Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Tuesday, October 16, 2012

Classic Reruns: Testing Hypotheses

Several years ago, I pointed out some ideas from Jeffrey Sachs. These involve self-fulfilling prophecies. I suggested then and do again that these ideas can be the basis for research by students. Iran seems the most likely subject, but I can imagine using Russia, Mexico, Nigeria, China, or even the UK (although examples there would probably be more subtle).

Testing Hypotheses

Jeffrey D. Sachs is the Director of The Earth Institute, a professor at Columbia University, Director of the UN Millennium Project, Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary-General on the Millennium Development Goals. Sachs is also President and Co-Founder of Millennium Promise Alliance, a nonprofit organization aimed at ending extreme global poverty…

In… Scientific American, Sachs wrote a little op-ed piece. It contains some interesting hypotheses that students could evaluate by doing some research on case studies…

For nations in a deep crisis, the greatest danger is a self-fulfilling prophecy of disaster...

When the public thinks that a newly elected national government will succeed, local leaders throw their support behind it. Expectations of the government's longevity rise. Individuals and companies become much more likely to pay their taxes, because they assume that the government will have the police power to enforce the tax laws.

A virtuous circle is created…

When the public believes that a government will fail, the same process runs in reverse. Pessimism splinters political forces. Tax payments and budget revenues wane. The police and other public officials go unpaid. The currency weakens. Banks face a withdrawal of deposits and the risk of banking panics. Disaster feeds more pessimism…