On the other Iranian hand...
Mehdi Khalaji [left], a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and a Shiite theologian, disagrees with The Economist's analysis of politics in Iran. (See Elite Politics.)How well could your students sort out these perspectives?
This opinion piece comes from Project Syndicate:
The Decline of Ahmedinejad
"Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad may be gaining support across the Muslim world for his fervent criticism of the United States, but inside Iran, he is losing strength. His political rivals are gaining new positions of power, and the population is increasingly unhappy with the economy’s continuing decline.
"Since its inception, the Islamic Republic has had a weak presidency; ultimate authority rests with the Supreme Leader, first Ayatollah Khomeini and now Ayatollah Khamenei. The Islamic Republic’s first president, Abolhassan Bani Sadr, was dismissed from office a year after his election. Ever since, the regime has been intolerant of a strong president, and has repeatedly demonstrated that the office is subservient to the Supreme Leader...
"Ahmedinejad’s opponents are moving to reassert longstanding constraints on the presidency. His foremost rival, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, a former president who Ahmedinejad defeated to win the post, has had a remarkable reversal of fortune, reemerging as leader of the Assembly of Experts, the powerful body that elects Iran’s Supreme Leader and that can even remove a Supreme Leader from office.
"Moreover, conservatives who had aligned themselves with Ahmedinejad are now criticizing him openly. Even Ayatollah Khamenei, who as Supreme Leader is also commander-in-chief of the armed forces, has taken steps to demonstrate his authority, recently firing the leaders of the Revolutionary Guard and the Basij militia...
"While Ahmedinejad continues his verbal attacks on the US, he does not control the policy-making apparatus that will decide about Iran’s nuclear program and its relations with the international community. The threat of sanctions remains potent, and the Iranian business community – not to mention the public – has felt the sting of isolation...
"So, as disputes with the West come to a head, it is important to recognize the power shifts underway inside Iran’s opaque political system. Ahmedinejad may be making increasingly challenging statements, but he does not have the authority to act on them. Indeed, only a military confrontation with the US can bring him back to the center of decision-making. American policymakers should bear that in mind."
Labels: Iran, leadership, politics
posted by Ken Wedding @ 6:06 AM
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