Latest on Iranian election results
In Iran Elections, Conflicting Forecasts Emerge Along Rival Lines
A day after results in the capital showed a landslide victory for reformist and moderate allies of President Hassan Rouhani in Iran’s parliamentary elections, state television on Sunday reported a nationwide triumph for hard-liners.
The English-language news channel Press TV echoed forecasts by news organizations affiliated with the hard-liners, saying that their candidates had won decisively outside the major city centers…
In Tehran, where results are official, the urban middle classes voted in large numbers for the combined list of reformers and moderates who support Mr. Rouhani. In other large cities, many reformists also won. While Iran’s eight biggest cities make up more than half the country’s population, they control only 57 of the 290 seats in Parliament…[emphasis added by blog editor]
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Labels: elections, Iran
An alternative to dumping tea in a harbor?
A tea party-like movement in the UK?
Welsh Town Leads a British Revolt Against the Tax System and Corporations
Fifty small businesses line the cobbled streets of Crickhowell [in Wales]…
[T]here is Steven Lewis’s coffee shop, Number 18 Cafe & Brasserie, which, like a lot of the other mom-and-pop operations in Crickhowell, houses a grievance that resonates far beyond the town’s borders.
Mr. Lewis, 63, a broad-chested former military man, has helped turn Crickhowell into ground zero for a revolt by small-business owners in Britain against a tax system they see as rigged against them in favor of multinational corporations like Facebook, Google and Starbucks…
 |
| Stephen Lewis |
Mr. Lewis said he paid the 21 percent corporate tax rate on his profits last year, equivalent to 31,000 pounds, or $45,200. By contrast, Facebook — which is based in the United States but does business in Britain and is therefore subject to British taxes — paid just £4,327, or $6,274, in corporate tax in 2014…
That is just one glaring example, Mr. Lewis and his fellow shopkeepers in Crickhowell said, of what amounts to multinational tax dodging on a gargantuan scale, leaving the little guy to pick up the tab…
Britain’s tax authority, Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs, said in a recent report that the amount of tax lost to Britain because of avoidance schemes was an estimated $4.3 billion in 2014…
the tax offenders are not just American. There is Caffè Nero, the London-based coffee chain that did not pay a penny of corporate tax in Britain for a decade. Cadbury, the British confectioner… has not paid taxes for the past five years, despite making about $144 million in profits each year…
Many shops in Crickhowell already have stickers pasted on their windows that declare themselves part of a “Fair Tax Town”…
Another of his aims is to have the tax authorities enforce a five-star system that would rate which companies have paid the appropriate taxes and make the results public…
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Labels: policy, politics, protest, taxation, UK
Cleavages and issues in Iran
What cleavages and issues can you identify in this report from
The Guardian.
From Kurdistan to Tehran: the urban-rural divide as Iranians turn out to vote
As excitement mounts leading to… parliamentary elections, a palpable difference in priorities is emerging, as it often does, between voters in Iran’s urban areas and its provinces…
While provincial voters are primarily concerned with practical issues related to rural development and ethnic and kinship affiliations, urbanites are often drawn into the kind of political and ideological discourse that makes national headlines – a never-ending battle of reformists, principlists, moderates, and everything in between.
Farshad, a campaign organizer for a Kurdish candidate in Kermanshah province, has studied in Tehran and experienced the urban-rural contrast firsthand.
“People here are not subject to the forces of national politics,” says Farshad of the political environment in the Kermanshah district his candidate is hoping to seize. “Elections in big cities, especially in Tehran, are subject to the political situation – how open or closed the political environment is.” He adds: “Instead of our demands being political, the demands here are more local.”
Voters are concerned with economic development, Farshad says of Kermanshah’s electorate. “Instead of looking for a representative who ascribes to a certain political discourse, they’re more interested in someone who’s going to bring about welfare, development, and better services.”…
Reformists usually draw the largest crowds among the capital’s urban dwellers, discussing jobs, women’s issues and social liberalization… But after Iran’s major vetting body, the Guardian Council, disqualified most major reformist candidates in the run-up to Friday’s election, reformists have centered on whipping up excitement to maximize voter turnout. In turn, they hope to exert as much influence as possible on the Iranian parliament’s political makeup for the next four years…
Political parties in the western sense do not exist in Iran. Instead, voters choose between lists of various “movements,” or “political suggestions,” says Mehdi, a reformist activist in Tehran, prioritizing the factions that feature recognizable candidates. Now, many voters feel the Guardian Council’s vetting mechanisms have limited their choices to candidates that, while officially running as reformists, may in fact be conservatives with only token reformist tendencies…
Since most known reformist figures have been eliminated from the race, pro-reform voters have been relegated to “second and third-tier reformists” who have been re-qualified by the Guardian Council…
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Labels: cleavages, elections, Iran, politics
Behind powerful men are powerful women
It's rare to hear about a powerful Iranian woman. Here's a profile from Peter Waldman at
Bloomberg Businessweek.
Thanks to Peter Whitehouse, who teaches at The Bolles School in the city of my birth (Jacksonville, FL).
The Woman Shaping Iran’s Oil Future
At Monsoon, a bistro in Tehran that serves sushi, Szechwan beef, and Gouda and calamari on whole wheat toast, the fusion cuisine is an act of defiance… The restaurant, with its rough concrete walls, red countertops, and statues of Hindu and Buddhist goddesses, looks more Manhattan than Islamic Republic. Seated at a corner table is Elham Hassanzadeh… Her dining companions are the middle-aged bosses of two large Iranian engineering and construction companies.
 |
| Elham Hassanzadeh |
Raised in a pistachio-farming family in tradition-minded southern Iran, Hassanzadeh, 31, earned her law degree and Ph.D. in the U.K. … She has returned to Iran to head a consulting firm, Energy Pioneers, based in Tehran and London, that’s at the vanguard of Iran’s all-out push to lure back foreign investors after the expected lifting of sanctions in coming months… Lately she’s been commuting between Iran and Europe to speak at trade conferences and in meetings with Western oil executives, fund managers, bankers, and lawyers about her country’s reemergence.
Despite her age, she cultivated a wide network of industry players in Europe during her years at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies…
Iran is ready to rebuild its energy industry. The West has been salivating since the July 2015 breakthrough on lifting the sanctions…
Hassanzadeh became fascinated with energy while earning her bachelor’s degree in law at Islamic Azad University in Tehran under Hassan Sedigh, one of Iran’s leading oil and gas attorneys… “People are really intrigued by her, especially in the West,” says Jonathan Stern, Hassanzadeh’s dissertation adviser and the founder and chairman of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies’ natural gas research program. “A young Iranian woman with great English skills, an academic background, real-world experience, and a law degree isn’t like anything anyone’s ever seen before.”
In terms of shock value, it’s not only that Hassanzadeh is a woman in the largely male world of oil and gas. It’s what she says. To her Iranian clients… Hassanzadeh tells them they’re not ready… Iran needs technology, know-how, and good jobs…
For Western companies to make joint ventures with Iranian partners on more equal terms, Iran must first build an “investment infrastructure” of independent auditors, lawyers, consultants, and courts that foreigners can trust, Hassanzadeh says. This takes time and a societal commitment to the rule of law. As of now, Iran doesn’t even have a reliable credit reference system…
To potential Western investors, just as eager as Iranians to establish ties, she counsels patience… After her book came out, she gained foreigners’ respect for having a clear-eyed view of Iran’s problems, and for not simply trying to earn a quick commission as a middleman…
While graybeards in turbans generate most of the headlines, it’s the young who are driving Iran’s reengagement with the West. Two-thirds of the nation’s 78 million people are under 35; almost 60 percent of high school graduates attend college, roughly the same rate as in Britain and France. The demand for jobs and a sense of normalcy by this educated demographic bulge is the gravest long-term threat to the Islamic regime—and its greatest human asset, Hassanzadeh says…
Another point of tension: While women now make up more than 60 percent of the nation’s college students, they’re only 18 percent of its workforce. Education is cherished in Iran, but marriage and stay-at-home motherhood are pushed even harder, particularly by husbands…
“Ahmadinejad’s reelection was like a heart attack,” she says. “Everything collapsed, and everybody was suspecting each other. I said, ‘I’m leaving.’ ”
The timing was perfect. When Hassanzadeh finished her energy dissertation in 2013, Rouhani was assuming the presidency…
A lot of their work is assisting Iranian companies with preparing financial documents and feasibility studies that Western investors can trust and understand…
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Labels: economics, gender, Iran, politics
Textbook supplement on Iranian elections of 2016
The Iran Election: What You Need to Know
On Friday, Iranians will go to the polls to elect members of Parliament and the Assembly of Experts. Here’s what you need to know.
- First of all, what is the Assembly of Experts?
- How do the Parliamentary elections work?
- How are the candidates chosen?
- What does the Parliament do? Does it have any real power?
- Do Iranians care about the elections, given that the candidates for Parliament and the Assembly of Experts have been handpicked by conservatives and that the supreme leader has the final say in all matters?
- Speaking of the president, how critical are the elections for him going forward?
- What is the supreme leader’s role in the elections? Can he influence the outcome?
- Will the elections lead to any change in Iran’s relations with Western countries?
- When will we know the outcome?
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Labels: elections, Iran, politics
Democratic centralism
Whatever you want to call it, democratic centralism is on display in Beijing. Can you make sense of all the actions and organizations mentioned?
China's top legislature prepares for NPC annual session
 |
| Zhang Dejiang, chairman |
The Standing Committee of China's National People's Congress (NPC) will convene its bimonthly meeting from Feb. 24 to 26, to prepare for the annual congress session next month.
Key tasks at the meeting will include discussing an agenda for the fourth annual session of the 12th NPC, and a work report of the NPC Standing Committee to be submitted for review during the session, said a statement issued after the meeting of chairman and vice chairpersons of the NPC Standing Committee on Monday.
[The] meeting was presided over by Zhang Dejiang, chairman of the NPC Standing Committee…
The Fourth Session of the 12th NPC will begin in Beijing on March 5.
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Labels: China, legislature, politics
Research Data
If you set your students to do some research, the
CIA World Factbook is a good start.
Gapminder is in many ways even better. Original sources can be found
on my book's website.
And now, there's V-Dem.
Look for correlations in the
Factbook, find historical trends and correlations with Gapminder, explore official and journalistic data from original sources. And, define democracy with V-Dem.
Open data and (15 million!) new measures of democracy
There is no consensus on the definition of democracy and how to measure it. The understanding of what a democracy really is varies across countries and regions. This motivates the V-Dem approach not to offer one standard definition of the concept but instead to distinguish among five principles different versions of democracy: Electoral, Liberal, Participatory, Deliberative, and Egalitarian democracy…
V-Dem differs from previous datasets by distinguishing among different principles of democracy (as discussed) and offering about 350 unique democracy indicators, 34 indices of various aspects of democracy such as freedom of association, and five main democracy indices for Electoral, Liberal, Participatory, Deliberative, and Egalitarian democracy. These all cover 173 countries, measured annually from 1900 to 2012…
Scholars, students, media, policy analysts, practitioners, and others interested in the status of democracy in the world can visit our website, where they can use the online analysis tools to generate graphs showing a country’s regime trajectory and comparisons with other country…
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Labels: concepts, democracy, research
Cash for generals?
The news from the anti-corruption investigation in Nigeria seems to show progress and confirm last year's rumors.
Nigeria to probe generals over arms fraud
Twelve senior Nigerian army officers have been handed over to the anti-corruption agency for their alleged involvement in an arms scandal…
If the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) finds enough evidence against them, they would be tried in a military court, the army said.
A presidential inquiry last year found that fake contracts worth $2bn (£1.3bn) were awarded by last administration.
It alleged that the money, which was meant to buy arms to fight the Islamist Boko Haram group, has gone missing.
The former national security adviser, Sambo Dasuki, was charged in December in connection with the case involving $68m that is alleged to be missing. He was accused of awarding phantom contracts to buy helicopters, fighter jets and ammunition, which he denied…
The army's announcement follows President Muhammadu Buhari's order last month to investigate 20 former military chiefs and officers over the alleged arms procurement fraud.
Several close associates of former President Goodluck Jonathan are also facing trial in connection with the scandal.
During the fight against Boko Haram, many soldiers reported that they did not have enough equipment to take on the insurgents…
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Labels: corruption, Nigeria
Reformers? Not us.
Can you identify what stage of revolution (from
Crane Brinton's historical model) Iran is in now?
Iran’s Thwarted Reformers Set Careful Goals for Coming Vote
A decade of relentless pressure from the judiciary, the Revolutionary Guards and clerical councils dominated by hard-liners has confined Iran’s reformists. The reformists were a force during the presidential contest of 2009, but the movement was decapitated after its political leaders voiced support for the millions of people who took to the streets to challenge the fairness of the vote. Reformist parties were closed down, and hundreds of activists, politicians and journalists were given long jail sentences…
The election of President Hassan Rouhani in 2013 raised the hopes of the reform movement… But internally, virtually nothing changed. The political space remained constrained, and the hope that reformers would re-emerge as a guiding force has not come to fruition…
During the campaign rally, the new leader of the reformists, Mohammad Reza Aref, seemed most concerned with reassuring hard-liners who accuse his movement of opposing the legacy of the 1979 revolution. “We act within the system,” Mr. Aref said in front of thousands of supporters. “Nobody loves the revolution more than us. Like a mother, we feel concern for it and want to preserve it.”
For the elections, thousands of reformist candidates were barred from participating by the Guardian Council, a 12-member vetting body that is dominated by hard-liners. As a result, the remaining reformists have joined forces with supporters of Mr. Rouhani’s self-styled moderate government.
In the other election, for the Assembly of Experts… the reformists are also supporting alternative candidates. Their main figure, Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the leader of the 1979 revolution, was also barred from participating…
In the early 2000s, the reformists openly sought to alter the Islamic republic’s rigid ideology, and rewrite laws in order to decrease gender inequality and promote personal freedoms. The leader, Mr. Khatami, served two terms as president, and for four years the reformists dominated Parliament. Backed by record numbers of voters, they seemed set to herald a new, more modern era for Iran. Instead, the period was dominated by political infighting, student protests, sit-ins in Parliament and the closure of dozens of reformist newspapers.
However, Iran’s young society has changed at a lightning pace over the past decade, propelled by the rise of the Internet, satellite television, the influx of oil money and cheap foreign travel…
Political reforms have been aggressively blocked on all levels by hard-liners who have gained unprecedented power. Much has been done to undermine the reformists…
Iranians often say they get to choose between the bad and the worse in elections. While the reformists might have difficulty promoting their agenda, they are political kingmakers. They can attract millions of potential voters because they are the only viable political option for many urban dwellers. However, these people will vote only if they feel something is at stake. Used to self-censorship, and shy of the dangers of political activism, they tend to turn out in large numbers if they feel it is in their interest…
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Labels: elections, Iran, leadership, politics
Papal visit illuminates Mexico's fault lines
After the colonial experience of clerical power, Mexico has been a champion of separation of church and state. But it's also an overwhelmingly Roman Catholic population. Now comes a visit from a Spanish speaking Pope.
New York Times reporters think the situation tells us much about Mexico.
Francis’s Visit to Mexico Comes as Country Struggles With Many Ills
For more than a century, the Mexican government has treated the Catholic Church with a deep suspicion, if not outright hostility…. anticlerical laws stayed on the books until just a couple of decades ago.
But gauging by the Mexican government’s enthusiasm ahead of Pope Francis’ visit, the popular leader’s arrival may… provide a much-needed boost to the government’s flagging credibility…
 |
| Mexico City billboard |
But the pope’s itinerary also poses a major risk to the government, highlighting at each turn some of the state’s most obvious challenges and failings — poverty, inequality, corruption and rampant violence. The pope could even combine all these themes at once if he decides to meet with the families of 43 missing students, whose mysterious disappearance has become a byword for government incompetence and complicity with criminality…
“When Pope Francis urges the Church to be more courageous, to have much more of an evangelical attitude, one of sensitivity and solidarity with the poorest sectors of society, the Mexican hierarchy feels very uncomfortable,” said Bernardo Barranco, a sociologist in Mexico…
The pope’s itinerary spans many of the social and geographic divides that define Mexico. He will visit the nation’s poorest region, Chiapas, to underscore the plight of indigenous communities and their place in the Roman Catholic Church. In Ciudad Juárez, across the Rio Grande from El Paso, Tex., he will express his solidarity with migrants… He will visit slums and the violence-wracked state of Michoacán, where he will most likely expand his critique of poverty, corruption and drug cartels…
Many ordinary Mexicans are deeply frustrated with the government, with crime and violence features of daily life and the economy cleaved by inequality. Corruption from the top levels of government down to the police on the streets has engendered deep public cynicism. President Enrique Peña Nieto is suffering from the worst poll ratings in the last quarter century…
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Labels: Mexico, political culture, politics
Let's vote on it
Cameron: Britain's Referendum on EU Membership to Be June 23
A historic referendum on whether Britain should stay in the European Union will be held on June 23, Prime Minister David Cameron announced…
The deal Cameron agreed upon Friday with 27 other EU leaders protects Britain from taking part in an "ever closer union" with European nations and makes clear that Britain will not adopt the euro currency shared by 19 EU nations. Cameron says it also protects British interests and restricts British welfare payments to migrants from other EU nations.
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Labels: EU, politics, referendum, UK
Just The Facts! 2nd edition is a concise guide to concepts, terminology, and examples that will appear on May's exam.
