Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Monday, February 19, 2007

Russian Presidential Candidates

A year before the presidential election in Russia and the race seems to be set up. One real party, two candidates, Putin in control. How do we describe and classify this system? And how does one rise to the top in this system?

Russian Leader Expands Powers of a Possible Successor -- Defense Minister Elevated to Same Rank as Another Favorite for Putin's Nod Ahead of '08 Elections

"President Vladimir Putin promoted Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov to the post of first deputy prime minister Thursday, an elevation that immediately intensified speculation that Putin might favor him as his successor... [He was replaced as defense minister by Anatoly Serdyukov, the head of Russia's tax service.]
Ivanov reviewed troops as Defense Minister

"Ivanov, 54, will now be charged with overseeing Russia's military-industrial complex as well as part of the civilian economy. He was recently put in charge of consolidating and revitalizing Russia's aviation industry...

"Ivanov's new position puts him on the same level in government as Dmitri Medvedev, who is also a first deputy prime minister and chairman of the energy conglomerate Gazprom. The two men now appear to be in an open contest for Putin's nod -- the decisive factor in determining who will become president in elections in March 2008.

"Putin said this month that he will make his choice known during the campaign early next year. Because of his huge popularity and standing with voters, his endorsement will certainly swing the job to his preferred candidate, according to numerous opinion polls and analysts here...

"Like Putin, Ivanov had a long career as a KGB official... He speaks English fluently... He also speaks Swedish...

"Both Ivanov and Medvedev have ties to the president that reach back to their mutual home town, St. Petersburg... Ivanov and Putin both served in the Leningrad Directorate of the KGB...

"Ivanov is widely believed to be less ensnared than Medvedev in the opaque but fierce rivalries of different interest groups around Putin in the Kremlin and could emerge as an acceptable alternative for those against Medvedev's candidacy, according to some analysts..."


The importance of the high level personnel moves were repeated in a RFE/RL report.

Reshuffle Puts Putin's Heirs Apparent On Equal Footing

"'I have signed a decree expanding Sergei Borisovich Ivanov's responsibilities in the government of the Russian Federation, giving him the duties of coordinating, in addition to the military-industrial complex, the civilian sector of the economy,' Putin announced. 'Sergei Borisovich's status is raised to the level of first deputy chairman of the Russian government.'

"The appointment gives Ivanov the same rank as Dmitry Medvedev, who is widely rumored to be his main rival in the 2008 presidential race. 
  
"Many Russians have long suspected that their president has been grooming one of the two men to be his successor... 
  
"But Kremlin watchers say placing Ivanov and Medvedev in the same position means Putin hasn't yet thrown his weight behind one man...

"'This fits perfectly with what the president was saying at his last press conference, which is that our country will have a free election involving two candidates,' Sergei Mulin, a political commentator for the newspaper Novaya gazeta, said. 'What he didn't admit was that both candidates would be supplied by the Kremlin.'..."


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