Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

London School of Economics prediction

The Monkey Cage directs us to the results of some work by people at the London School of Economics. Many more details available at that site.

Get Your UK Election Forecasting Here

Simon Hix and Nick Vivyan at LSE provide the most useful UK poll tracking and election prognoses that I’ve seen.

The dots in the figure show the results from the various polls and the shaded areas around the lines are the 95 per cent confidence intervals around the mean standings of the parties. … As of 26 April, the national standing of the parties was 33.3 per cent for the Conservatives (up 1.0 per cent from our 19 April analysis), 26.5 per cent for Labour (down 0.3 per cent), and 29.3 per cent for the Lib Dems (down 0.8 per cent).

Find out What You Need to Know

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