The triumph of fiction
Logical thought as a handicap
Why Fiction Trumps Truth
Many people believe that truth conveys power. If some leaders, religions or ideologies misrepresent reality, they will eventually lose to more clearsighted rivals. Hence sticking with the truth is the best strategy for gaining power. Unfortunately, this is just a comforting myth. In fact, truth and power have a far more complicated relationship, because in human society, power means two very different things…
The dual nature of power and truth results in the curious fact that we humans know many more truths than any other animal, but we also believe in much more nonsense…
When it comes to uniting people around a common story, fiction actually enjoys three inherent advantages over the truth. First, whereas the truth is universal, fictions tend to be local…
The second huge advantage of fiction over truth has to do with the handicap principle, which says that reliable signals must be costly to the signaler. Otherwise, they can easily be faked by cheaters…
Third, and most important, the truth is often painful and disturbing. Hence if you stick to unalloyed reality, few people will follow you…
Some might argue that the long-term costs of believing fictional stories outweigh any short-term advantages in social cohesion. Once people get in the habit of believing absurd fictions and convenient falsehoods, this habit would spill into more and more areas, and they would consequently make bad economic decisions, adopt counterproductive military strategies and fail to develop effective technologies. While this occasionally happens, it is far from being a universal rule…
If you had traveled to Cairo or Istanbul around 400 years ago, you would have found a multicultural and tolerant metropolis where Sunnis, Shiites, Orthodox Christians, Catholics, Armenians, Copts, Jews and even the occasional Hindu lived side by side in relative harmony. Though they had their share of disagreements and riots — and though the Ottoman Empire routinely discriminated against people on religious grounds — it was a liberal paradise compared with Western Europe… And yet the Scientific Revolution began in London and Paris rather than in Cairo or Istanbul…
Even if we need to pay some price for deactivating our rational faculties, the advantages of increased social cohesion are often so big that fictional stories routinely triumph over the truth in human history. Scholars have known this for thousands of years, which is why scholars often had to decide whether they served the truth or social harmony. Should they aim to unite people by making sure everyone believes in the same fiction, or should they let people know the truth even at the price of disunity? Socrates chose the truth and was executed. The most powerful scholarly establishments in history — whether of Christian priests, Confucian mandarins or Communist ideologues — placed unity above truth. That’s why they were so powerful.
 |
| Harari |
Yuval Noah Harari (@harari_yuval) is an Israeli historian and the author of “Sapiens: A Brief History of Humankind.”
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Labels: analysis, logic
Iran: No Yoga
The morality police are again active. This one sounds like an act of private revenge.
Iran police arrest 30 at private yoga class
Thirty people taking part in a yoga session have been arrested during a private class in Iran, reports suggest, causing a buzz across the country's social media.
They were detained at a private residence in the northern city of Gorgan, where they were apparently taking part in a mixed class.
Local justice department official Massoud Soleimani said the instructor, who was also arrested, had no licence to run the class and had advertised the event on Instagram.
He also said that those taking part were wearing "inappropriate outfits" and had "behaved inappropriately", the Tasnim news agency reports.
The Islamic establishment in Iran does not allow any mixed-gender sports activities.
Professional-level yoga teaching is also banned in the country.
Mr Soleimani, the deputy chief of the Islamic Revolution Court in Gorgan which is the capital of Golestan Province, did not give any more details about the attire or behaviour of the detained group.
He did say that security forces had been monitoring the residence for some time before making the arrests…
In 2017, Iranian sports authorities issued a ban on Colombian dance aerobics exercise zumba and "any harmonious movement or body-shaking instruction".
Back then Iran's Sport for All Federation penned a letter to Iran's Ministry of Youth Affairs and Sports to ban activities, including zumba, for contravening "Islamic ideology".
While there have have been public gatherings of yoga fans in the country over the past few years, "underground" and "unIslamic" classes, which are promoted across social media, are frowned upon…
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Labels: civil liberties, Iran, political culture
More confusion in Commons
This makes Brexit seem even more insolvable.
Commons leader Andrea Leadsom quits government over Brexit
Commons Leader Andrea Leadsom has quit the cabinet, saying she no longer believes the government's approach will deliver Brexit.
Her resignation comes amid a backlash against Theresa May's Brexit plan from Conservative MPs…
[As Commons leader, she was in charge of organising government business and had been due to announce when the prime minister's Withdrawal Agreement Bill would be introduced to Parliament.]
Her resignation is the 36th by a minister under Theresa May - 21 of them over Brexit…
The move came after a day of drama at Westminster in which anger grew at the prime minister's attempt to win backing for the bill - the legislation needed to implement the agreement between the UK and EU on the terms of Brexit.
As part of it, Mrs May has offered a number of changes, including a chance for MPs to hold a vote on another referendum if they back the bill…
BBC political correspondent Jonathan Blake said… "It is an extraordinary sequence of events for a key member of the Cabinet to resign on the eve of elections.
"It is unlikely that we will see others follow her immediately, but getting into Friday and the weekend, things could move swiftly."…
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Labels: Brexit, Commons, leadership, politics, UK
Retirement
I've started teaching AP Comparative Government and Politics in 1986.
I'm retiring.
The books are out of print.
I'll do very few blog entries (although over 4500 entries online will still be around and indexed) (some are out of date).
I'm on to new adventures.
Hope things went well for you too.
Labels: retirement
Faith in the future
Is this optimism a good sign for China's future?
Young Chinese confident in national development goal: survey
A recent survey conducted by the China Youth Daily found that young Chinese have high confidence in building China into a great modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, culturally advanced, harmonious and beautiful by the middle of the century.
The survey had 10,393 participants from 31 provincial regions in China, among whom 67.4 percent were born in or after 1990…
The survey showed that those interviewed gave a ranking of 8.92 out of 10 on how confident they are in this national development goal, 50.8 percent even gave full marks of 10.
Respondents born in or after 2000 rated their confidence at 9.16 on average, the highest among all age groups. The young people living in rural areas rated their confidence at 9.04, higher than those in urban areas.
"Chinese people's confidence in the national development goal comes from their faith in the governing party, the development path we have taken, the guidance of Marxism and the fact that the Chinese people are always the masters of the nation and society," said Gong Yun, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
Labels: China, political culture, political socialization
AP Exam advice II
Voted the second best piece of advice I gave my students
Don't Panic!
(Thanks to Douglas Adams.)
Labels: exams
AP Exam advice
Voted the best advice I gave my students:
Read the Verbs
(and then do what you're asked to do)
Labels: exams
Would it work?
Would proportional voting in Scotland work to promote more efficient legislation as this former SMP suggests? Has it worked in Mexico?
Henry McLeish wants Holyrood's current voting system scrapped
A former first minister is calling for first past the post voting system used to elect most MSPs to be replaced with proportional representation (PR).
Henry McLeish, who was first minister between 2000 and 2001, told Good Morning Scotland he believes PR would force parties to work together…
He said said the first past the post element of the election should be scrapped and replaced, adding: "You could have a PR system that could retain the constituencies, but possibly have two members but elected on a different basis what that would do in my view is give you a parliament that would never have an overall majority…
Mr McLeish, who led a Labour-Lib Dem executive in the parliament's first session, said that Holyrood has barely come of age.
He added: "It's in its infancy... In the stock of things, Westminster has been on that site in some form for nearly 1,000 years - we're just on the foothills of building a new Scotland, a new parliament, so in that sense I think there is a great opportunity to reflect seriously and then look forward."
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Labels: concepts, electoral systems, proportional voting
Renovations for the House
The House of Commons is due for a major renovation. I'll bet that a new sprinkler system will be on the list of changes. But what to do with Parliament while the old place is updated?
Parliament refit: First images released of temporary Commons chamber
The first images have been released of the proposed temporary home for MPs during restoration work in Parliament.
Architects plan to recreate the current chamber of the House of Commons, including the green benches on which MPs sit, at a new venue in Westminster.
 |
| Proposed Commons recreation |
The move to Richmond House, the former home of the Department of Health, will not happen until 2025 at the earliest.
The refurbishment of the current Palace of Westminster, due to cost £4bn, will not now be completed until the 2030s.
The repair work is likely to take between five and eight years longer than previously anticipated…
The proposed temporary chamber will be similar to the current one, complete with leather benches and an adversarial layout, but will be more accessible…
The work is expected to include replacing old cabling, installing a new sewage system and improving disabled access to the estate.
Both the Commons and Lords agreed in early 2018 that the most cost-effective way to carry out the upgrades would be for them to move out whilst the works are being done…
A committee of MPs and peers will also be set up to scrutinise the spending plans alongside the Treasury.
Former Clerk of the Commons Lord Lisvane said work was needed urgently as it was "a matter of time" before something happened to the parliamentary estate.
"I'm afraid there has been a certain amount of foot-dragging and my message now would be emphatically, crack on with it," he told the BBC…
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Labels: history, political culture, politics, UK
How's he doing?
News about the Mexican presidency gets pushed off front pages by other news. Here's an evaluation by a BBC reporter.
Mexico's Amlo riding high 10 months after election
When Mexico's populist presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador was elected by a landslide in July, some analysts warned that he could quickly lose support once in office, especially if he failed to deliver on his ambitious promise of delivering a "radical transformation" of his country.
 |
| President López Obrado |
Four months after his swearing-in, his approval ratings range between 60% and 86% and are the envy of many other leaders in the hemisphere.
But how has the 65 year old commonly referred to as Amlo fared so far and what problems has he been able to tackle?
Just weeks into the top job, Amlo announced that he had launched an operation to fight widespread theft from oil pipelines, a nationwide problem costing the Mexican state about $3bn (£2.3bn) each year.
Besides deploying thousands of troops in the operation, his government also shut down major oil pipelines that criss-cross the country. Almost immediately, shortages of fuel in major cities were reported, causing massive queues at petrol stations.
Nevertheless, polls showed Mexicans supported the crackdown, and normal fuel supply has since been restored.
Official figures suggest the move has significantly reduced the amount of oil being illegally siphoned off daily, from 81,000 barrels in November of 2018 to 4,000 in the first months of 2019…
Amlo has sought an attitude of "peace and love" towards his northern neighbour despite recent public threats by Mr Trump that he would "close the border" with Mexico if the Mexican government failed to stop Central American migrants reaching the United States…
One area where President López Obrador has yet to make an impact is on Mexico's soaring murder rate. This reached a new annual record in 2018 with 28,839 violent homicides across the country, a 15% increase over 2017.
The murder rate has continued to climb since Amlo came to power. In the first quarter of 2019, 8,493 murders were reported, an increase of almost 10% compared with the same months in 2018, according to Mexican government data.
In a speech he gave on 11 March, Amlo acknowledged that "the population is currently in a defenceless state".
"Violence, as we have said many times, cannot be fought with violence (…), the construction of a better, more just and more humane society is the starting point of our public safety policy," he said.
In a move approved by Mexico's Congress, the president has created a new security agency, the National Guard, to enforce his strategy to reduce crime and violence related to Mexico's powerful drug cartels…
He travels around the country on commercial flights after putting Mexico's Dreamliner presidential plane up for sale arguing that it was too lavish for the leader of a country where millions live in extreme poverty.
On his first day in office he also ordered the presidential residence, Los Pinos, to be opened to the public and turned into a cultural centre.
Mr López Obrador and his family will continue to live at their middle-class home in Mexico City's Tlalpan neighbourhood until his youngest son finishes elementary school in mid-2019.
After that, they plan to move to a midsize apartment near his office at Mexico's National Palace, from where he says he will continue to work towards a "fourth transformation" in Mexico's history, following its 1810 independence, the 1854-1857 liberalising reforms led by then-President Benito Juárez, and the wars of the 1910-1920 Revolution.
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Labels: leadership, Mexico, politics
He's back…
It might not be a big deal in other places, but after Nigerian President Buhari's long absence for hospitalization, his recent return from London made headlines.
Buhari Returns to Abuja After 'Private Visit' to UK
President Muhammadu Buhari… returned to Abuja, after a 10-day 'private visit' to the United Kingdom…
 |
| Buhari |
A statement by his spokesperson, Femi Adesina, said some "reckless online media, irresponsible political opposition, and other bilious groups and individuals, had gone on overdrive since the President left the country on April 25, insinuating that he was going for hospitalization, and would not return after 10 days as stated."…
The presidency did not provide details of Mr Buhari's 'private visit,' leading to speculations he travelled to see his doctors as he has done in the past…
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Labels: leadership, Nigeria, politics
Youth culture in Nigeria
Rich urban "kids" in Nigeria
Lagos Style
On any night of the week in Lagos, you can find somewhere to party into the early hours.
Forget for a moment that Nigeria is a conservative country, where Christian evangelism is popular in the south, Islamic law in the north and homosexuality is illegal everywhere.
Lagos is Africa’s economic capital and home to 21 million people. It's also a creative hub for the country's liberal youth.
On a Friday, you may find the beach by the Hard Rock Cafe pulsating with electronic Afrobeats.
 |
| Lagos club night |
These types of club nights - where it's all about being yourself - are common across Lagos.
In Lagos, the wealthy flock to the glitzy clubs in the expensive district of Ikoyi.
"You need 200,000 naira ($550) for one night or you don't party," says Noble Igwe, a well-known party organiser.
“A Lagos club kid is just someone who can afford to buy a bottle [of champagne]. Anyone who can buy a bottle will be the king in that club for the night.”
Others create their own party scene, which is affordable, creative, and a way to meet like-minded people.
The parties are held across the divides of the city, from mainland neighbourhoods to the sprawling homes on the island. Details are passed from person to person on Instagram and WhatsApp, creating a grassroots buzz.
Music plays an important role. Clubs and parties hire DJs and "hype men" whose mixes set the mood…
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Labels: demographics, Nigeria, political culture
Local elections in the UK
The elections for local councils in England and Northern Ireland seem to have sent messages to the major parties. What messages did the Tories and Labour receive?
Local elections: Tories and Labour hit by Brexit backlash in polls
The Conservatives and Labour have faced a backlash at the ballot box over the Brexit deadlock, with smaller parties and independents winning seats.
In England so far, the Tories have lost more than 700 seats and 25 councils overall, while the Liberal Democrats have gained nearly 450 seats.
National politics seems to have been a deciding factor for voters, with Labour also losing almost more than 70 so far…
The Green Party has done well, adding more than 100 seats so far, but UKIP has lost ground, with 80 fewer councillors at this stage than in 2015. Meanwhile, the number of independent councillors is up by more than 300…
While local elections give voters the chance to choose the decision-makers who affect their communities, the national issue loomed large on the doorstep…
Theresa May, appearing at the Welsh Conservative conference, said voters had sent the "simple message" that her party and Labour had to "get on" with delivering Brexit.
Speaking in Greater Manchester, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn said he "wanted to do better" and conceded voters who disagreed with its backing for Brexit had deserted the party.
But Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable, in Chelmsford Essex, where his party took control of the council, said it had been a "brilliant" result and that "every vote for the Liberal Democrats is a vote for stopping Brexit".
Polling expert Prof Sir John Curtice said the days of the Conservatives and Labour dominating the electoral landscape, as happened in the 2017 election, when they won 80% of the vote between them, "may be over"…
Prof Curtice said there was a North/South divide emerging in the losses too, with the Conservatives shedding more seats in the South - especially in areas that voted Remain - and Labour losing more in the North.
Green Party co-leader Sian Berry said she was confident her party would end the day with a "record number of councillors on a record number of councils".
She told BBC Breakfast the Greens were not simply benefiting from a protest vote over Brexit and their gains reflected "huge new concerns" about climate change as well as the strength of their local campaigning on a range of issues.
UKIP is down by more than 60 seats on its 2015 performance…
Of the 248 elections in England, 168 have been district councils which are in charge of setting and collecting council tax, bin collections, local planning and council housing.
There were also elections taking place for 47 unitary authorities and 33 metropolitan boroughs which look after education, public transport, policing and fire services, as well as all the services of district councils.
In Northern Ireland, councils are responsible for services including local planning and licensing, waste collection and enforcing safety regulations to do with food, workplaces and the environment.
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Labels: elections, parties, politics, UK
Terrorists in northern Nigeria strike again
Terrorists hit another area of northern Nigeria.
Gunmen kill 14 villagers in northern Nigeria
Dozens of gunmen attacked two villages in Katsina state, north-western Nigeria and killed 14 villagers, a politician and local police say.
The politician, who represents the area in the state's parliament, Abdul Jalal Haruna Runka, told the BBC the attackers on motorbikes went on the rampage in the villages on Tuesday evening shooting people and burning houses.
Many people were also injured in Gobirawa and Sabawa villages.
This is the second time in a week that gunmen attacked the area killing several people and injuring others.
There's growing concern in northern Nigeria over the level of banditry and kidnapping in the states of Zamfara, Katsina and Kaduna.
The states have long faced problems with armed groups stealing cattle, kidnapping for ransom and attacking communities, which has in turn prompted some local people to form vigilante gangs.
The Nigerian government has deployed troops to the region but that has yet to bring the violence to an end.
Police say gunmen have kidnapped a traditional ruler in Daura who is distantly related to Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari.
Musa
Umar was seized on
Wednesday evening from in front of his house by abductors who fired
shots into the air, Katsina state Police Spokesman Gambo Isa told the
BBC's Nasidi Adamu Yahya.
Local police say one officer who was injured in a confrontation with the kidnappers is receiving treatment at a local hospital.
Mr
Umar is a distant relative by marriage of President Buhari, as well as
being the father-in-law of one of his senior aides. Daura is the
president's home town.
The
BBC's Joshua Ajayi in Lagos says the kidnapping is an embarrassment to
the president, as it shows that just about anyone can be abducted.
The president's office has not yet commented on the incident.
Kidnappings, often for ransom, are on the rise in north-western Nigeria.
On Tuesday, dozens of gunmen attacked two villages in the same state and killed 14 people.
The
Nigerian government has repeatedly claimed it is tackling the problem
by deploying troops to the region but that has yet to bring the violence
to an end.
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Labels: cleavages, Nigeria, terrorism
What is not allowed in Iran
Clerical influence in Iran spreads more widely.
Tehran bans dog walking in public spaces
Iran's capital city has banned the public from walking pet dogs, as part of a long-standing official campaign to discourage dog-ownership…
As if this were not draconian enough, Brigadier-General Rahimi added that driving with a dog in your car was also banned…
Owning dogs as pets, and walking them in public, has been contentious ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Iran, and owners have sometimes had their dogs confiscated.
Dogs are viewed as "unclean" by Iran's Islamic authorities, who also regard dog-ownership as a symbol of the pro-Western policy of the ousted monarchy…
Iran TV pulls game shows amid religious gambling row
Iranian state TV has temporarily banned the country's equivalent of "Who Wants to a Millionaire" after complaints by senior clerics and conservatives.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that game-shows endanger the "culture of hard work and productivity" that the country seeks to encourage.
Now a senior Shia cleric has issued a fatwa (an Islamic religious ruling) against shows like "Be a Winner" that offer cash prizes.
Gambling is banned under Islamic law…
The show, hosted by actor and model Mohammad Reza Golzar, gives contestants the chance to win up to 1bn Iranian rials (about $25,000) and allows audiences to win money by participating at home via an app…
 |
| Mohammad Reza Golzar |
Buffalo bottoms prove too much for Iranian TV censors
You might expect Iran's state broadcaster to remove images of women eating cucumbers on television - but the backsides of buffaloes and the outlines of ears under headscarves?
Censors in the conservative Islamic republic have banned these from screens over the years and exasperated TV production staff are now taking to social media to laugh about them.
TV writer Amir Mehdi Jule kicked off a campaign on Instagram with the hashtag #Censorship_and_I, talking about the challenges of depicting women's bodies.
"One of the problems of displaying women on television, in addition to the [need for them to wear a] headscarf… is the perception or illusion of the size of their body parts underneath their clothes," he said.
But he never expected feedback asking him to pay attention to the size and shape of women's ears. "We never realised that an ear covered by a headscarf could be provocative," he said…
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Labels: Iran, political culture
Complicated politics in the UK
Will Brexit lead to UKBreakup?
Brexit drives support for Scottish independence to 49 percent
Support for Scottish independence has risen to its highest point in the past four years, largely driven by voters who want to remain in the European Union…
As the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) meets for its spring conference, the YouGov poll showed support for secession from the United Kingdom had risen to 49 percent from 45 percent at the last YouGov poll carried out for The Times in June 2018.
Scots rejected independence by 45-55 percent in a 2014 referendum. Then the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union in a 2016 referendum, but among its four nations Scotland and Northern Ireland voted to stay, feeding political tension.
Britain is mired in political chaos and it is still unclear when or even if it will leave the EU.
YouGov also found that 53 percent of Scots thought there should not be another referendum on independence within the next five years…
The poll also showed voters moving away from both the Conservatives and the Labour Party north of the English border…
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Labels: cleavages, nation, politics, UK
