Nigerian political culture, again
Lydia Polgreen's analysis of the Nigerian political system goes beyond the crisis and takes a a longer-term view of system as a whole.She suggests that while the electoral system may be dangerously flawed, rule of law may yet surivive.
The South African report of passive acceptance of the election's results and Patrick Jackson's analysis at the BBC news site suggesting that Nigeria's political culture lacks important elements that have led to democratic "revolutions" elsewhere, describe similar factors.
Does this mean the journalistic consensus is right? No, and only time and further investigation will tell. Check back on events in Lagos, Abuja, Port Harcourt, Kano, Kaduna, and Sokoto in six months or a year. Ask your students then to look at these reports and evaluate the analyses. It will be a good learning experience.
NOTE: If you want to use this article from the New York Times and don't subscribe to the "TimesSelect" service, you'll want to save a copy of this article now. A couple weeks from now it will be expensive to buy a copy.
Democracy in Nigeria Falters but Is Far From Dead
"Measured one way, Nigeria’s democracy took a giant step backward in April...
"But judged another way, the test is only beginning: will Nigeria navigate the legal and political challenges to the election peacefully, in a way that cements rather than undermines its young democracy?
"There are reasons to expect that it is better prepared to withstand the weeks ahead than analysts might think...
"[B]uilding a functioning democracy is a very different task. Congo and Liberia, for example, are shattered nations with few meaningful institutions. Only time will tell if they will become true democracies in which the will of the people can be carried out.
"Nigeria is much further along that road. Eight years into civilian government after a long spell of military dominance, Nigeria’s institutions are blossoming despite the recent electoral chaos...
"Nigeria’s robust civic and religious groups, driven underground by military rule, have blossomed into watchdogs, freely criticizing and even condemning the government’s handling of the election.
"The country’s cacophonous news media deployed armies of correspondents across 36 states to bring back reports of stuffed ballot boxes, intimidated voters and phony results.
"And a cellphone explosion allowed for text messages among poll observers, voters and political parties, making instances of rigging and intimidation in far-flung polling places almost impossible to hide...
"It has become apparent that the governing People’s Democratic Party simply seized the apparatus of democracy — ballots, boxes, ink and tally sheets — and rigged its way to victory in a number of places. But the sweeping victories will be challenged in the courts of law and the court of public opinion...
"'What this election has resulted in, ironically, is a significant deflation in the P.D.P.’s ability to lead,' said J. Stephen Morrison, director of the Africa Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies in Washington. 'They are coming out of this more vulnerable to crisis and less able to govern.'...
"The real problem, analysts say, is that most Nigerians have lost faith in democracy just as it begins to take root within the mechanisms of state. Last year the Afrobarometer public opinion survey showed that satisfaction with democracy in Nigeria plummeted to just 25 percent in 2005, from more than 80 percent in 2000...
"Nnaama Idemili, an unemployed accountant, gave another reason, in the form of a Nigerian proverb. It reflected the feeling that allowing the institutions of democracy to do their work would do more good than violent protest, which might prompt the military to intervene and seize power in the name of order.
"'A man who breaks a coconut with his head will never eat that coconut with his mouth,' he said.
"'I want Nigeria to change,' Mr. Idemili explained. 'But we can’t destroy the country in the process. Things are moving. We only pray they keep moving in the right direction.'"
Labels: change, democratization, Nigeria, political culture
posted by Ken Wedding @ 7:55 AM
3 Comments:
Another source on this topic is Dr. Iren Omo-Bare's background paper, The Democratic Transition in Nigeria at AP Central.
Here's his conclusion:
"Looking at Nigeria's experiences, one has good reason to wonder whether the Nigerian condition is amenable to Western-style consensual political arrangements. Although the temptation to borrow well-established and tested models of governance is strong, Nigeria must devise a system more appropriate to the country's ethnic circumstances if it is to endure. The answer may lie in the establishment of a consociational system in which traditional leaders play the central role of consensus building. Nigerian traditional rulers -- emirs, sultans, obas, obis, and so forth -- have continued to enjoy widespread support within their respective domains. In many parts of the country, they have more legitimacy than the modern leadership structure. Because the substantial majority of Nigerians live in small towns and villages where the authority of traditional rulers holds sway, it would seem expedient for the government to use the legitimacy these leaders enjoy to secure the support of Nigerians for integrative, consensual politics."
Daniel Lazar, who teaches at the Benjamin Franklin International School in Barcelona, also recommends the AfroBarometer essays Performance and Legitimacy in Nigeria's New Democracy and Identity, Institutions, and Democracy in Nigeria.
I've been looking at Nigeria, and all I can think is that any viable alternative to the current system would always boil down to the oil problem. How can the natural resources be distributed fairly when there is so much rampant corruption within Nigeria? It all eventually has to be distributed, but by centralizing it, problems occur. All of the money goes into the loyalty pyrimads of the "Big Men". Forming a confederation, I thought, might work. However, this would also lead to problems with distribution of oil revenues. Is the only solution for Nigeria to stop expand its global market and stop relying so heavily on oil?
The oil conundrum in Nigeria sounds like the one in Iraq.
I doubt that reducing oil income in a poor country would make the problem less severe.
I suggest Dr. Omo-Bare's paper for an analysis with some optimisim.
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