Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Thursday, September 16, 2010

What if they held an election and...

To simple minded observers like me, it seems pretty early to start worrying about what happens if Nigeria's elections next January "fail." But, on second thought, I certainly understand why the questions are legitimate and the worries realistic.

Imnakoya, writing in the blog Grandiose Parlor reacts to a Foreign Affairs article by a former US ambassador to Nigeria. The conclusions they share sound like what I'd probably come to if I gave this much thought right now. In fact, the identification of the military as the "ultimate guarantor of the state’s security," parallels what I wrote in my book.

The Nigeria of 2011 and beyond

In the event of a failed elections in 2011, would Nigeria capitulate? This is the question analyzed on Foreign Affairs Magazine by John Campbell, the former U.S Ambassador to Nigeria…

There are some troubling indicators about the conduct and outcome of the 2011 elections…

While a part of me wants to down-play the possibility of a post-election crisis in 2011, historical and recent precedents suggest it is not off-limit. One of the greatest challenges facing Nigeria is in the area of security… These are maladies of a weakened nation, and an indication that Nigeria may not be well equipped and ready to manage a major political crisis…

My hope is that Nigeria finds his magic once again, as it has been able to do in recent times by pulling back from the brink of widespread crisis, often at the very last minute.

Nigeria on the Brink

The 2011 elections in Nigeria, scheduled for January 22, pose a threat to the stability of the United States’ most important partner in West Africa. The end of a power-sharing arrangement between the Muslim North and the Christian South, as now seems likely, could lead to postelection sectarian violence, paralysis of the executive branch, and even a coup…

Unlike in every previous election since 1999, no elite consensus exists for the 2011 poll, nor is there an Obasanjo-like figure strong enough to impose one. Although it is still dominated by elites and their patronage networks, the Nigerian political sphere is wide open.
Many in the North believe it is still their turn for the presidency, but the northern power brokers do not agree on who should be their presidential candidate. Several northern politicians, including Ibrahim Babangida and Muhammadu Buhari, both former military dictators, are running for the presidency…

Jonathan, with the advantages of presidential incumbency, has also announced that he will run. This could mean the presidential contest will feature one or more northern Muslim candidates opposing Jonathan against the backdrop of ethnic and religious violence in the Middle Belt, Muslim extremism in the North, and an ongoing insurrection in the oil-rich Niger Delta. In such a fraught environment, supporters of candidates might exploit religious and ethnic identities, a dangerous and potentially explosive dynamic that until now has largely been avoided.

Logistical preparations for the 2011 elections have not started. There is no voters roll, and despite the president’s signing of an electoral reform bill, some of these reforms remain unimplemented four months before the election. The election therefore will almost certainly lack legitimacy, especially in the eyes of the losers. This will further drive the country to the brink, especially if winners and losers are defined by their religious and ethnic backgrounds… the danger of Nigeria plunging into postelection violence is a real possibility.

The Nigerian military still regards itself as the ultimate guarantor of the state’s security, and most political elites agree. In the event of postelection sectarian violence and a political breakdown, it could intervene if the civilian government loses control… Yet the return to power of the so-called men on horseback in Nigeria would pose special challenges for Washington, considering congressional requirements that Washington scale back contact with military governments that overthrow civilian governments. It would also be anathema to the African Union’s principled stand against military coups…

Nigerians have long danced on the edge of the cliff without falling off. Yet at this juncture, the odds are not good for a positive outcome, and it is difficult to see how Nigeria can move back from the brink.

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Labels: elections, Nigeria, politics