Nigerian presidential race
From the U.S., it may appear that the only thing going on with the Nigerian presidential election is the court case surrounding vice-president Abubakar's disqualification.However, if you look at the Nigerian press, much more is visible. Here's where those links I pointed out yesterday become helpful.
From Guardian (Lagos), 19 March:
- Ben Obi, AC warn against dictatorship, tenure extension
"PRESIDENTIAL running mate, Chief Ben Ndi Obi, has urged Nigerians to view the hiccups around next month's general election, particularly the disqualification of Vice President Atiku Abubakar as another attempt at deliberately creating a chaotic atmosphere that will be used as an excuse to elongate the tenure of the Olusegun Obasanjo government..." - I will quit on May 29, says Obasanjo
"IN a veiled reference to those who believe that the current administration still nurses an alleged third-term agenda, President Olusegun Obasanjo at the weekend in Benin said that the April polls must be held as scheduled and the winners sworn in on May 29..." - Police, INEC are President's tools, says Umar
"FORMER Military Governor of Kaduna State and social critic, Col. Abubakar Dangiwa Umar (rtd), at the weekend accused the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the top hierarchy of the Nigeria Police of playing President Olusegun Obasanjo's script to prevent Vice President Atiku Abubakar from contesting for the Presidency in April..." - Buhari takes campaign to Abiola's home
"ALL Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) presidential candidate, Maj.-Gen. Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), at the weekend took his presidential campaign to the Ikeja, Lagos home of the late Chief M. K. O Abiola, the presumed winner of the June 12, 1993 annulled presidential election..."
From Vanguard (Lagos)
- Iwu, others get death threats
"CHAIRMAN of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Maurice Iwu, and some other top officials of the Commission are said to have been receiving death threats from unknown quarters following last week’s disqualification of Vice President Atiku Abubakar from next month’s presidential race..." - Atiku, Buhari others in talks as Atiku refuses to opt out....Resumes campaign tomorrow
"Presidential candidates of some of the country’s major opposition political parties were last night locked in crucial talks in collective pursuit for a level playing ground in the forthcoming elections.
"Those involved in the talks include Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the Action Congress (AC), Major General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), Dim Odumegwu Ojukwu of the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) and Prof. Pat Utomi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC)...
From This Day (Lagos)
- INEC Justifies Stopping Atiku
"In a move to justify its disqualification of Vice President Atiku Abubakar from contesting the April polls, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) yesterday said its stand has been vindicated by a recent judgment of Justice Binta Nyako over the eligibility of candidates contesting in the April elections..." - ...It’s an Invitation to Chaos, Says Ben Obi
"Senator Ben Obi, running-mate of the Action Congress (AC) Presidential flag-bearer, has described Atiku’s disqualification by INEC, as a serious blow on the country’s democratic profile, saying those at the helm of affairs at the presidency and their henchmen are by their conduct creating grounds for instability in the country..." - Danger Ahead of April Elections
"In the last one week, there have been reports of violent clashes between supporters of some candidates in Ogun, Lagos, Ekiti, Kwara , Sokoto and Bauchi states..."
from The Abuja Inquirer (Abuja)
- Anxiety mounts over Yar’Adua’s condition *Supporters, PDP in frantic moves *INEC faces Electoral Act dilemma
When the rumour of the “death” of the PDP presidential candidate and incumbent governor of Katsina State, Alhaji Umar Musa Yar’Adua, broke last Wednesday and began to spread like wild fire, palpable suspense pervaded the land...
Also, reports from the PDP national secretariat said the rumour of Yar’Adua’s death polarised the party’s officials along geo-political divides. Those from the South-South... were said to have held several meetings and told Yar’Adua’s running mate, to insist on flying the party’s flag as the presidential candidate and not to allow any other presidential candidate from the North to be nominated to replace Yar’Adua.
But some Northern elements at the PDP secretariat were said to have held another separate meeting... and decided to reach out to one of the party’s presidential aspirants, who is a northerner like Yar’Adua, to replace Yar’Adua if the rumour of his death at a German hospital was confirmed...
1 Comments:
I can't help but wonder if there's an element of poor institutional design here:
it seems a common policy in Africa (see Congo) to endow administration enemies with such nebulously defined posts as "vice president."
But it's already uncertain whether a man like Obasanjo will step down after becoming accustomed to power and feeling his anti-corruption legacy might be incomplete. Couple that with a perceived threat, within the levers of power, and the temptation to interfere with orderly regime change mounts.
Furthermore, we've got something of a 'second best' contracting here. There clearly incomplete information as to how the next president will behave. Obasanjo has beliefs, and acts upon these to maximize what he hopes to be best for his country (cast aside cynicism). Because the mechanism is not in place for him to ensure the desirable outcome by desirable means, he's forced to take backhanded steps. Which encourages the "right" outcome in the election, but undercuts "right" rule of law.
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