Reconstruction in Nigeria
Creating a federal system in Nigeria has been a delicate issue since independence. It's come up again.
Nigeria’s Election Is Shattering Political Taboos
On Feb. 16, Nigerians [went] to the polls for a presidential election. At stake [was] not only who will be president but also fundamental issues about the structure of the Nigerian state and relations between its constituent units. Who should control the country’s oil resources and security forces? In which areas should the federal and state governments have preeminence over each other? These previously taboo questions have been elevated as key topics on the national political agenda. Regardless of who wins, President Muhammadu Buhari of the ruling All Progressives Congress and his main opposition rival, Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party, have opened the door to political forces they cannot control or stop.
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| Buhari (left) and Atiku Abubakar (right) |
At first glance Buhari and Atiku (as he is known in Nigeria) appear to be opposites. Buhari is austere, tough on corruption, and lacking in flair…
Atiku is a gregarious multibillionaire businessman and veteran politician who is seen as business-savvy and has promised economic liberalization, but he has been dogged by corruption allegations. It seems that voters can have a fight against corruption or economic stimulus, but not both. But there is a third and more serious issue bubbling beneath the surface…
Since both men are ethnic Fulani Muslims from northern Nigeria, neither can resort to pandering based on ethno-regional or religious sentiment to take votes away from the other, as is frequently the case in Nigerian elections…
For the past 20 years since Nigeria returned to democracy, the country has been stuck with a highly centralized federal structure bequeathed to it by past military governments.
This structure gives the federal government huge power over states, control of the country’s oil deposits and security forces, and the power to declare a state of emergency in any state whether or not that state consents. Rather than being reservoirs for local interests, Nigeria’s states are consequently little more than conduits for the implementation of federal government policies.
Atiku has described Nigeria’s current political system as “unworkable” and has advocated “devolution of powers and resources to states and local governments” and greater autonomy for states. To combat the insecurity that has led to the military being deployed in at least 32 of Nigeria’s 36 states, he also supports allowing Nigeria’s states to form their own police forces to reinforce Nigeria’s currently federally-controlled military and police forces. Buhari [a former military ruler] is a conservative and has rejected a political restructuring of Nigeria.
Such proposals will reverberate at both ends of Nigeria. The issue of restructuring Nigeria’s unusual federal system has been a big talking point for the last three decades. However, regional autonomy is a potentially explosive issue in a country that fought a civil war from 1967 to 1970 and sacrificed over 1 million of its citizens to prevent one of its southern regions from seceding, and in which just three of the country’s 36 states today produce 75 percent of the country’s oil and over 50 percent of government revenues.
Atiku’s proposals will delight many younger and southern Nigerians who have campaigned for such measures for three decades, hoping that it will allow Nigeria’s oil-producing states to have a greater say over and share of the profits from the oil drilled from their lands…
Historically, many northerners feared that such changes to Nigeria’s constitutional order would reduce the poorer northern states’ share of lucrative revenues from the oil fields in Nigeria’s south. The chairman of the Northern Elders Forum, Ango Abdullahi, claimed that some have “personalized restructuring with a view to targeting a section of the country, and this is the area that we feel very sensitive about, and we will resist it.”
Yet the north also has its own reasons to support Atiku’s restructuring ideas. Many complain that Nigeria’s police and soldiers (who are recruited from all over the country under a quota system) are disadvantaged in their fight against the militants of Boko Haram because most of them are not from the northeast where the insurgency emerged, are not familiar with the terrain, and don’t speak the local Kanuri language of the region, thereby making it difficult for them to win the trust of locals and obtain intelligence from them. Some argue that troops should be locals with knowledge of the local language, terrain, and customs…
Some of the military’s successes against Boko Haram have been due to the assistance given to them by a militia of local volunteers called the Civilian Joint Task Force. Using their local knowledge, the group has provided vital intelligence to the military, set up security checkpoints, arrested or executed Boko Haram members, and even assisted the military during raids. Twelve states in Nigeria’s north operate under sharia. Some of these states created enforcement corps known as Hisbah to police their legal code. Several years ago, some southern states also allowed vigilante groups to apprehend armed robbers…
[L]ocal ethno-cultural and religious differences demonstrate the challenges of allowing local communities to create their own security forces. In one part of the country they may be used to fight insurgents, to enforce a theocracy in another, or as political thugs in another. In a country with deep sectarian cleavages such as Nigeria, legislating different legal regimes for these groups would be impossible without accusations of ethnic, geographic, or religious bias. Thanks to Buhari and Atiku’s candor, these are no longer academic debates but immediate real-life problems that Nigeria’s next government must confront.
If Buhari holds on to power, he will be under pressure to respond to these thorny issues. If Atiku wins, the electorate will expect him to deliver on his campaign promises. Even if neither man intends to touch the restructuring time bomb, the issues they have raised are likely to be picked up by whoever contests the next election…
In Nigeria, younger politicians are far more likely than their conservative elders to implement massive reforms. No matter what Buhari and Atiku do, a southern successor is far more likely than them to push for radical changes to Nigeria’s structure. And that means four years from now Nigeria may have a president with the motivation to not only espouse reforms, but implement them, too.
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Labels: election, federalism, leaders, Nigeria, politics
Danger for election
It's disturbing that election is being sabotaged. Is there a pattern to the attacks?
Fire Razes Another INEC Office — The Third In Two Weeks
In less than two weeks, a third office of the Independent National Electoral Commission in Awka, the Anambra State capital, was engulfed in flames on Tuesday.
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| Awka INEC office |
Loads of materials for the presidential and National Assembly elections scheduled for February 16, 2019, were affected by the inferno, which occurred at the INEC office near the Dr. Alex Ekwueme Square in Awka.
Card readers and other sensitive materials for the elections were razed during the incident.
The cause of the fire has not been determined as officials of the fire service are still trying to put out the fire.
Two INEC offices in Plateau and Abia states had been affected have been razed over the past few days.
The commission had called for improved security and the Inspector General of Police ordered tight security around INEC offices across the nation.
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Labels: election, Nigeria, political culture
German analysis of Nigeria's election
This is a useful analysis from Deutsche Welle news service. Interesting title.
2019 Nigeria election: What you need to know
This time next month Nigerians will be heading to the polls to vote in the general election. It looks likely to be a tight race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari from the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the People's Democratic Party (PDP). A record 84,004,084 people have registered to vote — an increase of 18 percent from the 2015 election.
With no opinion polls published indicating clear support for any particular candidate, it's difficult to accurately predict the outcome. Observers are already branding it one of the closest political races in the country's history.
Currently 25 candidates are set to take part. While Buhari and Abubakar are widely seen as the frontrunners, there are a number of interesting candidates in the mix.
For example, chartered accountant and activist Oby Ezekwesili – best known internationally as the founder of the #BringBackOurGirls campaign. Given that Nigeria is one of the worst countries in the world when it comes to female political representation, Ezekwesili's decision to run with the Allied National Congress Party of Nigeria (ACPN) could be viewed as a sign that things are slowly changing.
However, Abubakar is widely considered to be Buhari's main challenger. The former vice president under Olusegun Obasanjo has made a bid for the presidency five times for four different parties…
Buhari's chances of victory this time are less certain than in 2015, when he became the first opposition leader to win a presidential election in Nigeria. The 76-year-old has been criticized for failing to meet many of his campaign promises…
Nigeria has one of the largest youth populations in the world; however this election has again made it clear that national politics remain dominated by the older generation.
Blogger and member of the #NotTooYoungToRun campaign, Maryam Laushi, believes Buhari and Abubakar do not provide young people with a clear enough choice.
"The issue with Nigerian politics and the two major parties is that we do not clearly see a difference in ideology," she told DW. "And that lack of ideological direction makes it difficult for a voter to decide, as a young person, who to vote for. We want to know that we're going to get more jobs, we want to know that the future is secure for us."
Laushi think that cultural barriers in Nigeria, such as always placing the older generation on a higher level than the youth, are making change harder.
"In some ways this is a good value to have, but when it comes to the open political space it makes it really difficult for young people to participate."
Ultimately, it seems this election will be decided on the three key issues which also characterised the 2015 election: insecurity, the economy and corruption.
INSECURITY
Ongoing insecurity in the north of the country is a major election issue for Buhari, as extremist group Boko Haram continues to hold on to or retake ground in the country's north-east. He has been criticized for failing to stem the insurgency. But while the extremist group frequently makes international headlines, it's easy to forget that Nigeria is struggling to contain other security crises.
This includes the conflict between farmers and herders in the north-west, south-east and Middle Belt region, which is often attributed to ethnic and religious differences. There is also the issue of the Niger Delta, where militants often target oil pipelines…
THE ECONOMY
Economic concerns are likely to play a significant role in next month's elections. Current unemployment data shows unemployment has risen to 23.1 percent, up from 18.1 this time last year, and the economy is again in danger of slipping back into recession.
While both frontrunners take a similar stance on the other key issues, they differ when it comes to economic concerns. While Abubakar takes a more market-friendly, business-like approach, Buhari's policies are more interventionist. This is not surprising, as, for decades, Abubakar has been viewed by the people of Nigeria as a businessman of sorts.
CORRUPTION
Buhari frequently claims he has taken steps to tackle the country's endemic corruption. But although the government has taken some measures to reduce corruption —including the introduction of the Treasury Single Account (TSA) to manage government revenue — it still has a long way to go…
Buhari's main rival Abubakar can also hardly boast a clean record. The former vice president has been implicated in an international money laundering scandal and is banned from travelling to the United States for a reason unknown to the public; he maintains that his visa is still being processed.
The reality is that corruption remains so pervasive in Nigerian society that observers are already expecting allegations of fraud and vote buying to be voiced.
"There will be corruption," Ajala told DW. "It's practically impossible for the security apparatus to ensure free and fair elections in every polling booth."
But he remains optimistic for future elections: "Nigeria's democracy is still developing and still emerging. So it will get better. The only thing is the extent to which it will be free and fair. As long as [violations are] not widespread, then it will be acceptable."
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Labels: corruption, election, Nigeria, parties, politics
Can you have an elections with virtually no voters?
An election requires voters, so election officials cast votes
Two voters showed up to a county election in China. So officials decided to cast the ballots themselves
On county election day at a village in central China, officials were faced with an awkward problem: almost no one showed up to vote.
So in a bid to at least give the appearance of an election, four officials in Beiping village decided to take matters into their own hands – by filling out the ballot papers themselves.
Their election fraud has been uncovered in an investigation by the ruling Communist Party’s anti-corruption watchdog in Henan province, its official newspaper reported on Thursday.
In China, county-level members of the People’s Congress are among the only positions of public office directly elected by ordinary voters. But even those elections are tightly controlled and are often, if not always, won by candidates nominated or endorsed by the authorities. The national legislature is elected by members of the provincial bodies, who in turn are elected by those at the prefecture level.
After the 2017 election in Mianchi county, Beiping villagers reported the case to the local Discipline Inspection and Supervision Commission, since most of them had not voted. The county graft-buster then launched an investigation.
Four officials – including Huang Yuqing, who won the poll in Beiping – were found to have filled out more than 800 ballots on voting day, according to the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Daily report.
In fact, only two of the 663 villagers in Beiping were found to have actually voted in the election.
In addition, the investigation found that the Beiping officials had failed to notify most of the villagers of the election and did not hand out ballot papers, according to the report…
[V]illage head Yang Liyu… admitted to filling out ballots himself after he was shown evidence of the vote-rigging.
Yang told investigators that after only two villagers came to vote, the four cadres decided to cast the votes themselves instead of going door-to-door with the ballot papers…
Three of the officials – election winner Huang Yuqing, along with Huang Ziwei and Huang Quanqun – were given internal disciplinary punishments. Yang, the village head, was expelled from the party…
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Labels: China, Communist Party, corruption, election, politics
Huge election
Nearly 3,000 legislators? Remind me, how were these delegates elected? Who voted for them?
China elects 2,980 deputies to national legislature
A total of 2,980 deputies to the 13th National People's Congress (NPC), China's national legislature, have been elected and are awaiting final confirmation.
A report on the election of new NPC deputies, from 35 electoral units across the country, was submitted to the NPC Standing Committee for confirmation Friday…
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| Zhang Dejiang (C, rear), chairman of the Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC), presides over the opening meeting of the Committee |
"The deputies to the 13th NPC make up a broad cross-section with each region, ethnic group and sector of society having proper representatives," said Xin Chunying, deputy secretary-general of the NPC Standing Committee, elaborating on the report at the meeting.
The elections were legal and the qualifications of all deputies are valid, according to a commission of the NPC Standing Committee in charge of checking their validity…
Lawmakers agreed that the 12th NPC Standing Committee has performed its duties well during its five-year tenure, with new progress made in theoretical and practical innovations to the system of people's congresses, and in the building of socialist democracy and rule of law, according to a statement issued after panel discussions Friday afternoon.
"The NPC Standing Committee has firmly safeguarded the authority and core status of Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee, and the authority and centralized, unified leadership of the CPC Central Committee with Xi at the core," the statement said…
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Labels: China, election, regime
Maybe the Mexicans don't need the Russians to get involved in their election
It seems that many people expect their own intelligence service to interfere in the upcoming election.
Mexican presidential candidate accuses government of spying on him
A Mexican presidential candidate has accused the country’s intelligence service of surveilling his campaign – part of a pattern of alleged espionage against opponents of President Enrique Peña Nieto…
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| Ricardo Anaya |
Ricardo Anaya… posted a tweet on Tuesday showing him confronting a person following him in a Jeep. After an awkward handshake, the driver readily identified himself as working for Cisen, the Mexican intelligence service. He said he was following Anaya “so that there’s no problem”…
The left-leaning poll-leader Andrés Manuel López Obrador has also said that he and his family have been spied upon. He has promised to disband Cisen if he wins the 1 July election.
The latest accusations come as Mexico prepares for a contentious presidential campaign. The ruling Institutional Revolutionary party has been bogged down by corruption scandals and the sedate style of its proposed candidate…
Anaya, a former congressman with the right-leaning National Action party, has placed second in most polls…
Cisen has a history of targeting political opponents. “What we were usually subject to were these strategic leaks of recorded conversations that put the person in a bad light,” said Federico Estévez, political science professor at the Autonomous Technological Institute of Mexico.
The interior minister, Alfonso Navarrete, rejected the allegations, saying Cisen personnel were simply “following public activities and events occurring in the country”.
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Labels: election, leadership, Mexico, political parties, rule of law
Campaigning behind Kremlin walls
Neil MacFarquhar, writing in
The New York Times, thinks the election that's important in Russia is the one in 2024, not 2018. I'd keep in mind the fact that Putin's party has a majority in the Duma that's large enough to change the constitution whenever it (and Putin) desires.
Putin’s Re-election Is Assured. Let the Succession Fight Begin.
Ask Russian analysts to describe the coming presidential election campaign, and their answers contain a uniform theme: a circus, a carnival, a sideshow.
What they do not call it is a real election.
With the victory of President Vladimir V. Putin assured, the real contest, analysts said, is the bare-knuckled, no-holds-barred fight to determine who or what comes after him by the end of his next six years in office, in 2024. What might be called the Court of Putin — the top 40 to 50 people in the Kremlin and their oligarch allies — will spend the coming presidential term brawling over that future.
When Mr. Putin confirmed last week that he would run again, he might as well have been firing the starting gun for the race toward his succession. He is barred by the Constitution from seeking a third-consecutive term, his fifth total, in 2024.
“The election itself does not matter at all,” said Gleb O. Pavlovsky, a
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| Pavlosky |
political analyst and former Kremlin consultant. The people around the president, he added, “are deciding the question of who they themselves will be after Putin. That is the main motive behind this fight: It is a struggle for a place in the system after Putin is gone.”…
This jockeying for power is expected to offer all the drama that the March 2018 presidential race sorely lacks. Cloistered, for now, mostly behind the Kremlin walls, the intrigues are expected to burst into public view with increasing frequency as the end of Mr. Putin’s next term approaches…
“You cannot hide the enormous tension, the enormous degree of uncertainty within the Russian elite,” said Konstantin Gaaze, who contributes political analysis to the website of the Carnegie Moscow Center, a policy research organization. “They will do stupid things; they will blackmail each other; they will write reports about each other and bring them to Putin.”…
“Today we have Putin’s Russia,” Mr. Pavlovsky said. “If Putin is gone, Putin’s Russia also has to go. That is also a dangerous situation. His entourage understands this and wants to preserve Putin’s Russia after he is gone.”
So the various factions within the Putin Court will seek to convince the president to name an heir apparent who best preserves their collective interests…
The more Mr. Putin becomes a lame duck, analysts said, the less influence he may have in choosing a successor and the more Kremlin insiders will assert themselves…
“What matters now is your own potential independent of Putin,” Mr. Pavlovsky said, “because the moment is rapidly approaching when Putin will not be able to help you.”
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Labels: election, leadership, politics, Russia
Look for the election results from the UK
Remember, the UK is 5 hours ahead of EDT and 8 hours ahead of PDT (e.g. polls close in the UK at 2:00pm, PDT).
Pay attention to:
- which party gets the most seats in Commons (its leaders get the first chances to form a government)
- how many seats are won by the third, fourth, and fifth place parties (they are likely coalition partners)
- what kind of deals between parties do journalists and political analysts suggest
General Election 2015 timetable
Thursday 7 May 2015 - Polling day
Polling booths open between 7am and 10pm. Counting of votes will begin when the polls close.
Friday 8 May 2015
Counting continues.
Monday 18 May 2015 - New Parliament summoned
Parliament returns on a date set by proclamation.
The Father of the House presides over the re-election of / election of a new Speaker of the House of Commons.
Royal Commission confirms the election of the Speaker of the Commons.
MPs start swearing the Oath of Allegiance or making an Affirmation in the Commons, starting with the Speaker, followed by the Father of the House, the Prime Minister and other members of the Cabinet.
Swearing in continues for two or three further days.
Members of the House of Lords start swearing the Oath of Allegiance or making an Affirmation in the Lords…
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Labels: election, politics, UK
