Preliminary results from Iran
Look for headlines tomorrow or Monday with more official results.
Rowhani allies win second round of Iran elections
Reformist and moderate politicians allied with Iran's President Hassan Rowhani won most seats in second round parliamentary elections, local media reported Saturday.
Unofficial and incomplete results said that of the 68 seats being contested between 33 and 40 went to the pro-Rowhani List of Hope, with conservatives gaining 21 more MPs…
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Labels: elections, Iran, politics
Iranian legislative election
Didn't we have that in February? Yes, but not all races were decided then. Now, Mahmoud Sadri and Emad Goli offer this analysis of the second round elections in
The Guardian (UK).
Discount ticket on the bus to reform: Iran's runoff elections
[A] crucial second round of voting on 29 April is approaching for 64 parliamentary seats in districts all around the country. These are the places that were too close to call in February, when 226 out of 290 seats were decided…
[M]ost of the run-offs are in small towns, scattered around 18 of Iran’s 31 provinces. The races are lively, proving that Iran’s provinces, even if rarely visited by Tehranis much less foreigners, are no longer mired in myopic local rivalries.
Few Iranians have failed to notice the polarisation and keen polemic between reformers and fundamentalists building up over recent years. Case in point: a 32-second video clip has gone viral of a rally on 7 March in Yazd, 388 miles from Tehran, when a mere mention of Iran’s former reformist president Mohammad Khatami sent the crowd into a frenzy of chanting jubilation…
Eight years of economic stagnation, international isolation and corruption charges under the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have made the provinces sit up and take notice. With this election, issues larger than the usual local horse-trading are at stake…
Competition is keen. In the first round of elections on 24 February, out-and-out reformists won 86 seats, giving them and their allies around 54% of seats decided. Capturing a large number of the remaining seats will seal their February victory, a prospect that is encouraging the fundamentalists to rally and try to shore up their losses.
But the 29 April runoff races, despite the vetting process that favours the fundamentalists, bode well for the reform movement. Of the 128 contestants, 52 are on the reformist’s slate: “the Second List of Hope”.
In the past, the reform movement gave up when its candidates were disqualified. No longer. This time they have not given up even when their first-round candidate was defeated, but rather have recruited from among the remaining candidates. This means a candidate who ran as an independent or even fundamentalist in the first round can end up on the ‘Second List of Hope’ running against a more radical fundamentalist.
One Iranian activist puts it this way: after buses leave the terminals in Iran they stop for a second time at the edge of the city and offer discounted prices on any remaining seats. This is what the reform movement is doing. Having to go with a half-empty bus to the elections (because of disqualifications) it has acquired the habit of picking ‘in-between’ candidates, non-ideological moderates, or even ‘rational’ fundamentalists. This is a discounted ticket on the bus of reform…
How many of the 52 reformist-backed candidates will win on 29 April? The overall figures are tight. Mohammad Reza Aref, who was vice-president under Khatami and elected to parliament in Tehran in February has stated that 40 seats is the “must reach” target.
The bus is leaving soon.
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Labels: elections, Iran, politics
Centralization of power
What countries' heads of state appear in military uniforms? What heads of governments wear military apparel? What does it symbolize?
China's Xi Jinping takes commander in chief military title
China's President Xi Jinping has taken on a new military title, in his latest move to exert greater control over the armed forces.
Mr Xi is now commander in chief of the military's Joint Operations Command Centre.
 |
| President Xi |
State media showed him visiting the centre wearing camouflage fatigues…
Mr Xi is already General Secretary of the Communist Party, and chair of the Central Military Commission, which manages the People's Liberation Army…
The title, if anything, underlines what we already knew: China is modernising its armed forces fast, and Xi Jinping is at the centre of that change.
During his visit to the centre on Wednesday, which was widely publicised in state media, he said the armed forces should be "absolutely loyal" and "capable of winning wars".
Experts say his appearance in military fatigues may also be a display of strength aimed at China's rivals…
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Labels: China, leadership, military, regime
Intramural politics
It's spring and the hardliners in Iran want to ensure that women don't use the warmer weather as an excuse to violate the national dress code. Or is it a summer jobs program for teenagers?
Influx of morality police to patrol the streets of Tehran
Police in Tehran are deploying 7,000 undercover morality agents tasked with a fresh crackdown on women defying strict rules on the wearing of the hijab, among other offences deemed un-Islamic.
Every spring, as the temperature rises and with it the desire of people to go out, the authorities in Iran tighten their grip on social norms, increasing the number of the so-called morality police deployed in public places.
They target anything from loose-fitting headscarves, tight overcoats, shortened trousers for women and glamorous hairstyles to necklaces for men. Walking dogs has also been added to the long list of activities that upset the authorities.
It is not clear if the announcement is a response to the recent launch of the Android smartphone app Gershad, which enables users in Iran to circumvent the morality police vans based on information about their locations collected by other users…
The news prompted a great deal of reaction online in Iran. “I wish we were living in a country where instead of undercover agents targeting morality, we had undercover agents targeting corruption of the officials,” tweeted one user. Another user said: “From now on, if someone is stalking you in the street, it’s not the thief, it’s the undercover morality police.”
An Iranian environmentalist and journalist tweeted: “In the whole country, we only have 2,600 conservationists protecting the environment, while in Tehran alone 7,000 people have been hired to police people’s hijab.”…
[President] Rouhani has made clear that he is opposed to such crackdowns but the police operate under the direct control of the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Rouhani’s administration is at odds with hardliners over a number of domestic issues and some critics believe these crackdowns are also aimed at undermining his efforts to bring greater social freedoms.
Who are Islamic 'morality police'?
News that Iran has deployed thousands of undercover agents to enforce rules on dress has cast the spotlight on an institution that is a major feature of daily life in several Muslim-majority countries.
Police forces tasked with implementing strict state interpretations of Islamic morality exist in several other states, including Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Malaysia.
Many - especially those with an affinity with Western lifestyles - chafe against such restrictions on daily life, but others support the idea, and growing religious conservatism has led to pressure for similar forces to be created in countries that do not have them.
Name: Gasht-e Ershad (Persian for Guidance Patrols), supported by Basij militia
Who they are: Iran has had various forms of "morality police" since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, but the Gasht-e Ershad are currently the main agency tasked enforcing Iran's Islamic code of conduct in public.
Their focus is on ensuring observance of hijab - mandatory rules requiring women to cover their hair and bodies and discouraging cosmetics.
They are empowered to admonish suspects, impose fines or arrest members of the public, but under reforms that come into force this year, will soon no longer be able to do any of these things.
Instead, 7,000 undercover Gasht-e Ershad agents will be deployed to report suspected transgressions to the police, who will decide whether to take action.
The Gasht-e Ershad is thought to draw a lot of its personnel from the Basij, a hard-line paramilitary unit; it also includes many women.
What people think: They are mainly seen as a scourge for urban women - usually from wealthier social groups - who try to push the boundaries of the dress code.
This includes wearing the headscarf as far back on the head as possible, or by wearing looser clothing, especially in the heat of summer, although men sporting "Western" hairstyles are also at risk.
Fear of encountering them has even prompted the creation of Android app that helps people avoid Gasht-e Ershad mobile checkpoints.
President Hassan Rouhani has expressed opposition to the Gasht-e Ershad, but Iran's constitution gives him little sway over the security forces.
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Labels: cleavages, gender, Iran, politics
Basic example of China's economic dilemmas
So, why is that the booming Chinese economy is slowing down? What's happening to production? Here's a most basic explanation.
Bleak times in bra town
A PYRAMID of bras stands beside each worker at the Honji Underwear factory in Gurao, a town in the southern province of Guangdong… Gurao produces 350m bras and 430m vests and pairs of knickers a year for sale at home and abroad. Undies account for 80% of its industrial output…
[M]any people in Gurao and other underwear-factory clusters around Shantou, a coastal city, worry about the future. Costs are rising, but customers are unwilling to pay more, says June Liu of Pengsheng Underwear, which makes lingerie and swimwear. Last year several factory-owners fled from Gurao, leaving debts and unpaid wages…
During the past three decades of rapid economic growth, one-industry towns like Gurao… sprang up along China’s eastern seaboard… they fuelled the country’s export boom. There are now more than 500 such towns, making products such as buttons, ties, plastic shoes, car tyres, toys, Christmas decorations and toilets…
Niche towns in China produce 63% of the world’s shoes, 70% of its spectacles and 90% of its energy-saving lamps…
China’s consumer goods grabbed a huge share of global markets thanks to their low prices. That advantage is fading. Since 2001 wages have risen by 12% a year. Thailand and Vietnam, where labour is cheaper and taxes lower, now make lingerie for global brands such as Victoria’s Secret and La Senza. China’s biggest underwear firm, Regina Miracle, will open two factories in Vietnam…
Gurao still has advantages, such as excellent supply chains. Several factories there make components for undergarments: dyed textiles, lace and the tough foam used to upholster push-up bras. Every form of elastic waistband used for boxer shorts is produced locally…
Officials in Gurao insist that the town can overcome its difficulties by upgrading its technology and using machines instead of people. But attracting the capital and skill to transform Gurao may be more difficult than [it once was]…
In 2013 migrant workers made up nearly half of Gurao’s 161,000 people. Many are low-skilled, moving from one job to another… Most did not complete high school and are ill-equipped to retrain for jobs in service industries, which the Chinese government hopes will replace manufacturing ones…
Some of the one-product boomtowns could fade away, leaving little behind but the concrete shells of empty factories and polluted soil…
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Labels: China, economics, state capacity
Case study
Brexit (Britain's exit from the EU) won't be on the exam. The referendum isn't until late June. But it's a good case study of governance and sovereignty for the UK. The BBC offers details to consider. There's a 2-minute video in the midst of the column.
The UK's EU referendum: All you need to know
What is happening? UK Prime Minister David Cameron has announced a referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Union to be held on Thursday 23 June. This article is designed to be an easy-to-understand guide - and a chance to ask other questions, a selection of which we'll be answering at the bottom of the page.
- What is a referendum?
- What is the European Union?
- What will the referendum question be?
- What does Brexit mean?
- Who will be able to vote?
- How will you vote?
- What are the main changes David Cameron has agreed?
- How does that differ from what he wanted?
- Why is a referendum being held?
- Who wants the UK to leave the EU?
- Why do they want the UK to leave?
- Who wants the UK to stay in the EU?
- Why do they want the UK to stay?
- So would Britain be better in or out?
- What about businesses?
- What are the rules for campaigning?
- How much can the parties spend?
- So who is going to be leading the rival sides in the campaign?
- Which MPs are for staying and which are for leaving?
- Will it simply be the case of all votes being counted to give two totals?
- I'm away on holiday for the week of 23 June - can I still vote?
- When will the campaigns actually begin?
- When and how will the results be announced?
- If the UK left the EU would UK citizens need special permits to work in the EU?
- What about EU nationals who want to work in the UK?
- Would leaving the EU mean we wouldn't have to abide by the European Court of Human Rights?
- Has any member state ever left the EU, or would the UK be the first?
- If we stay in do we keep the pound for ever?
- How much does the UK contribute to the EU and how much do we get in return?
- If I retire to Spain or another EU country will my healthcare costs still be covered?
- Will the opinion polls get it wrong again?
- Who counts as a British citizen?
- How long will it take for Britain to leave the EU?
- Could MPs block an EU exit if Britain votes for it?
- What will happen to protected species if Britain leaves the EU?
- How much money will the UK save through changes to migrant child benefits and welfare payments?
- If we leave the EU does it mean we would be barred from the Eurovision Song Contest?
- Do Commonwealth citizens resident in the UK on a limited work visa get to vote?
- Can EU citizens living in the UK vote in the referendum?
- What impact would leaving the EU have on house prices?
- What is the 'red tape' that the opponents of the EU go on about?
- Would Britain be party to the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership if it left?
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Labels: democracy, EU, International Organizations, rule of law, UK
Is Putin a powerful leader?
Here's a provocative analysis. It's written by Mark Galeotti, a professor of global affairs at New York University.
Can you find ways to test Galeotti's assertions?
Can you identify an example of a "Potemkin village" described in this essay?
The Putin myth: the Russian leader isn't nearly as powerful as you think
Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin went through one of his ritual Direct Line call-in shows: a three-hour, 40-minute marathon… Putin himself seeming bored.
But the event, however staged and predictable, performed a function common to his public appearances: furthering the myth… that Putin is Russia, the unquestioned and solitary master of his realm.
But it’s not true. And when we buy into this idea, we give him more power than he deserves and make it harder to predict or even influence his next move.
Putin is indeed the "decider" who has the final word on every major policy issue… Yet for all that, if we think that he can and does control everything Russia does at home and abroad, we dramatically misunderstand how the country really works.
First of all, Putin reigns only so long as he can pacify, balance, and over-awe Russia’s sharp-toothed and unforgiving elite. But he can also only rule through the elite…
Time and again during the performance, Putin was in effect confessing to his own political impotence.
He can intervene in specific cases, sure… But Putin cannot fix his country himself, street by street, and the fact that he resorts to these sorts of case-by-case interventions shows his limits.
In the past, he has consolidated his legitimacy as the "good czar" through such individual cases. But after 16 years, and as life is getting harder for Russians, this is becoming an increasingly threadbare act and instead underscores the extent to which he is... not in command…
This dynamic even applies to foreign policy, traditionally the preserve of the head of state. In Ukraine’s Donbas region, for example, a recent spate of ceasefire violations is likely to have been initiated by local rebel militias rather than Moscow. Putin's control is finite.
To be sure, Putin is a very powerful leader. It is not just that he is president in a hyper-presidential system, with a wide range of powers, a toothless and obedient legislature, no meaningful opposition, and sky-high personal approval ratings. Arguably he has hollowed out all Russia’s institutions. The fact that in 2008 he could hand over the presidency to his prime minister, Dmitri Medvedev, yet remain the power behind the scenes and take back the job in 2012 demonstrates the level of his personal power.
After all, Putin is not powerful because he is president; he is president because he is powerful…
This gets to something important: The Kremlin’s policymaking can be more shortsighted and arbitrary than the myth of Putin would have us believe. Russia is not always a rigidly centralized dictatorship but is at times a marketplace of ideas in which Russia’s oligarchs, officials, commentators, and interest groups are engaged in constant competition to pitch their ideas to Putin through the press, think tanks, reports, and personal contacts.
In theory this could be a form of pluralism, but in practice it is a system in which the policies that catch Putin’s eye and imagination have the best chance of success, regardless of their true merits. Given that the real discussions over policy tend to take place behind closed doors and within a very small circle of Putin’s closest cronies, it also means they rarely get careful and professional examination…
We need to be honest and realistic. Putin has often played a weak hand very well. But that does not always mean he gets it right. His intervention into Ukraine has become a messy, expensive stalemate; he is lucky his Syrian adventure has not blown up in his face…
We have no way of penetrating the small circle around Putin where decisions are ultimately made. However, by better understanding the haphazard means by which elites signal their desired policies to Putin, we can watch those more public channels and, perhaps, get advance warning of what is being discussed there…
Trying to make sense of all the little clues, of all the overt and covert attempts to lobby the Kremlin, is hard work. No wonder we tend instead to fixate on Putin, and the degree to which he presents himself as the sole master of Russian policy. But this leaves us prone to being wrong-footed every time.
Back in Soviet times, the West had armies of scholars and analysts practicing "Kremlinology," the arcane arts of trying to predict shifts in Soviet policy and politics through clues from the order in which officials were seated at parades to reading between the lines of editorials in Pravda, the Communist Party newspaper. These days, the ranks of such skilled practitioners of such arts have been thinned, with no new generation to replace them. So instead we watch and marvel at the latest macho Putin photo op, and miss out on the chance to understand the politics behind the poses.
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Labels: leadership, politics, Russia
Reporting in Nigeria
I expected my home town newspaper and media to report on Prince's death. I was surprised to see this report from
Leadership in Lagos, Nigeria.
To golf or not to golf?
Golf has been a symbol used by many politicians. It's also a game preferred by many politicians. What's up now in China? Is a majority of the Politburo figuring out their handicaps? Does some big time golf course owner have the ears of top policy makers? Are deal makers looking for places to talk that aren't monitored by security forces?
Golf is no longer a crime, decrees China's Communist party
Banned by Mao Zedong – who despised the “sport for millionaires” – golf enjoyed a renaissance during the 80s and 90s only to be outlawed for the party’s 85 million members in 2015 as a result of president Xi Jinping’s anti-corruption drive.
Articles in the party-controlled media have painted China’s golf courses as cauldrons of profiteering where the palms of rotten officials are greased by favour-seeking business people…
Party leaders appeared to step back from their condemnation of the game this week.
“Since it is only a sport, there is no right or wrong about playing golf,” an article in the Discipline Inspection and Supervision News, the official newspaper of China’s anti-corruption agency, declared.
The newspaper pointed to article 87 of the Communist party’s disciplinary regulations which deals with potential punishments for the illicit possession of golf membership cards.
“Can officials play golf while the nation steps up efforts to clamp down on corruption and promote austerity?” the China Daily asked. “The answer is yes - if they pay out of their own pockets.”…
Su Wei, an academic at a school for Communist party cadres in Chongqing, told the Global Times, “Golf can satisfy some officials’ vanity, corrupting their lifestyle, which can lead to damage to the Party’s image and the erosion of officials’ ability to serve.”…
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Labels: China, corruption, politics
Solving problems and hurting opponents
Sometimes it seems that resolving a political/economic problem can be satisfying if your political opponents suffer as a result.
Iranian Parliament Cancels Cash Subsidies to 24 Million People
Iran’s lame-duck Parliament approved a bill… canceling cash subsidies to 24 million Iranians…
Analysts said the action was a stick in the eye for Mr. Rouhani from the conservative-dominated Parliament, forcing him to figure out how to put the unpopular measure into effect.
However, with sagging oil prices cutting Iran’s national income, the International Monetary Fund and other groups have warned that Tehran will have to cut back the system of giving monthly cash payments to nearly all of its 80 million citizens or risk running huge deficits.
As such, the Parliament’s action places Mr. Rouhani in a difficult position, economists say. Canceling the subsidies is a critical part of any economic overhaul, something that Mr. Rouhani has promised to undertake. But the measure is likely to add to growing complaints over his handling of the economy…
Most urban Iranians say they do not need the payments, which are meager compared with their cost of living. But many people feel the monthly stipend is their fair share of the nation’s wealth…
Outside the larger urban areas, where life is much cheaper, the subsidies often support entire families…
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Labels: cleavages, economics, Iran, politics
Increasing state capacity
Outside investment is a common way to expand the capacity of a state. President Buhari did that in Beijing.
China, Nigeria pledge to further promote strategic relations
China and Nigeria has pledged to further promote their strategic partnership during the state visit of Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari.
 |
| Xi and Buhari |
To further deepen the two countries' friendship and reciprocal cooperation is in the long-term interests of the two countries and peoples, and conducive to the peace, stability and development of Africa and the world, said Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his talks with Buhari at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing.. .
Xi said the two sides should maintain high-level engagement, increase exchanges in all areas, give each other understanding and support on issues of their core interests and major concern, and strengthen strategic mutual trust.
China is ready to expand bilateral cooperation in such areas as agriculture, fisheries, oil refining, mineral exploitation, mechatronics, light industry, textile and processing. China is also willing to help Nigeria solve the bottleneck of infrastructure, professionals and funds in developing industry and modern agriculture, Xi said…
Xi also pledged to give more support to Africa's development. He said China will implement the outcome of the latest Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit held in Johannesburg last December to give more assistance to Africa to realize reciprocity and common development.
Buhari thanked China for its long-term assistance to Nigeria's infrastructure construction…
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Labels: China, state capacity, UK
Begin budgeting
Iran has begun the project of planning government spending. But can it get $40 for a barrel of its oil?
Iran's parliament approves $97 billion budget
Iran's official IRNA news agency is reporting that the country's parliament has approved a $97 billion budget for the current year.
The Tuesday report says that the new budget allows the government to set the price of oil at $40 a barrel and to export 2.25 million barrels per day.
Iran says it has increased its crude export to 2.1 million barrels per day, almost double the production levels before a nuclear deal with world powers…
The bill needs ratification by the Guardian Council, a constitutional watchdog, to become law.
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What You Need to Know 7th edition is ready to help.
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Just The Facts! 2nd edition is a concise guide to concepts, terminology, and examples that will appear on May's exam.
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The Comparative Government and Politics Review Checklist.
Two pages summarizing the course requirements to help you review and study for the final and for the big exam in May. . It contains a description of comparative methods, a list of commonly used theories
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Labels: budget, Iran, legislation, regime
Just The Facts! 2nd edition is a concise guide to concepts, terminology, and examples that will appear on May's exam.
