More analysis of Iranian politics
The Economist published another analysis of Iranian politics. It's similar to the earlier Washington Post analysis that suggested that today's prominent divisions were generational. This analysis suggests the big divisions are political and religious.New parliament, new policies?
"It's no longer reformists against conservatives in Iran but pragmatic conservatives against the hardliners.
"Its rulers have long boasted that Iran has the only democratic government in a region of despots and monarchs. The country's parliament, or majlis, is certainly not the rubber-stamp body that rules most of the Arab roosts. But the election due on March 14th shows why Iran's system of government is so hard to categorise. The ballot may be neither free nor fair, but the candidates vary, competition can be fierce and the results are hard to predict...
"On paper, the 290-seat majlis looks like any other parliament. It drafts laws, ratifies treaties (such as on nuclear non-proliferation) and debates the annual budget. In theory it can remove cabinet ministers and impeach the president for misconduct.
"In practice, it plays second fiddle to the Guardian Council... [that can] vet all candidates and can veto parliamentary legislation...
"With little hope of an electoral comeback, the reformists are glum. Four years ago they protested against their wholesale disqualification by boycotting the election...
"Indeed, the previous contest pitting conservatives against reformists has been superseded by one between hardline conservatives sympathetic to Mr Ahmadinejad (“men of principle”, as they call themselves) and more pragmatic conservatives less in thrall to revolutionary ideology. This latter group is gathering around a former nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani (who is running for a seat in parliament), the mayor of Tehran, Muhammad Qalibaf, and a former commander of the Revolutionary Guards, Mohsen Rezaii...
"Mr Ahmadinejad's weak spot is the economy. Thanks as much to his mismanagement as to international sanctions, Iran is a rare big oil-producing country where economic conditions have worsened despite a tripling of oil prices. This may help the pragmatic conservatives...
"Tehran is Iran's political heart and soul, the low turnout among disaffected urban sophisticates means they no longer set the political pace...
"Iranian politics are dominated by personalities and factions rather than political parties. This confers an advantage on the hardliners, who can call on state organisations such as the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij militia to turn out their vote. Yet elections in Iran often surprise. The pragmatists might still do well in the majlis elections. That would not change Iran at a stroke: the lesson of the Khatami era was that real power lay with the supreme leader rather than with parliament. But a rebuff in the majlis election could damage Mr Ahmadinejad's chances of remaining president after June next year—and send a powerful signal of discontent to the supreme leader himself."
See also:
- 280 out of 2,200 in Iran
- Another interpretation of Iranian politics
- An Iranian name to remember
- Power to the supreme leader
- More on Iranian politics
Labels: elections, Iran, leadership, politics
posted by Ken Wedding @ 8:34 PM
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