He's back…

President Muhammadu Buhari… returned to Abuja, after a 10-day 'private visit' to the United Kingdom…

Buhari

A statement by his spokesperson, Femi Adesina, said some "reckless online media, irresponsible political opposition, and other bilious groups and individuals, had gone on overdrive since the President left the country on April 25, insinuating that he was going for hospitalization, and would not return after 10 days as stated."…

The presidency did not provide details of Mr Buhari's 'private visit,' leading to speculations he travelled to see his doctors as he has done in the past…

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Youth culture in Nigeria

On any night of the week in Lagos, you can find somewhere to party into the early hours.

Forget for a moment that Nigeria is a conservative country, where Christian evangelism is popular in the south, Islamic law in the north and homosexuality is illegal everywhere.

Lagos is Africa’s economic capital and home to 21 million people. It's also a creative hub for the country's liberal youth.

On a Friday, you may find the beach by the Hard Rock Cafe pulsating with electronic Afrobeats.

Lagos club night

These types of club nights - where it's all about being yourself - are common across Lagos.

In Lagos, the wealthy flock to the glitzy clubs in the expensive district of Ikoyi.

"You need 200,000 naira ($550) for one night or you don't party," says Noble Igwe, a well-known party organiser.

“A Lagos club kid is just someone who can afford to buy a bottle [of champagne]. Anyone who can buy a bottle will be the king in that club for the night.”

Others create their own party scene, which is affordable, creative, and a way to meet like-minded people.

The parties are held across the divides of the city, from mainland neighbourhoods to the sprawling homes on the island. Details are passed from person to person on Instagram and WhatsApp, creating a grassroots buzz.

Music plays an important role. Clubs and parties hire DJs and "hype men" whose mixes set the mood…

Labels: demographics, Nigeria, political culture

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Terrorists in northern Nigeria strike again

Dozens of gunmen attacked two villages in Katsina state, north-western Nigeria and killed 14 villagers, a politician and local police say.

The politician, who represents the area in the state's parliament, Abdul Jalal Haruna Runka, told the BBC the attackers on motorbikes went on the rampage in the villages on Tuesday evening shooting people and burning houses.

Many people were also injured in Gobirawa and Sabawa villages.

This is the second time in a week that gunmen attacked the area killing several people and injuring others.

There's growing concern in northern Nigeria over the level of banditry and kidnapping in the states of Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna.

The states have long faced problems with armed groups stealing cattle, kidnapping for ransom and attacking communities, which has in turn prompted some local people to form vigilante gangs.

The Nigerian government has deployed troops to the region but that has yet to bring the violence to an end.

Buhari's relative kidnapped in Nigeria

Local police say one officer who was injured in a confrontation with the kidnappers is receiving treatment at a local hospital.

Labels: cleavages, Nigeria, terrorism

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Chinese "king" in NIgeria

A leader of the Chinese community in northern Nigeria has been crowned, or "turbaned", as a chief by the Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi.

The emir holds a lot of influence and is a religious and cultural leader in the region.

At a traditional ceremony in Kano Mike Zhang took the title of Wakilin Yan China, meaning the leader of the Chinese residents, as his head was wrapped in a turban.

Mike Zhang

This ceremony is a recognition of the growing importance of the Chinese community in Kano, the largest city in northern Nigeria, BBC Hausa editor Jimeh Saleh says.

There are a lot of Chinese businesses and traders in the city who are sometimes accused of taking other people's jobs and engaging in unfair competition.

Mr Zhang will be a vital link between the Chinese community and the locals.

Mike Zhang

Labels: cleavages, demographics, Nigeria, political culture

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Mobile campaign signs or political spiff?

Rotimi Akeredolu, Governor of Ondo State, has ordered the withdrawal of all the branded vehicles he donated for the re-election bid and campaign of President Muhammadu Buhari ahead of the 2019 general election, SaharaReporters can exclusively report.

The vehicles donated by Akeredolu before the election were presented to some leaders of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the state…

As of press time, the motives behind the withdrawal of the branded campaign vehicles were not known to the party leaders/members, who have been grumbling underground since the decision was effected.

To further confirm withdrawal of the branded vehicles, SaharaReporters exclusively obtained a terse memo calling on leaders and members of the party in possession of the branded vehicles to return them…

Multiple sources in the ruling party in the state, who spoke with SaharaReporters, expressed great dissatisfaction with the order for return of the vehicles.

These sources wondered why Akeredolu would abruptly call for the return of vehicles that were given to them as gifts…

When SaharaReporters contacted Alhaji Yusuf Sanya Isiaka, the Senior Special Adviser on Political Matters to the Governor, he said the vehicles were not really "gifts" but were only given out to aid campaigns.

"What the Governor did was to give those buses for campaign purposes; it was not a gift," he said.

"It was just to aid their campaign programme during the electioneering period, and the arrangment was that after the election, it should be return. So, that was the arrangment between them and the MHAs (members of the House of Assembly).

"So, they were aware... before these buses were handed over to them, they were all told that they would return them after campaign. And they have actually complied. If it was a gift, nobody would comply. it was not a gift."

Labels: campaign, corruption, elections, leadership, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Is this political culture?

It has been one big party this week in the town of Arondizuogu in southern Nigeria, with feasting and parades to give thanks for the last harvest and to usher in the new planting season.

The Ikeji Festival, which last for seven days, brings together many thousands of ethnic Igbo people, from far and wide, to the town in Imo state.

During the festivities, some men are authorised by secret cultural Igbo societies to dress up as ancestral spirits in what is called a masquerade.

They are accompanied by a bell bearer, who explains to the crowds the messages the spirit world wishes to pass on - usually blessings for a bountiful harvest to come.

The masked figures perform for the crowds as they go down the streets - and as part of the rituals, chickens and goats are sacrificed to the ancestors to encourage them to grant their blessings.



[A dozen photos by BBC Igbo's Chiemela Mgbeahuru]

Labels: demographics, history, Nigeria, political culture

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigeria's Chief Justice Onnoghen Gets the Boot

Nigeria: CCT Convicts, Sacks Onnoghen As Chief Justice, NJC Chairman

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, rule of law

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigeria isn't waiting for global warming

Nigeria has been in the grip of an intense heatwave over the past few weeks, with meteorologist saying there is no relief in sight until the seasonal rains set in next month.

The extreme heat has been in place since March, with the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) saying last week that the heatwave has been affecting most parts of the country, including coastal areas, with temperatures well above 35 degrees Celsius [95°F].

On Friday, the temperature touched 42.2C [107°F] in Minna, 120km northwest of Abuja. Meanwhile, Kano, 345km north of the capital, has notched up highs in excess of 40C [104°F] every day since the beginning of April.

As people struggle to cope, authorities have been issuing warnings about the dangers brought on by the excessive temperatures…

The severe heatwave is expected to continue until May when the seasonal rains are expected to spread north across the country.

Environmental experts have called on authorities to make long-term plans to slow down the effects of climate change by reducing carbon emission and impose bans on tree-cutting.

Labels: climate, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Promises from a former military dictator

Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has said he would not waiver in his commitment to due process and preserving the sanctity of the rule of law.

The President made the statement at the final day of the 50th Convocation Ceremonies of the University of Lagos…

Buhari's speech read: “With the 2019 general election that have come and gone, we as a nation have once again reiterated our choice of democracy as the system of government by which we hope to imbibe an all-round development.

“Our administration is committed to ensuring that the sacredness of that choice is preserved. With this policy enunciated and every programme instituted, we shall ensure that our democratic culture takes firmer roots and legacies further consolidated.

“Let me reiterate that my administration will not waver in its commitment to following due process, preserving the sanctity of the rule of law, battling grand corruption, securing the lives and property of our people and rehabilitating or upgrading our critical infrastructure.

“We will continue to be unrelenting in enthroning hard work, honesty and place the welfare of our citizens above everything else… "

Labels: leadership, Nigeria, rule of law

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigerian statistics

From Premium Times, Abuja

The National Population Commission (NPC) has said that the current overall life expectancy of Nigeria stands at 52.2 years.

The Acting Chairman of NPC, Hassan Bashir, stated this in New York while delivering Nigeria’s statement at the 52nd Session of the United Nations Commission on Population and Development.

According to the World Health Organisation, life expectancy refers to the average number of years that a newborn is expected to live if current mortality rates continue to apply…

Mr Bashir added: “As you may be aware, Nigeria estimated population is currently at over 198 million with an annual growth rate of 3.2 per cent.

“The total Fertility Rate remains at 5.5 per woman; 63 per cent of the entire population is under the age of 25; 42 per cent is under the age of 15 years…



Life expectancies from ThoughtCo

• Monaco 89.5
• UK 80.5
• USA 79.7
• Mexico 75.7
• China 75.3
• Iran 71.2
• Russia 70.5
• Nigeria 52.5
• South Africa 49.7

Labels: demographics, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

The "real" regime of Nigeria?

Most of Nigeria’s 36 states, which elect[ed] their governors and state legislators on March 9th, have [politically linked [gangs of hoodlums who terrorise the city.] These straddle the boundary between party cadres and criminal gangs. They embody the rottenness of state politics in Nigeria. Governors run their states like personal fiefs, amassing fortunes and grooming protégés once they have hit the two-term limit. Although outsiders often pay little attention to them… Since states are in charge of budgets for education and health, their elections are also more important.

When it gained independence from Britain in 1960 Nigeria was divided into three regions. These were later split into four regions before being sliced up into 12 states in 1967 as the government tried to prevent the secession of one of the regions, Biafra. It was brought to heel in a bloody civil war. In the years since then the country has been further diced into 36 states, several of which are failing…

Governance is often abysmal. At the end of 2017, according to BudgIT, an NGO, only two states generated more than half of their revenue internally, instead of relying on federal handouts…

Checks on governors’ power are feeble. Although each state has its own legislative assembly and electoral commission for local polls, Maliki Kuliya, who served as Mr Kwankwaso’s justice commissioner, says that these are “just appendages of the executive”. As a result, political parties usually matter less than the politicians who constantly switch between them…

Labels: corruption, federalism, Nigeria, politics, regime

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

More Nigerian elections

Nigerians are heading to the polls to elect state and local representatives, two weeks after the presidential poll.

Ballots are being cast in 29 of the country's 36 states.

In oil-rich Nigeria, some state governors control budgets larger than those of neighbouring countries and so these are often keenly contested.

President Muhammadu Buhari beat his main rival Atiku Abubakar in the 23 February election, securing a second term.

Across the country, Mr Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) got 15.2 million votes while Mr Abubakar's People's Democratic Party (PDP) received 11.3 million. There are 73 million registered voters.

The APC won 19 states, while the PDP secured 16 plus the capital Abuja.

Mr Abubakar said the election was a "sham" and was not free and fair. He has since filed a petition challenging President Buhari's win.

Although turnout for the presidential election was low across the country, it was higher in the northern states - one factor behind Mr Buhari's victory.

Fears of possible election-related violence has led to the massive deployment of security personnel across the country…

The turnout for the state elections is expected to be higher than the 35.5% in last month's presidential election, down from 44% in 2015.

Most Nigerians take state elections seriously because their lives are directly impacted by the governor and representatives in the state legislature…

Lagos, one of the most contested states, has an estimated population of 17.5 million people - this is more than the combined population of Gabon, The Gambia, Liberia, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone.

The state's GDP is more than that of Kenya. In fact, Lagos would be the fifth largest economy in Africa if it were a country.

Other key battle grounds that will be hotly contested between the APC and PDP are Kaduna, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Kano and Kwara.

Labels: elections, federalism, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Nigeria: failed democracy?

You know a democracy is in trouble when two out of three voters don’t bother to turn up for a presidential election. In Nigeria’s just-concluded presidential poll, incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected with the backing of 15.2 million voters compared to the 11.3 million votes his main rival Atiku Abubakar, was able to amass…

The 35% voter turnout was down from 44% in the 2015 presidential election and way down from the 54% turnout in 2011. In fact, turnout for Nigerian presidential elections has been dropping at an alarmingly consistent rate since 2003. So why are increasingly fewer Nigerians feeling the need to vote in elections that decide the most powerful political office?

Poor organisation is one reason. The last three elections were all postponed at the last minute, causing frustration as well as suspicion that politicians were delaying things to perfect their rigging strategies. Voting itself often involves waiting long hours, in a cumbersome and inefficient process. For some, it’s too much hassle.

Then there is the ever-present fear of violence on election day. Indeed, violence erupted in several places across the country in this election. Politics is a high-stakes game anywhere; in Nigeria the rewards of victory are particularly high…

Furthermore, this year’s choice between the 76-year-old Buhari, who governed highhandedly and often incompetently during his first term, and the 72-year-old veteran politician Atiku, who is widely considered corrupt, was hardly inspiring.

However, it is likely that the largest contributing factor to the extremely low turnout was the feeling that whoever won, nothing would change. The system is so corrupt that it makes no difference whether X or Y is president. Pew Research conducted last year showed that only 39% of Nigerians were satisfied with their democracy, 72% said most politicians were corrupt and 57% said no matter who wins elections, things do not change much. Only 38% felt that elected officials cared what “ordinary people think”.

And so here we are. The problem is that it is difficult for a system to maintain its legitimacy if only one in three citizens believe in it. This is the position Nigerian democracy now finds itself in…

Like a marriage, democracy cannot survive without trust. The relationship between the Nigerian government and its people is broken. Apathy prevails. Trust is scarce. Buhari’s second term needs to be focused on tackling this lack of trust that Nigerians increasingly feel towards their political system. Otherwise, the future of Nigerian democracy looks very bleak indeed.

Labels: democracy, leadership, legitimacy, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

First results from Nigeria

The runner-up in Nigeria's presidential election has rejected the result as a "throwback to the jackboot era of military dictatorship".

Atiku Abubakar criticised what he called a "sham election".

President Muhammadu Buhari won Saturday's election with a margin of nearly four million votes, according to the country's election commission…

In the 1980s, Mr Buhari, 76, was one of several military rulers in Nigeria and this election marks the 20th anniversary of the return to civilian rule.

In his acceptance speech, Mr Buhari urged his supporters not to "gloat or humiliate" the opposition following his victory.

"No section or group will feel left behind or left out," he promised in the speech…

Turnout was a record low at just 35.6%…

A former soldier, Mr Buhari led a military regime for 20 months in the 1980s and was first elected president in 2015, becoming the first opposition candidate to defeat an incumbent and win the presidency.

His record in office is mixed. Mr Buhari's critics say that the very attributes that won over voters four years ago - his strictness and inflexibility - have emerged as liabilities. They accuse him of autocratic leanings as well as a disastrous tendency towards inaction…

Labels: elections, leadership, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 9:22 AM 0 comments

The counting begins

Ballots are being counted in Nigeria's closely fought general election, although voting has been extended to a second day in a handful of places…

The main results centre is expected to open at 18:00 local time (17:00 GMT) in the capital, Abuja, but final results are not expected until Monday at the earliest…

Was the election peaceful?

Most of the country was calm but there were reports of attacks by the Boko Haram Islamist militant group in the north, and voter intimidation and attempts to steal ballot boxes from some polling stations, especially in the southern states of Rivers, Lagos and Anambra…

How does the election work?

The candidate with the most votes is declared the winner in the first round, as long as that person gains at least 25% of the votes in two-thirds of Nigeria's 36 states…

What are the main issues?

Nigeria is Africa's largest oil producer but corruption and a failure to invest the proceeds from the industry have hampered development in the country…

Labels: elections, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 7:51 AM 0 comments

Official word on election postponement in Nigeria

The Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, yesterday explained reasons behind the commission's decision to reschedule the 2019 elections to new dates, citing inability to distribute election materials…

According to the new timetable, polls slated for yesterday would now hold on February 23, while elections for governorship and states houses of assembly were shifted to March 9.

Yakubu, who addressed stakeholders Saturday at the National Election Collation Centre located at the International Conference Centre (ICC), Abuja, said the decision had nothing to do with security, political influence or inadequate resources.

He attributed the postponement to mainly logistical challenges faced in deploying human and material resources for the conduct of the elections.

"Apart from these logistical challenges, we also faced what may well be attempts to sabotage our preparations. In a space of two week, we had to deal with serious fire incidents in three of our offices…

Labels: elections, Nigeria

posted by Ken Wedding @ 9:15 AM 0 comments

Reconstruction in Nigeria

On Feb. 16, Nigerians [went] to the polls for a presidential election. At stake [was] not only who will be president but also fundamental issues about the structure of the Nigerian state and relations between its constituent units. Who should control the country’s oil resources and security forces? In which areas should the federal and state governments have preeminence over each other? These previously taboo questions have been elevated as key topics on the national political agenda. Regardless of who wins, President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress and his main opposition rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, have opened the door to political forces they cannot control or stop.

Buhari (left) and  Atiku Abubakar (right)

At first glance Buhari and Atiku (as he is known in Nigeria) appear to be opposites. Buhari is austere, tough on corruption, and lacking in flair…

Atiku is a gregarious multibillionaire businessman and veteran politician who is seen as business-savvy and has promised economic liberalization, but he has been dogged by corruption allegations. It seems that voters can have a fight against corruption or economic stimulus, but not both. But there is a third and more serious issue bubbling beneath the surface…

Since both men are ethnic Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria, neither can resort to pandering based on ethno-regional or religious sentiment to take votes away from the other, as is frequently the case in Nigerian elections…

For the past 20 years since Nigeria returned to democracy, the country has been stuck with a highly centralized federal structure bequeathed to it by past military governments.

This structure gives the federal government huge power over states, control of the country’s oil deposits and security forces, and the power to declare a state of emergency in any state whether or not that state consents. Rather than being reservoirs for local interests, Nigeria’s states are consequently little more than conduits for the implementation of federal government policies.

Atiku has described Nigeria’s current political system as “unworkable” and has advocated “devolution of powers and resources to states and local governments” and greater autonomy for states. To combat the insecurity that has led to the military being deployed in at least 32 of Nigeria’s 36 states, he also supports allowing Nigeria’s states to form their own police forces to reinforce Nigeria’s currently federally-controlled military and police forces. Buhari [a former military ruler] is a conservative and has rejected a political restructuring of Nigeria.

Such proposals will reverberate at both ends of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring Nigeria’s unusual federal system has been a big talking point for the last three decades. However, regional autonomy is a potentially explosive issue in a country that fought a civil war from 1967 to 1970 and sacrificed over 1 million of its citizens to prevent one of its southern regions from seceding, and in which just three of the country’s 36 states today produce 75 percent of the country’s oil and over 50 percent of government revenues.

Atiku’s proposals will delight many younger and southern Nigerians who have campaigned for such measures for three decades, hoping that it will allow Nigeria’s oil-producing states to have a greater say over and share of the profits from the oil drilled from their lands…

Historically, many northerners feared that such changes to Nigeria’s constitutional order would reduce the poorer northern states’ share of lucrative revenues from the oil fields in Nigeria’s south. The chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, Ango Abdullahi, claimed that some have “personalized restructuring with a view to targeting a section of the country, and this is the area that we feel very sensitive about, and we will resist it.”

Yet the north also has its own reasons to support Atiku’s restructuring ideas. Many complain that Nigeria’s police and soldiers (who are recruited from all over the country under a quota system) are disadvantaged in their fight against the militants of Boko Haram because most of them are not from the northeast where the insurgency emerged, are not familiar with the terrain, and don’t speak the local Kanuri language of the region, thereby making it difficult for them to win the trust of locals and obtain intelligence from them. Some argue that troops should be locals with knowledge of the local language, terrain, and customs…

Some of the military’s successes against Boko Haram have been due to the assistance given to them by a militia of local volunteers called the Civilian Joint Task Force. Using their local knowledge, the group has provided vital intelligence to the military, set up security checkpoints, arrested or executed Boko Haram members, and even assisted the military during raids. Twelve states in Nigeria’s north operate under sharia. Some of these states created enforcement corps known as Hisbah to police their legal code. Several years ago, some southern states also allowed vigilante groups to apprehend armed robbers…

[L]ocal ethno-cultural and religious differences demonstrate the challenges of allowing local communities to create their own security forces. In one part of the country they may be used to fight insurgents, to enforce a theocracy in another, or as political thugs in another. In a country with deep sectarian cleavages such as Nigeria, legislating different legal regimes for these groups would be impossible without accusations of ethnic, geographic, or religious bias. Thanks to Buhari and Atiku’s candor, these are no longer academic debates but immediate real-life problems that Nigeria’s next government must confront.

If Buhari holds on to power, he will be under pressure to respond to these thorny issues. If Atiku wins, the electorate will expect him to deliver on his campaign promises. Even if neither man intends to touch the restructuring time bomb, the issues they have raised are likely to be picked up by whoever contests the next election…

In Nigeria, younger politicians are far more likely than their conservative elders to implement massive reforms. No matter what Buhari and Atiku do, a southern successor is far more likely than them to push for radical changes to Nigeria’s structure. And that means four years from now Nigeria may have a president with the motivation to not only espouse reforms, but implement them, too.

Labels: election, federalism, leaders, Nigeria, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Danger for election

In less than two weeks, a third office of the Independent National Electoral Commission in Awka, the Anambra State capital, was engulfed in flames on Tuesday.

Awka INEC office

Loads of materials for the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for February 16, 2019, were affected by the inferno, which occurred at the INEC office near the Dr. Alex Ekwueme Square in Awka.

Card readers and other sensitive materials for the elections were razed during the incident.

The cause of the fire has not been determined as officials of the fire service are still trying to put out the fire.

Two INEC offices in Plateau and Abia states had been affected have been razed over the past few days.

The commission had called for improved security and the Inspector General of Police ordered tight security around INEC offices across the nation.

Labels: election, Nigeria, political culture

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

German analysis of Nigeria's election

This time next month Nigerians will be heading to the polls to vote in the general election. It looks likely to be a tight race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP). A record 84,004,084 people have registered to vote — an increase of 18 percent from the 2015 election.

With no opinion polls published indicating clear support for any particular candidate, it's difficult to accurately predict the outcome. Observers are already branding it one of the closest political races in the country's history.

Currently 25 candidates are set to take part. While Buhari and Abubakar are widely seen as the frontrunners, there are a number of interesting candidates in the mix.

For example, chartered accountant and activist Oby Ezekwesili – best known internationally as the founder of the #BringBackOurGirls campaign. Given that Nigeria is one of the worst countries in the world when it comes to female political representation, Ezekwesili's decision to run with the Allied National Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) could be viewed as a sign that things are slowly changing.

However, Abubakar is widely considered to be Buhari's main challenger. The former vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo has made a bid for the presidency five times for four different parties…

Buhari's chances of victory this time are less certain than in 2015, when he became the first opposition leader to win a presidential election in Nigeria. The 76-year-old has been criticized for failing to meet many of his campaign promises…

Nigeria has one of the largest youth populations in the world; however this election has again made it clear that national politics remain dominated by the older generation.

Blogger and member of the #NotTooYoungToRun campaign, Maryam Laushi, believes Buhari and Abubakar do not provide young people with a clear enough choice.

"The issue with Nigerian politics and the two major parties is that we do not clearly see a difference in ideology," she told DW. "And that lack of ideological direction makes it difficult for a voter to decide, as a young person, who to vote for. We want to know that we're going to get more jobs, we want to know that the future is secure for us."

Laushi think that cultural barriers in Nigeria, such as always placing the older generation on a higher level than the youth, are making change harder.

"In some ways this is a good value to have, but when it comes to the open political space it makes it really difficult for young people to participate."

Ultimately, it seems this election will be decided on the three key issues which also characterised the 2015 election: insecurity, the economy and corruption.

INSECURITY

Ongoing insecurity in the north of the country is a major election issue for Buhari, as extremist group Boko Haram continues to hold on to or retake ground in the country's north-east. He has been criticized for failing to stem the insurgency. But while the extremist group frequently makes international headlines, it's easy to forget that Nigeria is struggling to contain other security crises.

This includes the conflict between farmers and herders in the north-west, south-east and Middle Belt region, which is often attributed to ethnic and religious differences. There is also the issue of the Niger Delta, where militants often target oil pipelines…

THE ECONOMY

Economic concerns are likely to play a significant role in next month's elections. Current unemployment data shows unemployment has risen to 23.1 percent, up from 18.1 this time last year, and the economy is again in danger of slipping back into recession.

While both frontrunners take a similar stance on the other key issues, they differ when it comes to economic concerns. While Abubakar takes a more market-friendly, business-like approach, Buhari's policies are more interventionist. This is not surprising, as, for decades, Abubakar has been viewed by the people of Nigeria as a businessman of sorts.

CORRUPTION

Buhari frequently claims he has taken steps to tackle the country's endemic corruption. But although the government has taken some measures to reduce corruption —including the introduction of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) to manage government revenue — it still has a long way to go…

Buhari's main rival Abubakar can also hardly boast a clean record. The former vice president has been implicated in an international money laundering scandal and is banned from travelling to the United States for a reason unknown to the public; he maintains that his visa is still being processed.

The reality is that corruption remains so pervasive in Nigerian society that observers are already expecting allegations of fraud and vote buying to be voiced.

"There will be corruption," Ajala told DW. "It's practically impossible for the security apparatus to ensure free and fair elections in every polling booth."

But he remains optimistic for future elections: "Nigeria's democracy is still developing and still emerging. So it will get better. The only thing is the extent to which it will be free and fair. As long as [violations are] not widespread, then it will be acceptable."

Labels: corruption, election, Nigeria, parties, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments

Big Man politics in Nigeria

"Godfathers" in Nigerian politics don't usually run for office themselves, but many believe they are the ones who decide the election winners and losers.

With campaigning well under way for general elections on 16 February, these are the men - and they invariably are men - who pull the strings behind the scenes.

APC election banner

They are political sponsors, who use money and influence to win support for their preferred candidates.

Their "godsons", it is believed, are not always selected for their political acumen, but rather on their ability to repay and enrich their godfather.

These arrangements have spawned the term "godfatherism", says Dr Dele Ashiru, a senior lecturer at the department of political science at the University of Lagos.

"It refers to a situation where there's a big man who wields enormous political power and then anoints a godson, who he adopts as a candidate for the election.

"And the godfather will do all that is reasonably possible to get the godson appointed into political office.

"The godfather must be influential, most often they are, or were, a political office holder."

In the southern state of Akwa Ibom, the country's largest oil-producer, many people believe the main godfather is Godswill Akpabio, who holds a senate seat…

So powerful in fact that his defection just a few months ago to the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) is seen as pivotal to the party's hope of winning its first victory in the state since Nigeria's return to democracy in 1999.

A hope reiterated by President Muhammadu Buhari when he chose Akwa Ibom to launch his campaign for re-election in December.

And Mr Akpabio certainly seems to deliver in numbers. During a recent rally I spoke to followers who said he would bring more than 300,000 voters over to the APC…

In a very different part of the country, the political future of the majority Muslim state of Kano in the north may also be defined by a larger-than-life godfather.

Kano has the second-biggest number of registered voters in the country, making it a key state for either of the two main parties to secure victory.

Rabiu Kwankwaso, a former governor, has built a loyal and dedicated following there, partly built through a free education programme implemented during his tenure. Whichever candidate gets his blessing is guaranteed a lot of voters.

He is backing Abba Kabiru Yusuf, a candidate from the People's Democratic Party (PDP), after falling out with a former ally…

As godsons become political players in their own right, it is inevitable that they fall out with their godfathers…

[T]his is because in developing societies like Nigeria, the state is the most important source of revenue and wealth accumulation, which both will want to access to.

But it is also a question of ego, according to Emmanuel Onwubiko, from Human Rights Writers Association Of Nigeria.

"Some of the godfathers are not really out to get money, they just want respect, they want to be venerated if they come into the state; they want to be recognised as the most important person in that society," he says.

For Mr Ashiru this is a key problem with godfatherism: "Godfather culture is more about the individual than the collective.

"Democracy is about the people, but here you have a few individuals across the country who take critical political decisions, particularly that have to do with the recruitment of public officers.

"So it goes without saying that such a system cannot make democracy thrive."

All the politicians I spoke to shied away from the term "godfather" as it has become loaded - associated with bullish tactics and undemocratic practices.

And as godsons gain their confidence, it is not clear how much longer godfathers will be able to keep their hold on power…

Labels: corruption, elections, Nigeria, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 5:30 AM 0 comments