouring of the regime, and emphasising its claim of independence.
"Ahmadinejad has tried to thicken the regime's religious colouring by casting himself in the role of the proverbial Islamic Ghazi (holy warrior) who will ride his white horse into Occupied Jerusalem to liberate it from the 'infidel'.
"The regime's claim of independence is best illustrated by its refusal to kowtow to the diktats of the major powers, especially the United States...
"If the Khomeinist regime emerges victorious from the current confrontation, it would move to a higher degree of radicalism, thus, in effect, becoming a new regime.
"The radical faction would be able to purge the rich and corrupt mullahs by promoting a new generation of zealots linked with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard and the security services. It would also move onto the offensive in the region, seeking to reshape it after the Khomeinist revolution's geo-strategic interests...
"If, on the other hand, the Khomeinist regime is forced to back down on this issue, the radical moment would fade, while the many enemies of the regime regroup to either topple it or change it beyond recognition as Deng Xiao-ping did with the Maoist regime in China.
"What we are witnessing is the start of what could be a long and complicated conflict..."
posted by Ken Wedding @ 9:57 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home