A view of Nigerian politics now
The Economist editors offer some predictions about Nigerian politics. Ask your students next year to read it and evaluate the predictions. They can also evaluate the performance of President Jonathan by analyzing at his inauguration speech (you'll probably want them to read the whole thing: Sahel Blog offers a video and the text).A man and a morass
Once again, Nigerians are hoping to see the back of their ruling elite. Goodluck Jonathan, the president, wafts along on a wave of personal goodwill and is mostly seen as benign. It is the men and women around him whom voters blame for Nigeria’s woes.
With Mr Jonathan’s inauguration on May 29th, and the formation of a new government, many expect a turnaround. Two-thirds of Nigerians think the election will change their lives…
The buoyant mood extends to the boardrooms and watering holes of Lagos, the business capital…
Though widely shared, that sentiment has not silenced the general dissatisfaction. If anything, it has grown louder as reform plans take shape and the rascal ways of the political class are unmistakably identified as the main reason for the lack of prosperity. The economy may be growing by 7% a year, but this feeds mostly the greedy mouths closest to government troughs. The speaker of the lower house of parliament was investigated this month for “misappropriating” $140m. Meanwhile, about 70% of Nigerians live on less than $2 a day.
The problem is not simply one of embezzlement and bribery. The entire state machinery exists to siphon off cash… A universe of red tape engulfs the economy… Senseless restrictions and arcane procedures abound… Massive economic failure is the result. Employment in industry has shrunk by 90% in the past decade…
Nigeria is the leading oil producer in Africa, with a revenue stream of about $40 billion a year. The effect of this wealth is mostly corrosive. “Nigerian politics is one big bun-fight over oil money,” says Antony Goldman, a consultant. Three-quarters of the government budget goes toward recurrent expenditure, including salaries. Parliamentarians are paid up to $2m a year—legally. Very little is invested in infrastructure. State governors all receive big slices of the oil pie. This has attracted some very shady characters into politics…
More than two-thirds of Nigerians are still subsistence farmers. The majority, many of them Muslims, live far away from the coast. Incomes per head in the north are 50% lower than in the Christian south, and falling. Literacy rates in the north-east are two-thirds lower than in Lagos…
It is no surprise that extremists thrive in this climate. Boko Haram, a local terror group, is roaming ever wider and fine-tuning its methods…
The two biggest beneficiaries of financial reforms would be agriculture and electricity. Farmers desperately need help. In 1997 they received 17% of total lending; today they get 1.4%. Once West Africa’s breadbasket, Nigeria can no longer feed itself. Last year it spent $1 billion on importing rice—ten-year-old rice from Indian grain reserves—while close to 40% of its own harvest rotted, mostly for lack of roads to markets and processing plants.
Infrastructure is key. And the single biggest impediment to building it is Nigeria’s negligible power supply. The situation is grotesque. MTN, a mobile-phone company, has masts all over the country, as it does in South Africa, where the power supply is better. Operating costs are three times lower there. In Nigeria MTN must equip each mast with a generator, a back-up generator, a fuel tank, guards to protect the fuel and a lorry to deliver it…
Reform will be worth little, however, if state corruption is not tackled. That needs institutional change. In the view of many Nigerians, high officials should lose their immunity; legislators’ salaries should be cut, so as not to attract cowboys; and the publication of all government accounts would be a good idea. Parliamentarians, of course, disagree. A constitutional convention may be needed to push through the trickiest reforms…
Power in Nigeria is exerted by groups, not individuals. The country is too big for one man to rule. Even military leaders two decades ago chose to share power with a clique. A system of ethnic and regional quotas has developed. Jobs in all institutions are apportioned. Each of Nigeria’s 36 state governments, for example, proposes one cabinet minister. Loyalty in cabinet is rarely to the president, but to the godfather who picked the minister—and now expects a share of the loot.
To change the system, Mr Jonathan would have to break with his backers. That is difficult, perhaps even dangerous. For instance, a mafia that embezzles vast fuel subsidies is said to be a big contributor to his campaign…
Which way Mr Jonathan will lean in the next four years should become clear soon. In early June he will unveil his new team. If he is going to defy the godfathers, this is the time to do it. The head of police, the customs chief, the chief justice, the main anti-corruption investigator—will they be partisan stooges, or men who put the country first?
And guess what President Jonathan promises? The Daily Champion reports:
Jonathan Vows to Transform the Country
President Goodluck Jonathan yesterday took oath of office with a vow to transform Nigeria. He promised not to let the people down.
The President while speaking after he was sworn in… listed the task before his administration to include that of transformation of the economy, maintenance of security and a better image for the country.
"You have entrusted me with your mandate and I will never let you down. I know your pains because I have been there; look beyond the hardship you have endured and see a new beginning, a new direction, a new spirit. Nigerians I want you to start to dream again, what you see in your dreams we can achieve together. I call upon all the Presidential candidates who contested with me to join hands with us as we begin the transformation of our country. Let us work together"…
He also acknowledged the challenges of driving reforms and healing wounds and rifts generated by the fierce election contests which saw mass protests and killing at least 10 members of the National Youth Service Commission (NYSC) and other Nigerians…
The President however advised Nigerians to put the era of lamentations behind them and forgive one another and embrace the new era that will be characterized by hard work and diligence…
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Labels: leadership, Nigeria, politics
posted by Ken Wedding @ 7:18 AM
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