Iranian demographics and politics
Michael Harvey sent me a link to a good article about Iran from the Boston Globe. It offers a glimpse of a social scene and of a cultural pressure that's bound to have political ramifications.Once they have a handle on the structure of the Iranian system and the political forces at work in it, what would your students predict about that political system 20 years from now?
Anne Barnard, a "co-chief of the Globe's Middle East bureau," writes:
Iran's young and restless
"Mehran Ferdosi had promised to show us what young Iranians do for fun. When he pulled up at our hotel at 10 p.m., sporting a slicked-back pompadour and trendy thick-framed glasses, he looked like he meant business...
"He led us across a muddy parking lot, pulled back a plastic flap and showed us into a smoky, cozy space, a kaleidoscope of warm reds and oranges and young Iranian faces.
"Men, women, and teenagers lounged on low platforms draped with Persian carpets... They warmed themselves beside the orange flames of kerosene stoves and smoked their long-necked water pipes. They come to talk, to drink tea, but most importantly to flirt. The greenhouse cafes -- speakeasies, Iranian style -- are social incubators. Not illegal -- they don’t serve alcohol, which is banned -- but purposely low-profile...
"Mehran and his friends are taking part in an elaborate dance between Islamic government and the 70 percent of Iranians who are under 30 -- a generation that one longtime Iranian political observer calls 'the testosterone bomb.' These young people are disproportionately unemployed and restless; they don’t remember the Shah’s rule. To them the government is just the government, not a bunch of revolutionary heroes.
"So the ruling clerics know they can’t confront them head on. Instead, they’ve turned a blind eye to illegal drinking, banned satellite dishes, Western music and even young love -- as long as those things are kept secret and not flaunted.
"The sneaking around takes so much energy that Mehran and his friends suspect the government likes it this way.
"'They make you obsessed with these little things, so that you don’t think about the big issues,' [Mehran] said... [Even so, he and his friends] worry about their financial futures. They want to be part of global youth culture and part of a global economy -- they sell cellphones and want to experiment with e-commerce -- but they fear that Iran’s isolation, exacerbated by its government’s combative foreign policy, will block them. If love ever progresses to marriage, they’re not sure how they’ll support a family..."
Labels: Iran
posted by Ken Wedding @ 10:56 AM
1 Comments:
RFE/RL correspondent Golnaz Esfandiari talked on the phone with student activist Mohammad Hashemi. Hashemi -- a leader of Daftare Tahkim Vahdat, Iran's largest reformist student organization, is not optimistic about the political future of the reform movement. As a counterpoint to other Western media accounts of the recent election results, this interview would be good for students to consider.
Youth Leader Discusses Recent Local Elections
RFE/RL: Some observers have said the elections showed that the people are rejecting "extremism "and that they are still in favor of reform. What do you think the message of the December 15 elections was?
Mohammad Hashemi: A coalition was formed -- including reformists -- that got together against a part of the establishment... Iranian society... showed that one can't rely much on such coalitions, given that the part of the establishment that the coalition opposes... has all the necessary tools to control this movement...
RFE/RL: Now, despite what is being described as election irregularities -- or even fraud -- the moderate conservatives and reformers took most of the votes, while Ahmadinejad's supporters and those on the so-called Good Scent of Service list have been defeated... How do you think this might affect the political situation in the country?
Hashemi: I think these developments are the results of the work of Ahmadinejad. His work in the past year has been such that it has brought opposition even from traditional conservatives within the establishment. We have seen in many cases that even legislators who used to support him are becoming critical. I don't see this as a movement. Rather, I see it as a negative view of Ahamdinejad's performance. I don't think it will bring any changes in the political [scene]. The vote was a "no" to Ahmadinejad and his entourage, but it won't have a big impact on the political currents in the country.
RFE/RL: Will it affect the government and its policies?
Hashemi: Today Ahmadinejad and the small team that works with him are alone, and the only reason the establishment doesn't act against Ahmadinejad is to prevent a crisis...
RFE/RL: How will the results affect the reformist camp?...
Hashemi: I'm not very hopeful for two reasons. One is that the reformers expected they would capture more seats...
The second thing is that the main problem will come right after the new city council is formed... More than 80 percent of city construction projects are being done by the Revolutionary Guard. The guard would definitely not want to carry out projects for a council that is run by reformers. Therefore, the reformers would either not be able to accept responsibilities in the council and, if they do, things would get even worse because they will not be able to move forward their projects. Therefore, I don't think the reformers will be able to achieve anything through the results of the city council elections.
Post a Comment
<< Home