Teaching Comparative

Leadership and democracy in China

The historian who writes the Jottings from the Granite Studio, pointed me to blogger Li Datong's analysis of leadership changes in China. His description of leadership changes over the past 60 years seem detailed and reasonable to me, although I'm not an expert. His optimistic conclusion requires some evaluation that we may not be able to do for another 5-10 years.

Li Datong is described on the Open Democracy web site as "a Chinese journalist and a former editor of Bingdian (Freezing Point), a weekly supplement of the China Youth Daily newspaper."

This essay could be a valuable supplement to your textbook. I'd like to find an alternative analysis to use with students as an evaluation exercise.

China’s leadership: the next generation

"The five-yearly national congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes place on 15-19 October 2007, the seventeenth such event in the party's history. Anyone who is interested in Chinese politics is paying close attention to the preparations. The most suspenseful aspect of the build-up is speculation over who will be on the new politburo standing committee - the highest level of party leadership...

"[H]igh-level party politics have always lacked transparency. The manoeuvrings are highly complex and wouldn't seem out of place in a novel on royal court conspiracies. We often only see how things are going to turn out at the very last moment... However, the perspective of party history offers a route to discern the important changes that are beginning to take place in the ways in which party leaders are selected.

"In the past, a key characteristic of the party's paramount leader was that, as an individual, he had significantly higher status than the rest of the party leadership...

[In the middle part of this essay, Li Datong, describes Mao's ascent to power and the leadership changes since 1976. He continues by describing his vision for what's going to happen as Hu's successor is chosen.]

"Hu will be looking at the group of potential successors and seeing that none of them is in a stronger position than any of the others. The rising stars... are starting out on a level playing-field.

'It is this set of circumstances that will give rise to real change. All Hu can now do is bring a group of potential successors (probably three or four people) into the politburo standing committee and see who can establish the most authority for themselves over the coming five years. Then, before he steps down at the eighteenth party congress in 2012, he must put in place a strict system for choosing between these candidates. This system can only be in the form of an election - there is no other legitimate way of selecting the next leader. This will be the start of the democratisation of the Chinese Communist Party.

"The party was founded in 1921, and intra-party democracy could be established by 2012. Ninety years is a long time for this development to emerge, but the rule in Chinese politics has always been the same: the older generation has to disappear before the new generation can truly emerge."

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However, Joseph Kahn reported in the New York Times on 13 October, the "manoeuvrings" of party politics have indeed been complex. Jiang Zemin and his Shanghai "clan" still have considerable power and seem to have designated President Hu's successor. It's probably wise to take into account Kahn's reminder that " top leaders have continued to bargain and make changes in the hierarchy even after the Central Committee approved a slate of candidates..." Before you begin entering names into a new leadership list, check Kahn's facts after the Party Congress ends.

Whether this supports the idea that more transparency and democracy within the Party is likely remains to be seen. Kahn is certainly skeptical about that prospect. (See last quoted paragraphs.)

New China Hierarchy May Limit President’s Power

"After intensive bargaining, China’s Communist Party has approved a new leadership lineup that denies President Hu Jintao the decisive consolidation of power that his supporters hoped would allow him to govern more assertively in his final five-year term as China’s top leader...

"Xi Jinping, the party boss of Shanghai, is also expected to join the Standing Committee... and become the most likely successor to Mr. Hu as party chief...

"Mr. Xi, whose father was a senior party official under Mao, is viewed as a compromise choice, acceptable to Mr. Hu but also to his now-retired predecessor as top leader, Jiang Zemin, who party officials say exercised broad sway over the reshuffling...

"Personnel shifts in the ruling party are decided in secret, and the final leadership lineup will not be made public until the conclusion of a party congress, which convenes Monday. In the past, top leaders have continued to bargain and make changes in the hierarchy even after the Central Committee approved a slate of candidates...

"[T]he coming party congress seems likely to underscore the collective nature of decision making in the ruling party...

"The semiofficial China News Service said Thursday in a report that Mr. Hu would not follow Mao’s or Mr. Deng’s lead in picking a successor, but would rely on “collective discussion and collective decisions” within the party...

" Some political observers have suggested that by having two younger members of the Standing Committee, the choice of a future leader could become competitive, permitting the 190 members and the 152 alternate members of the Central Committee to choose among candidates rather than ratifying decisions made at the very top...

"[O]ne person said, 'The party is too concerned about stability to leave the issue undecided.'"

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Labels: China, democratization, leadership, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 8:44 AM