Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Monday, September 27, 2010

Interpreting in the dark

When a political system is closed and important events take place behind the scenes, observers have to guess at the implications of actions taken in public as results of those events. In the old days, Kremlinologists tried to discern what was going on in the Politburo by noticing who stood where on the Kremlin wall for the May Day Parade in Moscow. They're doing more of that again these days. We do things like that with China and Iran all the time. Here's another example.

Then there are the public actions described in the report from The Washington Post below.

What the Hiker Release Says About Iran's Internal Power Struggle

Nothing is ever simple when it comes to the Islamic Republic, and the tug-of-war between different arms of the Iranian government that preceded Sarah Shourd's release… reveals a level of chaos and political infighting inside the regime that could complicate future diplomatic efforts…

[W]hat was most notable about Shourd's release was the rebuke it involved for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the hands of his own judiciary…

Ahmadinejad had originally planned to schedule the captive's release for Saturday, in a ceremony at the presidential palace, as part of an effort to showcase his magnanimity ahead of his visit to the U.N. General Assembly in New York City later this month. But when that news spread, a halt was called by Iran's judiciary — controlled by rival conservatives who are loyal to Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenei but antagonistic to Ahmadinejad, not least for usurping the powers of other arms of government…

"The judiciary, one of the many institutions Ahmadinejad has offended, was prepared to release Ms. Shourd, but not to let him get the credit for it," says Gary Sick, a Columbia University Iran expert and former National Security Council official. "They made clear that the release was their game, not his. The infighting in Tehran is really vicious right now, and more publicly visible than it's ever been. Ahmadinejad was really embarrassed by this."…

Ahmadinejad and the forces behind him are, in fact, in a state of open conflict not only with the judiciary but also with Iran's elected parliament, the Foreign Ministry (which reports to the Supreme Leader) and the Guardian Council, the appointed clerical body created precisely for the purpose of resolving disputes between different parts of Iran's complex theocratic quasi democracy. Those bodies are all controlled by rival conservatives, some of them loyal to the Supreme Leader. The President, who relies heavily on backing from the Revolutionary Guard Corps, is also increasingly at odds with much of the conservative clergy. There have even been signs of open conflict between the President and the Supreme Leader, who threw his weight behind Ahmadinejad during the chaotic aftermath of last year's contested election when the legitimacy of the incumbent's re-election was challenged by reformists and rival conservatives.

Despite the intensity of the feuding, the factional battles aren't reducible to any neat hawk-vs.-dove characterizations; they're all about power and its prerogatives in a system that puts final executive authority in the hands of an unelected clergy, but creates some measure of separation of powers with elected institutions…

Cleric calls on Iran to take U.S.-led sanctions seriously

An influential former Iranian president... criticized the government in unusually blunt terms, saying that it is not taking U.S.-led sanctions seriously enough and that Iran could become a "dictatorship."

The remarks by Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani represent a rebuke of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad…

Ahmadinejad and his supporters have been under increasing pressure from multiple power centers in Iran.

A series of public disagreements between Ahmadinejad's government and the parliament, influential clerics and even some of the president's own ministers have led to a crisis atmosphere, which has heightened political tensions in the country…

Rafsanjani and Ahmadinejad have long been rivals, and Rafsanjani was considered a behind-the-scenes force in the Green Movement that challenged the government after last year's disputed elections. His words could be an opening shot that allows lower-level politicians to increase pressure on the president. Already, members of parliament are hinting at a possible impeachment motion against Ahmadinejad. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for a special mediation council to solve rising problems between the government and the parliament…

Speaking out during a meeting of the 86-member Assembly of Experts, a clerical council, Rafsanjani also deplored violent groups that in recent months have besieged houses of prominent clerics, the parliament and shops in the Tehran bazaar...

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Labels: Iran, politics