Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

A poll from Nigeria

I mentioned that I hadn't seen any poll results from Nigeria to back up the wide-spread reports that the presidential race was very close. Well, here's a poll. It was done in December.

Elections 'Too Close to Call' in Nigeria, Says Major Survey

Nigeria's upcoming elections are likely to be the most competitive in the country's history, with the parties running neck-and-neck and the outcome "too close to call", according to a major survey of public opinion published in Lagos on Tuesday.

The survey, carried out by Afrobarometer, the leading continent-wide researcher of African public opinion, portrays Nigerians as people who are deeply unhappy with the country's trajectory, who believe the government is performing badly, and who also distrust the electoral process.

But it nevertheless shows that they still believe elections are the best way of choosing leaders and that the vast majority say they will probably turn out to vote on February 14…

Asked about their voting intentions, 42 percent of respondents chose the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP), and 42 percent the principal challenger, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

When asked not who they would vote for, but who they expected to win, 40 percent said the PDP and 38 percent the APC. These figures are within the survey's margin of sampling error of plus or minus two percent…

Still, Nigerians are sceptical as to whether their votes will remove from office leaders who don't do what people want. Only 10 percent are confident this will happen, while 68 percent say elections do "not at all well" or "not very well" in removing unpopular leaders.

Regional political divisions are clearly shown when voting intentions are broken down by party:

South South: 65 percent will vote for the PDP; 20 percent for the APC

South East: 61 percent PDP; four percent APC

North Central: 45 percent PDP; 35 percent APC

North West: 59 percent APC; 20 percent PDP

South West: 46 percent APC; 19 percent PDP

North East: 44 percent APC; 43 percent PDP

The survey results can be downloaded from "Nigeria heads for closest election on record"