Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Wednesday, September 22, 2010

And the next British PM will be...

The contest for leadership in the Labour Party might well choose the next prime minister.

And the winner is…

FOR the first time in thirty years, the Labour Party is electing a new leader without knowing in advance who it is likely to be…

David Miliband, [at left in the photograph] the former foreign secretary… is still the narrow favourite. But his younger brother, Ed [at right], has a broad popularity in the party that may yet bring him victory…

The mechanics of the contest make polling and prediction difficult: the tripartite electoral college comprises party members; MPs and MEPs; and the members of affiliated trades unions, who vote individually rather than as a bloc. Voters can rank candidates, so second-preferences count if nobody wins a majority of first choices. Ballots were sent out earlier this month. The result is due on September 25th…

David Miliband is the closest thing the contest has to a New Labour candidate…

But the elder Miliband makes plenty of nods to the left, too…

There are great opportunities for whoever takes the crown. The party does not need a huge leap in parliamentary seats to win the next election. Polls already put it close to the Tories—before its new leader is unveiled and the coalition’s austerity drive bites. Even if no candidate matches David Cameron, the prime minister, as a political performer, Labour could have a stronger front-bench team than the coalition. They have many politicians with the profile cabinet experience bestows, but who are still young enough to represent the future...

Meanwhile, the winner will need to hurry. George Osborne, the chancellor of the exchequer, delivers his spending review on October 20th. Labour’s new leader will have less than a month to formulate his response, which could bind and define his leadership for over four years.