Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Thursday, January 24, 2019

Beware of "black swans" and "grey rhinos"

President Xi warns party leaders of an anticipated rough time ahead

Be vigilant about threats to China’s stability and reforms, Xi Jinping tells top cadres

In an opening address, Xi told provincial bosses, ministers and top generals that although China’s economy was generally performing well, they must not let their guard down and they should be aware of potential turbulence and disruption ahead.

CPC Study Session

“[We are] confronted with unpredictable international developments and a complicated and sensitive external environment. Our task at hand is to maintain stability as we continue our reform and development,” Xi was quoted as saying by state news agency Xinhua.
“We must maintain a high degree of vigilance. We must keep our high alert about any ‘black swan’ [or unforeseen] incident, and also take steps to prevent any ‘grey rhino’ [highly possible yet ignored threats].” …

According to Xinhua, the session, which emphasised how China could resolve the major risks it faced, was attended by hundreds of senior officials from all provinces and autonomous regions, top ministers and heads of party organs. It is expected to last for four days…

In his speech, Xi called for all officials to pay attention to controlling the risks facing Beijing in the areas of politics, economy, ideology and technology.

Highlighting the importance of science within national security, Xi called for more Chinese innovation and technology. “[We] must strengthen strategic judgment and deployment in major innovation sectors, and speed up setting up national labs,” he said…

Xi also called for better protection of China’s interests overseas. “[We] must strengthen protection of our overseas interests, and ensure the security of major overseas projects and personnel,” Xi said. “[We] must complete a security system for the ‘Belt and Road Initiative’.”…

Chen Daoyin, a Shanghai-based political scientist, said the focus of the session underlined Beijing’s challenge after events that have affected stability in the country over the past year.

“Beijing was presenting the image of a superpower during the 19th party congress and [its confidence] has fallen from its peak to a low point in the past year,” Chen said…

“The party needs to rally its support and set the tone for the upcoming National People’s Congress meeting in March,” Chen said. “And maintaining stability will be its top priority.”