Teaching Comparative

Pressures on Iranian policy makers

My wife sent me the link to Michael Slackman's New York Times story on what he describes as a mounting crisis in Iran. She recognized the relevance of this article to the study of comparative politics. That's a tiny bit of what she's learned from living with me and editing my books. Put these pressures together with the selection of candidates for the March elections and you have ingredients for real problems.

But, remember, the Chinese character for "crisis." It's made up of two other characters: one meaning "danger" and the other meaning "opportunity."

A Frail Economy Raises Pressure on Iran’s Rulers

"In one of the coldest winters Iranians have experienced in recent memory, the government is failing to provide natural gas to tens of thousands of people across the country, leaving some for days or even weeks with no heat at all. Here in the capital, rolling blackouts every night for a month have left people without electricity, and heat, for hours at a time.

"The heating crisis in this oil-exporting nation is adding to Iranians’ increasing awareness of the contrast between their growing influence abroad and frailty at home, according to government officials, diplomats and political analysts interviewed here.

"From fundamentalists to reformists, people here are talking more loudly about the need for a more pragmatic approach, one that tones down the anti-Western rhetoric, at least a bit, and focuses more on improving management of the country and restoring Iran's economic health...

"There are increasing signals, however, that the government is not interested in hearing other voices and is geared instead toward maintaining power by silencing critics. For the parliamentary elections, so far about 70 percent of all reform candidates have been disqualified...

"For years it seemed that Iran was evolving away from a state defined exclusively by revolutionary ideology. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, himself a father of the revolution, emphasized pragmatic economic ties. His successor, Mohammad Khatami, eased up on social restrictions and called for a 'dialogue of civilizations.'

'Then came Mr. Ahmadinejad, who rose from a new generation, a class of men who fought in the eight-year war with Iraq, and who have since moved to roll back Iran to a time when revolutionary ideology defined the state...

"President Ahmadinejad so changed the direction of the state that it has led many to assert that three decades after the revolution, Iran remains a place defined by individuals, not institutions.

"Nearly everyone seems to recognize that one of the biggest problems is the nature of the political system — divided as it is among multiple factions, each striving for access to power. It is not one devised to build compromise, and the internal fighting can send confused messages to the outside world...

"At least two views exist about where this is leading. One view is that Mr. Ahmadinejad and his radical allies needed to come to power to see that ideology cannot be a successful guide to running a modern state like Iran...

"Another view holds that Mr. Ahmadinejad and his ideologically driven allies will not give up power, and will not be driven from power..."

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See also:

• Power to the supreme leader
• More on Iranian politics
• Politics of inaction
• Stirrings of electoral politics in Iran
• Politics in Iran
• The blog index of entries on Iran

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Labels: economics, Iran, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 7:42 AM