Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Friday, October 22, 2010

Not Hu; not Wen; but Xi and Li

When the Communist Party Central Committee met in Beijing, they all but announced the order of succession for Party and government leadership.

Chinese Promotion Puts Official on Track for Presidency

Xi Jinping, China’s vice president, was named to an important military position on Monday, continuing his elevation to the top echelons of China’s leadership and reconfirming that the Communist Party had selected him as the successor to President Hu Jintao.

Mr. Xi [above], a provincial governor who emerged as the heir apparent in 2007 when he received a senior rank on the Politburo Standing Committee, was named vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, which oversees the People’s Liberation Army and its branches. The post fills the last remaining gap in Mr. Xi’s résumé and means that he is following the succession track that Mr. Hu took a decade ago on his way to assuming China’s top party, state and military titles.

Barring a major upset, Mr. Xi, 57, is now on track to become Communist Party secretary when Mr. Hu’s term ends in 2012, and president in 2013…

The rise of Mr. Xi has been smoothed by his connections; he is the son of Xi Zhongxun, a onetime revolutionary guerrilla and deputy prime minister who helped Mr. Hu rise through the ranks and shepherded the spectacular success of Shenzhen, China’s first free-market economic zone, 30 years ago…

Senior appointments in China are made by consensus among the political elite, with the elder generation of leaders accorded a prominent say in selecting junior officials they expect to accede to the top posts a decade or more down the road. Elders tend to favor officials in their mid- to late 50s who have a lifetime of obedient service. Blandness — at least to the general public — is not an impediment to promotion…

Why Mr. Xi emerged from relative obscurity to become heir apparent three years ago is a matter of mystery and speculation. Some close observers of Chinese politics say the man considered to be Mr. Hu’s personal top choice as successor, Li Keqiang [below], another provincial leader, failed to win the backing of some members of China’s old guard, headed by the former top leader Jiang Zemin. Mr. Xi was a compromise acceptable to both Mr. Jiang and Mr. Hu, these observers say.
Mr. Li, who sits on the Politburo Standing Committee along with Mr. Xi, is now expected to succeed Prime Minister Wen Jiabao when he retires along with Mr. Hu in 2012...