Teaching Comparative

When a leader ails

Or when people think he's ailing. A Nigerian political problem that is only secondarily ethnic or religious.

This op-ed piece was written by Ian Bremmer, President of Eurasia Group and a Senior Fellow at the World Policy Institute.

Nigeria’s Sick Man Democracy

"How sick is Nigerian president Umaru Yar’Adua? In May, he admitted during a live television broadcast that he suffers from a kidney ailment, but sought to quell rumors that he was terminally ill by insisting that fears for his health are greatly exaggerated and politically motivated...

"With the fall of Nigeria’s dictatorship and the introduction of democracy in 1999, governors in the mainly Muslim northern provinces believed they had struck a deal with their southern counterparts on a regional rotation of the country’s presidency...

"Obasanjo found a compromise: he named a man he trusted, Yar’Adua, a little-known northern governor and devout Muslim, as his preferred successor...

"With so many challenges ahead, Nigeria can ill afford an ailing president. Yar’Adua insists that he’s fine and that his trips to Germany for medical treatment, during the election campaign last year and again this April, have been unfairly politicized... The true state of his health may matter less than public fears that he’s hiding something.

"Yar’Adua’s health worries are creating risks to Nigeria’s stability that run far beyond questions about the Niger Delta or any single political issue. If Yar’Adua were to die in office, his vice president would succeed him – returning the presidency to a southern Christian. Nigeria’s northern Muslims are highly unlikely to accept that result without protest...

"Only Umaru Yar’Adua’s doctors know for sure how sick he is. But as answers begin to emerge, we will learn much more about the health of Nigeria’s fragile democracy."

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Labels: leadership, Nigeria, politics

posted by Ken Wedding @ 6:08 AM