Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Thursday, December 23, 2010

Regional conflict by election

The upcoming elections are not only hampered by the theft of voting machines from the Abuja airport, but by regional rivalries within the ruling party. Will the rivalries be contained within the electoral process?

A northern bid: In primaries the ruling party looks set to pit north against south

ELECTIONS next April are already casting long shadows in Nigeria. The ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) is set to hold a presidential primary next month with a victor to be announced by January 15th. A powerful challenger to Goodluck Jonathan, the incumbent, has emerged. A bout of frantic politicking is certain.

Atiku Abubakar, a former vice-president, last month became the consensus candidate of northern Nigeria. His main selling point is that he upholds the PDP’s so-called zoning pact, whereby the presidency rotates between the country’s mostly Muslim north and largely Christian south every two terms…

The challenger is an adroit dealmaker with strong networks in north and south, aided by four wives from different parts of the country. Confident and broad-shouldered, he is said to have amassed a fortune through investments in oil-service companies and printing presses. He presents himself as pro-business, saying he would reduce the state’s role in the energy industry…

By contrast, Mr Jonathan is often seen as an accidental leader. Also a former vice-president, he came to power unexpectedly in May after the then president, Umaru Yar’Adua, died. He has since vowed to fix three of Nigeria’s biggest problems: woefully unreliable electricity; flawed elections; and an insurgency in his native Delta region…

If Mr Jonathan is hoping for an easy ride in southern Nigeria, he could be in for an nasty surprise…

Yet the presidential race is still Mr Jonathan’s to lose. Nigeria’s system favours the incumbent, who can steer a vast patronage network serviced by the energy revenues of Africa’s largest oil and gas producer.

Many voters are unkeen on all the PDP contenders, preferring candidates such as Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, or Nuhu Ribadu, a former head of the anti-corruption agency. But even after the recent court verdicts, the PDP behemoth still controls 27 of Nigeria’s 36 states—and is likely again to provide its next president.

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Labels: cleavages, elections, Nigeria, parties