Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Monday, December 10, 2018

Brexit explained for Americans

This is one of the better explanations of the politics of Brexit that I've seen. It comes from a generally liberal source, but this article seems pretty unbiased.

Brexit Vote Explained: Here’s What Happens If Theresa May Loses

More than two years after the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, Brexit is almost here. Yet while the country is scheduled to depart on March 29, 2019, Britain is as divided over the issue as it ever has been.

Prime Minister Theresa May has agreed the terms of the ‘divorce’ with the leaders of the EU’s remaining member states, but lawmakers in the British parliament still have to approve the so-called Withdrawal Agreement.

In ordinary times, a Conservative government with a simple majority would be able to get the deal through the House of Commons with little fuss.

But these are extraordinary times. May cannot rely on the support from members of parliament in her own party – much less Northern Ireland’s Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), which has been propping up May’s minority government since her disastrous general election last year.

As it stands, as May bizarrely takes her Brexit plan around the country as if on the election trail, no commentator in the country expects the prime minister to get enough support when MPs vote on December 11. The only question, it seems, is how heavily she is defeated.

Then what? That’s where things get more unpredictable, with the outcomes ranging wildly from the prospect of another general election to no Brexit at all…

On Tuesday, MPs began five days of debates…

The Withdrawal Agreement they are debating outlines the terms on which the UK will leave the EU and the desired future relationship…

Some 20 Conservative MPs have said publicly they will vote against May’s deal…

Given that May doesn’t have a majority in parliament, she will be relying on support from opposition parties. May’s minority government ally, the DUP, who usually vote with the government to help them pass legislation, has also expressed its own concerns with how the deal risks separating the island of Ireland from the mainland as a trading territory…

The bottom line is this: the chance of the deal being approved with the simple majority of 320 of the 639 MPs eligible to vote is highly unlikely…

In the unlikely event that scores of MPs from across the political spectrum swing behind the embattled prime minister, it will allow the government to introduce the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill to the Commons either before Christmas or after recess (the holiday for parliament), in January.

While no guarantee of the legislation passing, it would suggest an orderly procession towards the EU exit doors…

You would expect Theresa May’s premiership to be over, right? While that’s a likely outcome, it is not the only one…

[I]f faced with the threat of a calamitous no-deal Brexit and following a narrow Commons defeat, May might fancy testing [the EU's] resolve and seeing if she can get at least some cosmetic changes to appease enough MPs to win a second vote…

Yes, taking the deal to the public is an option. May has ruled it out, and Labour has backed the idea - but only if they do not get a general election…

The ‘Hail Mary’ pass. The Prime Minister could hope that voters will - via the ballot box - back her plan. Her fellow Conservatives are anxious to avoid this route after the 2017 election…

As the opposition, the Labour Party would have to win a vote of ‘no confidence’ in the prime minister in parliament. May would then be relying on the Conservatives to put together a government which could win a second vote of no confidence, and if not a general election would be called. It would mean the DUP and a clutch of Tory rebels would have to side with Corbyn, which seems unlikely.

A series of dire warnings, most grimly spelled out by the Bank of England, suggest the impact of leaving the EU without a deal on March 29 could be a disaster. Some Tory eurosceptics - dubbed the Brexiteers - say much of this is an exaggeration. But if everything else fails it’s possible that ‘crashing out’ could happen.

The most unlikely prospect, but one given fresh momentum after the European Court of Justice indicated on Tuesday that the UK could simply change its mind and abandon Brexit - without needing the approval of the 27 other EU states. It would be wise not to rule anything out.