Political realities in Britain
When Tory leader David Cameron called for a snap election just before the Conservative Party conference, I wondered what he knew that the rest of us were blithely ignorant of. Is this what David Cameron knew? This article is from The Guardian (UK).Brown faces lonely decision after week the tide turned
"Days ago the Tories were on the rack and a snap poll seemed a near certainty. Now the PM must make his toughest choice...
"Tomorrow the prime minister will retire to his study, armed with new polling and a telephone, to read the electoral runes, consult colleagues, and ultimately reach the toughest decision of his career: whether to call an autumn election after little more than 100 days in power.
"Labour's reversal in fortunes, revealed in the Guardian/ICM poll which yesterday placed his party neck-and-neck with the Tories on 38 points each, has prompted wobbling among MPs in marginal seats; most observers assume an autumn election is now less likely than it was a week ago. But Mr Brown's staff and cabinet colleagues insist he is genuinely undecided...
"[A week ago] there was a growing belief among senior Labour figures that a November election was both inevitable and right. Polls gave Labour a lead of anywhere between six and 11 points over a Tory party that was still recovering from the rows of the summer, pummelled by the Brown bounce and wrongfooted by the PM's wooing of Middle England. Labour's conference in Brighton was "the most unified I've ever seen", one cabinet minister said...
"In interviews with the Sunday newspapers, David Cameron set the tone by urging Mr Brown to 'stop dithering' over an election, while George Osborne began laying out policy pledges on stamp duty and tax support for married couples.
"But the jewel for the Conservatives came on Tuesday, in the shadow chancellor's speech. The commitment to raise the threshold of inheritance tax from £300,000 to £1m was that rarity in modern politics; an announcement that was not leaked beforehand, and that took both the conference, and Labour, by surprise...
"What went wrong?
"Election speculation: By allowing talk of an early election, Gordon Brown hoped to put the spotlight on himself and pressure on the Tories. Labour expected a Tory bloodbath as the party woke up to the prospect of defeat. Instead it panicked the opposition into public and private unity.
"George Osborne's speech: The Brown camp comfort themselves that Tory tax plans do not seem to add up and think voters will see through them. But for now the shadow chancellor's trick of promising cuts to inheritance tax and stamp duty - and a tax on rich foreigners - is massively popular.
"Botched visit to Iraq: Mr Brown's fly-in, fly-out trip to Basra and Baghdad backfired terribly...
"David Cameron's speech: The Tory leader broke through public scepticism about his character by speaking for an hour without notes - a fact that was important as anything he said..."
See also:
- Labour lead down to three points in UK
- Early election plans in doubt
- Real Contest in UK
- Tough times ahead for UK economy
- Gordon Brown
- A Gordon Brown Show
- Travails of the opposition
- New Politics in Britain
Labels: economics, parties, politics, UK
posted by Ken Wedding @ 8:11 AM
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