Still more on legitimacy in Iran
Abdul Rahman Al-Rashed (the general manager of Al-Arabiya television) uses the term "regime" in this op-ed piece, but in political science terms, he's discussing the legitimacy of the government and its policies. (It's a common use of the term "regime" in reporting and public conversation.)While popular support for the Supreme Leader, the president, and the government's policies might be in question, the threat to the legitimacy of the regime is indirect. People would have to be convinced that the system, not just the leadership, was to blame for the problems of the state. And we don't really have good indicators of nation-wide public sentiment in Iran.
Has the Regime Been Weakened?
[T]he regime of ayatollahs is not on the verge of collapse... However, the events have affected its leadership, legitimacy, reputation, and future. These events have most likely weakened it. The weakness of the regime will not be felt out in the open, but we will sense its signs in Iran's internal as well as external dealings no matter how much it pretends to be standing on its feet...
In the past, the Iranian regime boasted that it supports external movements... In the coming days, we will see that it will be forced to practice its old habits but as secretly as it can in order not to antagonize the Iranian public opinion... [T]he regime will be forced to increase domestic spending - which will place huge pressures on the budget... No matter what it costs... the regime will refrain from raising prices. It will be more determined to ensure the needs of the people from fuel to food supplies... The situation is not better in its external political relations. Major powers that support Iran, like China and Russia, will wait and reassess the domestic performance of the Iranian government...
As for the leadership establishment - the Supreme Guide, the president, and the Revolutionary Guard - we do not know how matters are proceeding there. If it is suffering from internal conflict, it will not be able to keep it a family secret for long...
Labels: Iran, legitimacy, politics
posted by Ken Wedding @ 9:27 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home