Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Friday, March 18, 2011

Election update

Most of the Nigerian press gives the impression that there's only one election and only one likely winner in this spring's election season. Reporters for The Economist offer more details and an important first paragraph reminder.

Can your students trace the roots of the three parties mentioned in the article?

A three-way contest

IN LESS than a month Nigeria will hold elections that may be the most unpredictable since military rule ended in 1999. Voting for president, parliament and state governors will take place on three successive Saturdays, starting on April 2nd. Personality and the power of patronage, rather than policies, will decide the winners.

In normal circumstances Goodluck Jonathan, the candidate of the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP), would be expected to win easily. The PDP has won every presidential poll since the army bowed out. Nigerian elections favour the incumbent, who has access to the state’s vast oil revenues and can dish out cash, contracts and appointments. Mr Jonathan, a former vice-president who took over last May when Umaru Yar’Adua died, also won the financial backing last month of some big bankers and telecoms tycoons.

But Mr Jonathan, an unassuming zoologist who hails from the oil-rich southern delta, owes his rise more to luck than design. Moreover, he has flouted the PDP’s so-called zoning pact, whereby the candidacy for president rotates every two terms between the largely Christian south and the mostly Muslim north. The PDP now faces a struggle to woo the northern electorate, which makes up over half of the country’s 73.5m registered voters. Opposition candidates are thus gearing up for what they see as their first chance in a proper race. Two frugal northerners present a contrast—and hope to pose a threat—to the president.

Mr Jonathan’s main challenger is Muhammadu Buhari, a former military ruler, who is running with the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC)…

The former dictator says he is a convert to democracy. “I don’t believe [anything else] is acceptable any more to ordinary people,” he says… He has chosen Tunde Bakare, a southern Pentecostal pastor and pro-democracy activist, as his running mate. General Buhari’s tough stance on graft is winning him support, especially among poor northerners…

Mr Jonathan’s other rival is Nuhu Ribadu, a northerner who used to run the country’s anti-graft agency. He is running with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), which controls Lagos, the vibrant commercial capital. Mr Ribadu, the youngest of the three main candidates, and his running mate, Fola Adeola, a southern banker and philanthropist, are the progressive choice… Their main support is among Nigeria’s small middle class.

Since the PDP is so dominant, Mr Jonathan is still the favourite to win. Some predict a run-off against General Buhari. But the ruling party faces a tougher battle to keep control of the 27 states it runs out of Nigeria’s total of 36… Indeed, he may find it easier to win than to rule.

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Labels: elections, Nigeria, parties, politics