Informed analysis of conflict in Iran
Peter Whitehouse, who teaches at The Bolles School in Jacksonville, FL, pointed out Juan Cole's blog, Informed Comment. The most recent positing there was an analysis of the power struggle in Iran by Dr. Farhang Jahanpour. Dr. Jahanpour is a former professor and dean of the Faculty of Languages at the University of Isfahan, Iran, and now a tutor at the University of Oxford.Thanks for the tip. The analysis is helpful in making sense of what's going on in Tehran.
Is Iran Next? Supreme Leader Versus Ahmadinejad
Despite the political turmoil and subsequent crackdowns in Iran since summer, 2009, seeming unity among the hardliners who rule the country was largely preserved. Recently, however, the façade of unity between Supreme Leader Ali Khamene’i and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been totally shattered and deep hostility between them has come to the fore…
[T]wo weeks ago, [Ahmadinejad] dismissed the new Minister of Intelligence, Heydar Moslehi. Various Iranian sources have reported that allegedly Moslehi was secretly recording the telephone conversations of Masha’i and other government ministers. However, the problem goes deeper than that. The next Iranian parliamentary election is due to be held in March 2012, followed by the next presidential election in June 2013. Ahmadinejad has been trying to groom Masha’i as the next president so that his legacy will continue.
Many pro-government websites in Iran have compared the relationship between Ahmadinejad and Masha’i to that between the former Russian President Vladimir Putin and his protégé President Dmitry Medvedev. If Masha’i could succeed Ahmadinejad, there is a chance that Ahmadinejad could run again after Masha’i’s term. However, the qualifications of the candidates both for Majlis and presidential elections should be approved by the Guardian Council, which acts partly on the recommendation of the minister of intelligence. Therefore, the reports prepared by the minister of intelligence are crucial for the success or failure of any presumptive candidates…
This time, Khamene’i objected to Moslehi’s dismissal, but as usual Ahmadinejad ignored his advice. This forced the leader to go over the president’s head and in a letter to Moslehi he reinstated him to his post…
This is certainly the biggest challenge facing Ahmadinejad and one of the most serious challenges facing Khamene’i. It was assumed that the president enjoyed the backing of the revolutionary guards, in which he had served during the Iran-Iraq war. However, it seems that the revolutionary guards are more inclined to back the supreme leader. With the support of powerful revolutionary guards and the overwhelming majority of the top clerics, Khamene’i is in a much stronger position than his appointed president…
Ahmadinejad seems to have three options, either to resign and go quietly, or to stand up to Khamene’i and face a major and probably a bloody showdown, or finally to swallow his pride, remain in office but continue to oppose Khamene’i’s policies. In any case, the Islamic Republic of Iran is going to have an exciting time ahead of it.
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Labels: Iran, leadership, politics
posted by Ken Wedding @ 3:14 PM
1 Comments:
An article in The Economist offers a slightly different analysis of the power struggle in Iran. The Economist reporter thinks that Ahmadinejad is in a more powerful position than Dr. Jahanpour does.
Trouble at the top
"The supreme leader is supposed to stay aloof from the cut and thrust of mundane politics. On a visit to southern Iran last month he praised the government and stressed that he intervened only when he felt that “expediency is ignored”. But each time Mr Ahmadinejad forces him to interfere in low politics, Mr Khamenei’s position looks a little shakier. The supreme guide is no longer infinitely above Mr Ahmadinejad; he is part of the competition."
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