Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Tuesday, February 03, 2015

Long range forecast

An early BBC analysis of the 2015 election in the UK. What do your lists of similarities to US elections and differences from US elections look like?

A general election that is impossible to call
With its first ever prime ministerial debates, new constituency boundaries and opinion polls suggesting the novelty of three evenly-matched Westminster parties, the 2010 general election was difficult to predict.

However, the 2015 election looks set to present us with an even bigger headache.

The great majority of parliamentary constituencies do not change party allegiance in elections…

The killing grounds in any general election - where governments are made or broken - can be found among that minority of parliamentary constituencies - marginal seats - with a history of being won or lost by parties…

[T]here are currently 194 such marginal seats in Britain, of which 82 are Conservative, 79 Labour, 27 Lib Dem, three SNP, two Plaid and one Green…

In the 2010 general election, some 12% of voters did not support the Conservative/Labour/Lib Dem parties.

In 18 opinion polls published in December 2014, that figure had more than doubled to an average of 26%…

Since 2010 we have seen a collapse in support for the Lib Dems and the rise of UKIP and the SNP and, to a lesser extent, of the Greens…

Following their disastrous performance in the 2010 election, how long did it take Labour to reach the same monthly poll average of 40%? Nine months.

Labour's extraordinary recovery was due to the early collapse in the Lib Dem vote, as hundreds of thousands of 2010 Lib Dems, horrified that their party had gone into coalition with the Conservatives, switched to Labour…

The rise of UKIP has badly damaged the Conservatives.

Currently, around 40% of UKIP's support in the polls comes from 2010 Conservatives - what I have dubbed the "Conservative wound"…

Election poll: Labour could seize eight London target seats as lead grows

An exclusive poll today suggests Labour could seize up to eight of its London target seats at the general election, putting Ed Miliband a step closer to 10 Downing Street.

With 101 days until the voting stations open, the YouGov/Evening Standard survey gives Mr Miliband’s party a clear lead in the capital, backed by 42 per cent of Londoners.

David Cameron’s Conservatives are 10 points behind, at 32 per cent, and Labour’s lead has grown two points in the past month.

Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats have been pushed into a humiliating fifth place for the first time since 2010, on seven per cent — behind Nigel Farage’s Ukip, on 10 per cent, and Natalie Bennett’s resurgent Greens, now at eight…

Teaching Comparative blog entries are indexed. Use the search box to look for country names or concept labels attached to each entry.

Just The Facts! is a concise guide to concepts, terminology, and examples that will appear on May's exam.

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At 10:44 AM, Blogger Ken Wedding said...

Britain’s Labour party to lose 30 seats in Scotland to nationalists: poll

Britain’s opposition Labour party will lose as many as 30 Scottish seats to nationalists in the May 7 election, a poll showed on Tuesday, reducing Labour leader Ed Miliband’s chances of unseating Prime Minister David Cameron.

Scots voted to stay part of the United Kingdom in a Sept. 18 referendum, but support for the Scottish National Party has since soared on the perception that London will not deliver the extra powers it promised to swing the poll result.

The Times said that when plugged into a model, the results would give the SNP 48 out of 59 seats in Scotland, up from the 6 it won in 2010, leaving Labour just 11 seats, down from the 41 it won in 2010.


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