Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Thursday, November 08, 2012

More speculation about Chinese politics

Politics in China is so opaque that it's difficult, if not impossible, for outsiders — even Chinese outsiders — to know what's going on. As one of my professors once said, it's like trying to describe what's going on inside of a large black bag full of cats.

Here are the summaries of Edward Wong, Jonathan Ansfield and Amy Qin of the speculations of outside observers.

Long Retired, Ex-Leader of China Asserts Sway Over Top Posts

Jiang

In a year of scandals and corruption charges at the commanding heights of the Communist Party, a retired party chief some had written off as a spent force has thrust himself back into China’s most important political decisions…

Mr. Jiang, who left office a decade ago, has worked assiduously behind the scenes, voicing frustration with the record of his successor, Hu Jintao, and maneuvering to have his protégés dominate the party’s incoming ruling group…

Mr. Jiang and Mr. Hu arrived together [at the start of the 18th Party Congress] at the Great Hall of the People, before others in the senior leadership — another sign of Mr. Jiang’s influence.

Mr. Jiang’s goal, those insiders say, appears to be to put China back on a path toward market-oriented economic policies that he and his allies argue stagnated under a decade of cautious leadership by Mr. Hu, a colorless party leader who favored more traditional socialist programs and allowed gargantuan state-owned companies to amass greater wealth and influence…

Mr. Jiang was able to outflank Mr. Hu to shape a new lineup for the Politburo Standing Committee, the top decision-making body, which appears to have Jiang allies chosen for five of the projected seven seats, according to party insiders. The most prominent is Xi Jinping, the designated heir to Mr. Hu as party chief and president…

That Mr. Jiang has been able to insert himself so boldly shows how diluted power has become at the apex of the Communist Party… Mr. Jiang’s return to the center of party politics also exposes fundamental weaknesses in a system that relies on factional alliances and aging patriarchs to make crucial decisions…

China’s ambitions to rise to be a modern global power remain yoked to a secretive political system in which true authority resides in hidden recesses. That could spell trouble for Mr. Hu’s presumed successor, Mr. Xi, who has yet to establish his own credentials as the party’s ultimate authority. When the congress ends next week, there will be 20 retired Standing Committee members, most of whom expect some say in running the country and appointing allies…

Some intellectuals and policy advisers are seeking a significant relaxation of China’s authoritarian political system, but there is no sign Mr. Jiang backs any such transformation. Instead, he seems primarily focused on economic issues…

Political insiders said Mr. Jiang’s involvement in determining the new Standing Committee, expected to be announced at the end of the congress next week, is his clearest expression of impatience with Mr. Hu’s policies and faction. Months ago, analysts had expected the incoming committee to be almost evenly balanced between Hu and Jiang allies. But Mr. Jiang’s power plays, aided by scandals this year, including one that weakened Ling Jihua, a powerful aide of Mr. Hu’s, have changed that…