Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Friday, December 01, 2017

Some costs of Brexit

How will these predictions play with voters in the UK?

Brexit: UK divorce bill offer worth up to 50bn euros
The UK has offered a larger potential "divorce bill" to the EU - which could be worth up to 50bn euros (£44bn), the BBC understands.

There has been no final agreement on a number but the offer was given a "broad welcome" by Brussels, BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said.

No 10 has played down reports the final sum could be up to 55bn euros (£49bn)…

The UK is hoping to move on to talking about trade but the EU will only do this when it deems "sufficient progress" has been made on three areas - the so-called divorce bill, the rights of EU citizens in the UK after Brexit and the Irish border…

EU trade 'linked to 134,000 Scots jobs'
European Union trade routes are linked with 134,000 jobs in Scotland, according to new economic research…

The jobs in this latest Brexit assessment are reckoned to be dependent on trade.

It would be wrong to assume that they will disappear, just as it would be wrong to assume that a job supported by sales to other parts of the world will be more secure under future trading deals…

What the report shows is the starting point for a period of likely upheaval, in which the future trading relationships between Scotland and the rest of the UK, and much more so between the UK and the rest of the world, are re-aligned - perhaps radically so.

It's likely some sectors will suffer, and jobs will be lost. Others will grow…

We don't know any of this, because the shape of Brexit remains foggy. For now, most economists see the downside of this upheaval, or re-alignment of the British economy, being much more significant than any upsides…

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