Reconstruction in Nigeria
Creating a federal system in Nigeria has been a delicate issue since independence. It's come up again.
Nigeria’s Election Is Shattering Political Taboos
On Feb. 16, Nigerians [went] to the polls for a presidential election. At stake [was] not only who will be president but also fundamental issues about the structure of the Nigerian state and relations between its constituent units. Who should control the country’s oil resources and security forces? In which areas should the federal and state governments have preeminence over each other? These previously taboo questions have been elevated as key topics on the national political agenda. Regardless of who wins, President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress and his main opposition rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, have opened the door to political forces they cannot control or stop.
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| Buhari (left) and Atiku Abubakar (right) |
At first glance Buhari and Atiku (as he is known in Nigeria) appear to be opposites. Buhari is austere, tough on corruption, and lacking in flair…
Atiku is a gregarious multibillionaire businessman and veteran politician who is seen as business-savvy and has promised economic liberalization, but he has been dogged by corruption allegations. It seems that voters can have a fight against corruption or economic stimulus, but not both. But there is a third and more serious issue bubbling beneath the surface…
Since both men are ethnic Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria, neither can resort to pandering based on ethno-regional or religious sentiment to take votes away from the other, as is frequently the case in Nigerian elections…
For the past 20 years since Nigeria returned to democracy, the country has been stuck with a highly centralized federal structure bequeathed to it by past military governments.
This structure gives the federal government huge power over states, control of the country’s oil deposits and security forces, and the power to declare a state of emergency in any state whether or not that state consents. Rather than being reservoirs for local interests, Nigeria’s states are consequently little more than conduits for the implementation of federal government policies.
Atiku has described Nigeria’s current political system as “unworkable” and has advocated “devolution of powers and resources to states and local governments” and greater autonomy for states. To combat the insecurity that has led to the military being deployed in at least 32 of Nigeria’s 36 states, he also supports allowing Nigeria’s states to form their own police forces to reinforce Nigeria’s currently federally-controlled military and police forces. Buhari [a former military ruler] is a conservative and has rejected a political restructuring of Nigeria.
Such proposals will reverberate at both ends of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring Nigeria’s unusual federal system has been a big talking point for the last three decades. However, regional autonomy is a potentially explosive issue in a country that fought a civil war from 1967 to 1970 and sacrificed over 1 million of its citizens to prevent one of its southern regions from seceding, and in which just three of the country’s 36 states today produce 75 percent of the country’s oil and over 50 percent of government revenues.
Atiku’s proposals will delight many younger and southern Nigerians who have campaigned for such measures for three decades, hoping that it will allow Nigeria’s oil-producing states to have a greater say over and share of the profits from the oil drilled from their lands…
Historically, many northerners feared that such changes to Nigeria’s constitutional order would reduce the poorer northern states’ share of lucrative revenues from the oil fields in Nigeria’s south. The chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, Ango Abdullahi, claimed that some have “personalized restructuring with a view to targeting a section of the country, and this is the area that we feel very sensitive about, and we will resist it.”
Yet the north also has its own reasons to support Atiku’s restructuring ideas. Many complain that Nigeria’s police and soldiers (who are recruited from all over the country under a quota system) are disadvantaged in their fight against the militants of Boko Haram because most of them are not from the northeast where the insurgency emerged, are not familiar with the terrain, and don’t speak the local Kanuri language of the region, thereby making it difficult for them to win the trust of locals and obtain intelligence from them. Some argue that troops should be locals with knowledge of the local language, terrain, and customs…
Some of the military’s successes against Boko Haram have been due to the assistance given to them by a militia of local volunteers called the Civilian Joint Task Force. Using their local knowledge, the group has provided vital intelligence to the military, set up security checkpoints, arrested or executed Boko Haram members, and even assisted the military during raids. Twelve states in Nigeria’s north operate under sharia. Some of these states created enforcement corps known as Hisbah to police their legal code. Several years ago, some southern states also allowed vigilante groups to apprehend armed robbers…
[L]ocal ethno-cultural and religious differences demonstrate the challenges of allowing local communities to create their own security forces. In one part of the country they may be used to fight insurgents, to enforce a theocracy in another, or as political thugs in another. In a country with deep sectarian cleavages such as Nigeria, legislating different legal regimes for these groups would be impossible without accusations of ethnic, geographic, or religious bias. Thanks to Buhari and Atiku’s candor, these are no longer academic debates but immediate real-life problems that Nigeria’s next government must confront.
If Buhari holds on to power, he will be under pressure to respond to these thorny issues. If Atiku wins, the electorate will expect him to deliver on his campaign promises. Even if neither man intends to touch the restructuring time bomb, the issues they have raised are likely to be picked up by whoever contests the next election…
In Nigeria, younger politicians are far more likely than their conservative elders to implement massive reforms. No matter what Buhari and Atiku do, a southern successor is far more likely than them to push for radical changes to Nigeria’s structure. And that means four years from now Nigeria may have a president with the motivation to not only espouse reforms, but implement them, too.
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Labels: election, federalism, leaders, Nigeria, politics
Single party politics in the UK?
The speculation is this analysis from
The Washington Post suggests that the coming election might signal the death of the Labour Party.
After hard-left turn under Jeremy Corbyn, Britain’s Labour Party on course for historic defeat
In 2015, Britain’s Labour Party tacked to the left, repudiating the middle-way philosophy that had won it three elections under Tony Blair. Voters responded by handing the party its worst defeat in three decades.
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| Corbyn |
Rather than scramble back toward the center, Labour lurched further left. The party elected as its leader Jeremy Corbyn, a white-bearded baby boomer from the back benches who, like Bernie Sanders in the United States, ignited an improbable movement among young activists…
Now, with less than six weeks to go before Britain votes once more, the Corbyn-led Labour Party is on course for an electoral beatdown so broad and deep it would make the drubbing the party took in 2015 look like a triumph.
The ruling Conservative Party has a double-digit lead over Labour in pre-election polls…
Corbyn may have captured the hearts of left-wing true believers. But unless something dramatic changes before June 8, when Britain votes, that’s not enough to win a national election…
“Labour is the party of the industrial proletariat — that was its original function. But Britain doesn’t have an industrial proletariat anymore,” Martin Baxter, a political analyst who runs Britain’s Electoral Calculus website said of a party that traces its roots to 1900 and the workers’ rights movements of factory-saturated northern England. “So there’s a big question as to what the Labour Party is for.”…
To his enthusiastic backers — who delivered the north London lawmaker a pair of landslide victories in party leadership races — Corbyn’s prescription for Britain is exactly what the country needs.
“I love him — best leader ever,” said Richard Crook, a 57-year-old telephone engineer from southeast London who cheered Corbyn on at the lawmaker’s campaign kickoff. “We’ve all had enough of PR politics. We want the truth…"
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| May |
But there’s no getting around the fact that the polls for Labour are dire. The Tories now have a working majority of 17 in the 650-member House of Commons. Projections — which no doubt influenced May’s decision to call the snap vote — show that could widen to 150 or more.
The gains are forecast across the U.K.
In Wales, where the Conservatives haven’t won in nearly a century, a recent survey showed them leading. In Scotland, where Labour ran a virtual one-party fiefdom until the 2015 vote, the party is now a distant third…
If Labour does lose in a rout, Corbyn may be forced to resign as party leader. The party could also split apart.
Whether that happens or not, the center-left the world over will have to work out what it stands for and stop re-litigating internal battles that date back decades, said Stewart Wood, a Labour member of the House of Lords…
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Labels: elections, leaders, parties, politics, UK
Politics of illness
The president is out of the country for medical reasons. Will politics be more dangerous than disease?
Nigeria's President Buhari extends medical leave in UK
Nigeria's President Muhammadu Buhari has asked the parliament to extend his medical leave in the UK, amid concerns that his health may be worse than officials are publicly saying…
An official statement said he had been advised by doctors to await the results of a series of tests…
Analysts say that Mr Buhari's extended absence could further erode confidence in his administration which is already under pressure due to a weak economy and the conflict with Boko Haram Islamist militants in the north-east of the country…
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Labels: leaders, Nigeria, politics
Textbook addendum
Here are a couple paragraphs I added to my
"Corrections and Updates" page. Your students could add them to their textbooks.
Brexit and May
In the spring of 2016, Prime Minister David Cameron was facing the disintegration of his Parliamentary majority and his government. The demand for Britain's withdrawal from the EU had become irresistible. Even members of the government, when given permission to disagree with the official line, had joined the Brexit (Britain exit) campaign.
Cameron called for a referendum on the issue, assuming that people would not vote to leave the EU. Trade, travel, and occupational opportunities were too great, he assumed.
Boy, was he wrong. Just over half of British voters favored Brexit in the referendum. He resigned.
After a short intra-party campaign, Theresa May was elected leader of the Conservative Party and became the second woman to be Prime Minister of the UK. She had campaigned against Brexit, but promised to carry out the will of the people in ways that didn't hurt the country. During the summer of 2016, she made the rounds of EU prime ministers and presidents (most importantly Germany and France), to discuss how best to end Britain's EU membership while maintaining the trade, travel, and immigration advantages.
Prime Minister May and many observers suggested that no one should expect formal action of the UK's withdrawal from the EU until 2017.
Labels: EU, leaders, politics, UK
Words, hope, and actions
I've been paying attention to government and politics in Nigeria for over 50 years. My early optimism was created by a college acquaintance and by a US State Department bulletin extolling the potential of the new nation in the early 1960s.
Since then my attitude has been shaped, mis-shaped, distorted, and corrected by events and people. Sometimes all my hopes for Nigeria were dashed. Sometimes my optimism was restored.
In spite of the
omen of the '93 election, the recent election makes me more hopeful that Nigeria's democratic political culture can become more effective. And President Buhari's speech adds to my hopes. The old disciplinarian has a good speech writer, good advisers, and the good sense to give the speech they produced for him. Of course, words are just words. Behavior and policies will be even more telling.
Nigerian President-Elect Muhammadu Buhari Sets Out His Agenda
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| Buhari |
Nigeria’s president-elect, Muhammadu Buhari, did not smile while making his acceptance speech on Wednesday — understandably, as terrorism and corruption were his main talking points.
A day after piling up substantial vote totals against the incumbent president, Mr. Buhari, a former general who once rose to power in a military coup, further consolidated something extraordinary for Nigeria: the peaceful passing of power from one political party to another through the ballot box.
The country is now a democratic nation like others, Mr. Buhari suggested Wednesday…
But in his remarks in the Nigerian capital, Abuja, Mr. Buhari also bluntly enumerated two scourges in this giant democracy: the ruthless onslaught of the Boko Haram militant group and the “evil of corruption,” as he put it…
On Wednesday, he focused more on the challenges posed by corruption than on the dangers of Boko Haram, perhaps indicating a veteran soldier’s disdain for the group as a true military threat…
He made it clear that, falling oil prices aside, he sees [corruption] as the country’s top economic problem, telling the audience at Abuja’s International Conference Center that “such an illegal yet powerful force soon comes to undermine democracy.” He promised to “end this threat to our economic development and democratic survival.”…
Of course, other Nigerian politicians have promised to end corruption, only to fail or even steal with abandon afterward. But there is some reason to think Mr. Buhari may hew more closely to his promises. As military ruler in 1984 and 1985, he did not enrich himself. And he ruthlessly pursued those whom he accused of corruption.
“Corruption will not be tolerated by this administration, and it shall no longer be allowed to stand as if it is a respected monument in this nation,” he said Wednesday.
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Labels: corruption, leaders, Nigeria, political culture, politics
But foreigners can't vote
Gorbachev was very popular in Europe and the US, but he wasn't well liked in the USSR. Today, some Russian legislators want to investigate him for treason.
Mexico's president isn't being accused of betraying the country, but he's more popular outside of Mexico than he is in the country. What kind of crazy politics are going on? Is this the PRI's last gasp?
Mexico’s President Enrique Peña Nieto slumps in polls despite policy wins
[F]or all the praise he has won in Washington and elsewhere in the world, Peña Nieto’s opening act is getting panned in the only place it really counts: Mexico…
Peña Nieto’s approval ratings have fallen fairly steadily since he took office in December 2012, dropping to 37 percent in one recent poll, with other surveys rating him in the mid-40s.
The biggest problem, analysts say, has been Mexico’s feeble growth…
His most widely touted move, a constitutional amendment opening Mexico’s state-controlled energy sector to private and foreign investment, was advertised as a catalyst for faster growth. But it may take years for the benefits to materialize.
According to Mexican economist Luis de la Calle, a bold legislative agenda doesn’t tend to favor short-term success…
Peña Nieto’s attempts at overhauling Mexico’s institutions have made him powerful enemies. He has challenged mega-billionaire Carlos Slim’s near- monopoly on Mexican telecom and tossed the once-feared teachers union boss, Elba Ester Gordillo, in jail on corruption charges.
Such moves won’t result in immediate, tangible benefits for ordinary Mexicans.
They have, however, made a splash in foreign capitals, where Peña Nieto has spent a lot of time trying to turn around negative perceptions of Mexico as chaotic, corrupt and dominated by drug traffickers. He has traveled to China and other Asian countries to drum up business, sought to repair strained relations with France and met frequently with President Obama, promoting his “reform” agenda at every stop.
Yet the changes that earn Peña Nieto applause at global policy forums are getting booed back home…
The most likely beneficiary would be the leftist Democratic Revolutionary Party and the breakaway party Morena, headed by former presidential candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador… Those parties could make it tougher for Peña Nieto to get subsequent legislation approved.
And while Peña Nieto’s low-key style hasn’t made him many personal enemies, he represents a political party with a spotty past from the 72 years it controlled the Mexican government prior to Fox’s win in 2000…
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Labels: leaders, Mexico, parties, policy, politics
Tribes and chiefs in the UK
The latest political poll in the UK (commissioned by the BBC) doesn't offer much solace to political leaders, to the smaller coalition partner, or to the loyal opposition.
This analysis was done by Adam Fleming of the BBC.
Poll shows what voters really think about politicians
Apart from the - admittedly very fun - personality stuff, the poll also found that a majority of people trust David Cameron and George Osborne to manage the economy over Ed Miliband and Ed Balls.
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| Worried leaders. Can you name them? |
Of those polled, 58% opted for the Tories and 42% favoured Labour as stewards of the nation's finances.
But this is not your common-or-garden opinion poll. The Daily Politics and the World At One have been given access to the unique model being used by Populus.
It is a departure from traditional methods which use measures like age, class, or income to carve up the electorate.
Instead it divides the country into six segments, based on attitude and worldview:
- Comfortable nostalgia: voters who are unhappy with modern Britain
- Optimistic contentment: happy, secure people
- Calm persistence: hard-workers feeling the pinch
- Hard-pressed anxiety: voters who are stressed about life
- Long-term despair: those who feel left out
- Cosmopolitan critics: voters who would criticise the government whoever was in power
Populus found that David Cameron is perceived more positively by the people who feel most secure…
Voters who worry about the future are more likely to say the prime minister is "arrogant" or "out of touch".
55% of the long-term despair category and 66% of the hard-pressed anxiety group said they would prefer Labour to manage the nation's finances.
But all groups - apart from cosmopolitan critics - used words like "weak" or "out of his depth" to describe the Labour leader, Ed Miliband…
"Nick Clegg comes out of it pretty badly across the board. His most popular adjectives are out of touch, weak, out of his depth and that really doesn't change across the segments," says Rick Nye, managing director of Populus…
To my eyes, two big things stand out.
Firstly, voters tend to choose very negative words to describe politicians...
Secondly, the gap between the Conservatives and Labour on the issue of the economy is narrowest among the Calm Persistence group, which is the biggest segment of the electorate.
It suggests this group is where the next election will be won or lost.
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Labels: leaders, politics, UK
