Teaching Comparative Government and Politics

Wednesday, March 27, 2019

Into the modern world of finance

If we needed another sign that China is changing, here's one from the People's Bank of China (PBOC).

Chinese own nearly 7.6 billion bank cards
On average, Chinese people had more than five bank cards at the end of last year as more people in the world's second-largest economy turn to non-cash transactions, according to a report from the central bank.

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) said in a report on the country's banking payment service that bank cards in use totaled 7.60 billion at the end of 2018, up 13.51 percent year on year.

Last year, a total of 220.31 billion transactions worth 3,768.67 trillion yuan (about 562 trillion U.S. dollars [a yuan is valued at about 15 U.S. cents]) were made through non-cash payment instruments such as commercial bills and bank cards, according to the PBOC report.

Among the bank cards in use, the number of debit cards rose 13.2 percent year-on-year to reach 6.91 billion.

PBOC data shows spending per card reached 12,200 yuan [$1830] on average, up 19.06 percent from a year earlier.

Further, credit card loans that were more than six months overdue hit 78.86 billion yuan [$1,183 trillion] at the end of last year, accounting for 1.16 percent of the total outstanding credit loans.

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Tuesday, March 26, 2019

Parliament without a government?

How does a Parliamentary system function without a government?

Parliament Grabs Control of Brexit From a Wounded Theresa May
Britain’s Parliament grabbed control Monday of the government’s efforts to leave the European Union, challenging the country’s political traditions and inflicting on Prime Minister Theresa May a rebuke not suffered by any recent predecessor.

By stepping into the process known as Brexit and trying to define an alternative path, lawmakers could create a constitutional showdown in Britain, where the government normally controls the agenda in Parliament, especially on its most pressing issues.

Parliament passed an amendment giving itself the power to vote on alternatives to the government’s Brexit plan…

Mrs. May’s grip on power is ebbing, with members of her cabinet openly discussing contradictory Brexit policies, rumors swirling of a plot to replace her and several of her Conservative Party lawmakers calling on her to name a date for her departure from power…

Parliament’s attempt to take control was led by Oliver Letwin, a veteran Conservative lawmaker, and is driven largely by fear of leaving without an agreement, a rupture that could leave ports jammed and cause huge economic dislocation…

Under the amendment… which passed by a vote of 329 to 302, Parliament will hold a series of votes on Wednesday on alternatives to Mrs. May’s plan.

These could include a so-called “soft Brexit” that would keep Britain tied into European economic structures; a second referendum, revoking Brexit completely; or leaving without any deal…

Demonstrably, discipline has almost completely broken down inside the government and there is a feeling among many at Westminster that something has to give soon…

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Monday, March 25, 2019

And the winner is (or will be)…

Without transparency, knowing everything that's going on in Iran is impossible.

Clues to the identity of Iran’s next supreme leader in the back alleys of a holy city
The upcoming transition could remake Iran, the world’s only Shiite theocracy, and alter the geopolitics of the Middle East, where Iran has been projecting its influence in places such as Syria and Iraq.

But the inner workings of Iran’s Islamic system — which is based on a contested Shiite doctrine known as wilayat al-faqih, or “guardianship of the jurist” — is notoriously opaque. And efforts to determine the next steps have become somewhat of a parlor game in both the Iranian capital Tehran and in Najaf. The names being bandied about to succeed the supreme leader include those of the chief of the judiciary, the head of a powerful advisory council and Khamenei’s own son.

The clergy in Najaf, the primary center of Shiite theology in the world, are for the most part averse to the idea of a supreme religious and political authority and operate independently of the clerical establishment in Iran…

“Khamenei now is a very strong leader,” said Sheikh Khaled al-Baghdadi, a Najaf cleric clad in a white turban and loose brown robe… Baghdadi is among those who doubt the theological legitimacy of the supreme leader position but acknowledges that Khamenei has made effective use of the role…

But even as Khamenei has consolidated power — promoting allies and empowering the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is tasked with safeguarding the Islamic system — Iran is facing an uncertain period as its economy falters and tensions with the United States rise. At home, rampant corruption and soaring inflation have stunted economic growth and angered ordinary Iranians. Abroad, Iran is confronting a U.S. pressure campaign that seeks to isolate the Islamic Republic…

Such instability, experts say, could undermine an otherwise smooth succession. And that has many Iranians ill at ease…

According to Iran’s constitution, if Khamenei dies or is otherwise incapacitated, a leadership council would be formed to lead for an interim period. A separate body, known as the Assembly of Experts, is responsible for naming a successor…

“The next leader should at least have experience leading the judicial, executive or legislative branch,” said Mohsen Kadivar, a former cleric and Iranian political dissident who teaches Islamic studies at Duke University.

But because the stakes are so high, analysts say, it is likely that the formal process will be bypassed in favor of more covert negotiations. The Revolutionary Guard in particular will hold powerful sway over the process, experts say.

“The person chosen by Khamenei will be announced . . . after the candidate receives approval from Revolutionary Guard commanders,” Kadivar said.

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Friday, March 22, 2019

Russian InterNYET

Russia did not get started with a great Internet wall when China did. Now it may be too late.

Russians are shunning state-controlled TV for YouTube
When the Soviet people turned on their television sets on August 19th 1991, they knew there was an emergency. Every channel was playing classical music or showing “Swan Lake” on a loop. A few hours earlier Mikhail Gorbachev had been detained during an attempted coup. As the Soviet Union crumbled, the fiercest street battles unfolded over television towers. “To take the Kremlin, you must take television,” said one of Mr Gorbachev’s aides.

Vladimir Putin took note. He began his rule in 2000 by establishing a monopoly over television, the country’s main source of news. It has helped him create an illusion of stability… But the Kremlin’s most reliable propaganda tool is losing its power. Russian pundits have long described politics as a battle between the television and the refrigerator (that is, between propaganda and economics). Now, the internet is weighing in.

According to the Levada Centre, an independent pollster, Russians’ trust in television has fallen by 30 percentage points since 2009, to below 50%. The number of people who trust internet-based information sources has tripled to nearly a quarter of the population. Older people still get most of their news from television, but most of those aged 18-24 rely on the internet, which remains relatively free.

YouTube in particular is eroding the state-television monopoly. It is now viewed by 82% of the Russian population aged 18-44. Channel One, Russia’s main television channel, reaches 83% of the same age group…

News is the fourth-most-popular YouTube category among Russians, after “do it yourself”, music and drama. Mr Navalny, who has become a dominant political voice on the internet, has two YouTube channels, one of which has daily news programmes. In the past year his audience has doubled. He has 2.5m subscribers and 4.5m unique viewers a month. His weekly YouTube webcast is watched live by nearly 1m people. By comparison, Channel One’s main evening news show is watched by 3m-4m people.

The Kremlin is desperately looking for ways to control the internet. “The government is trying to work out how to turn the internet into a television,” says Gregory Asmolov, an expert on the Russian internet at King’s College London. This, he argues, would require not only strict regulation, but control over physical infrastructure and dominance in providing content.

Last month the Duma preliminarily approved a law on “digital sovereignty” which tries to separate Russia’s internet from the global one. It wants to criminalise anti-government messages online, in effect reviving laws on “anti-Soviet propaganda”.

Yet controlling the internet will take more than a few laws. Unlike in China, where the ruling party built its “Great Firewall” by the early 2000s, in Russia the internet was a free zone both in terms of content and infrastructure, with hundreds of private service providers. In the early 2000s it became an alternative to state-dominated television…

[In 2011,] when the Kremlin tried to rig parliamentary elections, sites such as Golos (“Voice”) activated thousands of volunteer election monitors who recorded widespread violations. In the wake of street protests, Mr Putin unleashed repression both online and offline, including denial-of-service attacks on websites, new regulations and prosecution of activists. In 2014 he declared the internet a CIA project and demanded that national internet firms move their servers to Russia. The Kremlin launched groups of “cyber guards” to search for prohibited content, and tried to hollow out the volunteer movement by replicating independent crowdsourcing sites with its own. It even equipped polling stations with webcams, not to increase transparency, says Mr Asmolov, but to create a semblance of it. It also deployed an army of trolls to flood social media with derisive and inflammatory messages…

This heavy-handed approach has alienated young internet users. More recently, the government has changed tactics. Instead of persecuting users, it is establishing greater control over internet providers. New legislation on “digital sovereignty” will oblige them to install surveillance equipment that can be operated from a single control centre. This will allow the state to filter internet traffic, isolate regions or even cut off the worldwide web throughout the country in case of emergency. The government showed it can cordon off individual regions from the internet during recent protests in Ingushetia.

But replicating China’s “great firewall” may be difficult, says Andrei Soldatov, the author of “The Red Web” and an expert on Russian internet surveillance. Russia is more integrated into the internet’s global architecture; its biggest firms, like Yandex, have servers abroad, while global giants such as Google have servers in Russia. More importantly, Russians have grown used to sites like YouTube, which is a big provider of children’s entertainment…

Applying the new law fully, however, might be like smashing a computer screen with a hammer. The Kremlin will have a switch to bring down the internet if a political crisis erupts, but few ways to prevent it from erupting. Pulling the plug to block the protesters’ message from spreading would be the most powerful message of all. In 1991 almost no one had internet access. But everyone knew the country was in turmoil when they turned on the television and saw nothing but “Swan Lake”.

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Thursday, March 21, 2019

The "real" regime of Nigeria?

Most Americans would be hard pressed to name a state in Nigeria. But government in states may be the most important part of the regime.

Nigeria’s state elections are more violent than national ones
Most of Nigeria’s 36 states, which elect[ed] their governors and state legislators on March 9th, have [politically linked [gangs of hoodlums who terrorise the city.] These straddle the boundary between party cadres and criminal gangs. They embody the rottenness of state politics in Nigeria. Governors run their states like personal fiefs, amassing fortunes and grooming protégés once they have hit the two-term limit. Although outsiders often pay little attention to them… Since states are in charge of budgets for education and health, their elections are also more important.

When it gained independence from Britain in 1960 Nigeria was divided into three regions. These were later split into four regions before being sliced up into 12 states in 1967 as the government tried to prevent the secession of one of the regions, Biafra. It was brought to heel in a bloody civil war. In the years since then the country has been further diced into 36 states, several of which are failing…
Governance is often abysmal. At the end of 2017, according to BudgIT, an NGO, only two states generated more than half of their revenue internally, instead of relying on federal handouts…

Checks on governors’ power are feeble. Although each state has its own legislative assembly and electoral commission for local polls, Maliki Kuliya, who served as Mr Kwankwaso’s justice commissioner, says that these are “just appendages of the executive”. As a result, political parties usually matter less than the politicians who constantly switch between them…

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Wednesday, March 20, 2019

Democracy in the Peoples Republic

Regime in China

China recruits Westerners to sell its “democracy”
The annual sitting of the National People’s Congress, China’s well-fed eunuch of a parliament, poses several tests for foreign reporters. Though its committees may suggest tweaks to new laws, and some play a diplomatic role engaging with foreign legislators, meetings of its 3,000 or so delegates are mostly very dull…

There is the odd experience of meeting supposed colleagues who are in fact complete strangers, meaning foreigners employed by Chinese state media, or by obscure Western news outlets that channel Chinese propaganda. Some ask planted questions at press conferences. Others pop up in the state media lauding China’s political system. Xinhua, China’s official news agency, this year put out a video entitled “Chinese democracy in the eyes of an American”. A fresh-faced young man from Chicago, Colin Linneweber, strolls around Tiananmen Square while opining that “it’s widely acknowledged that a key to China’s success is its system of democracy”, and praising the country’s “stability”. He then presents mini-profiles of delegates with such day jobs as farmer, migrant worker and postman, whose proposals for making China better became law. It is tempting to be quite cross with such Westerners. Ordinary Chinese who start praising democracy on the square, a ghost-haunted, massively policed spot, would be instantly arrested. Stability comes at a price, what is more. China’s one-party rule involves more than the absence of messy things like real elections or a free press. It requires active, unsleeping maintenance by state-security agents tasked with tracking, threatening or jailing any who challenge the Communist monopoly on power.

As far back as China’s civil war, party leaders called themselves democrats, unlike their dictatorial rivals, the Nationalist Party or Kuomintang. In 1945 Mao Zedong impressed Chinese intellectuals when he assured a businessman and educational reformer, Huang Yanpei, that democracy would help a Communist government avoid cycles of triumph and decline that doomed imperial dynasties. “Only when a government is subject to the people’s supervision will it not dare to slacken,” Mao declared…

After Mao’s death, when economic opening was not matched by political liberalisation, party leaders sounded a bit defensive about that choice, assuring foreigners that only a firm grip on their vast country could avoid chaos. In the 1990s rule passed to Jiang Zemin, an admirer of Western culture who loved to quote Abraham Lincoln’s call for government of, by and for the people. Asked by an American interviewer whether China was a dictatorship, Mr Jiang replied that he was the elected head of a collective party leadership, although the method of his election had to take account of China’s levels of economic and educational development.

Jump to the present day, and foreigners hear no such half-apologies from the China led by President Xi Jinping. Mr Xi calls China a socialist, consultative democracy, featuring the “orderly participation” of the people and always under the party’s control. Today, state media hail China’s political system as far more responsive and effective than the West’s “conflict-driven”, money-tainted politics…

The Asian Barometer Survey, run by National Taiwan University, has on four occasions quizzed the Chinese public about democracy. Writing in the Taiwan Journal of Democracy, Yue Yin, a political scientist, notes that a narrow majority of the survey’s respondents in China support press censorship in the name of stability, while two-thirds say they are at ease with one-party rule. Yet accountability matters. Nearly 80% reject a government in which “experts decide everything” and 60% say the public should be free to criticise the authorities.

That suggests another way to understand propaganda films in which foreigners call the legislature a beacon of democracy. Such videos are a backhanded tribute to the West. An American’s views on accountable government carry weight, because ordinary Chinese know that American voters can kick the bums out. For now, China’s rulers still mind when their authoritarian system is judged against Western norms. When they no longer think they need the Colin Linnewebers of this world, start worrying.

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Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Don't despair. Trust the Party.

It almost sounds like a line from Animal Farm, but delegates in Beijing are told to "keep the faith" in the face of challenges ahead.

Wang Yang, top Chinese adviser, urges faith in Communist Party’s judgment in face of ‘unprecedented’ challenges
China’s biggest political advisory body has been told to stick to the directives of the Communist Party to confront risks and tasks Beijing called “unprecedented”.
President Xi and Premier Li applaud Wang's speech

“[We] should treat studying the political thoughts of Xi Jinping as the most important task of all, and consolidate the self-confidence in our political system,” Wang Yang, head of the China People’s Political Consultative Conference, said at the closing ceremony of the body’s annual session…

Wang’s words were addressed to more than 2,000 members of the CPPCC, the country’s biggest political advisory body, which includes former officials, academics, business owners and religious leaders from across the country.

At the opening ceremony of the 10-day session on March 3, Wang, the fourth-highest-ranking official in the Communist Party, said China was facing “unprecedented” level of risks, challenges and social demands this year.

He said the advisory body should strengthen consensus building on issues of sensitivity and risk, and guide various sectors to objectively view changing domestic and international situations and the risks they pose with China’s reform and development.

His remarks came as China is locked in a costly trade war with the United States and facing setbacks in its attempts to spread its influence around the world. At home, China is faced with its slowest economic growth in decades, while trying to carry out structural reforms and fend off financial risks…

Beijing is also faced with a series of unflattering milestones this year, including the 30th anniversary of the 1989 crackdown on pro-democracy demonstrations, the 60th anniversary of the exile of Tibet spiritual leader Dalai Lama, the 10th anniversary of the deadly clashes in Xinjiang and the 20th anniversary of its crackdown on spiritual group Falun Gong.

Beijing-based political commentator Zhang Lifan said the government was reaching out to various interest groups as it dealt with pressure from the trade war with the United States and slow economic growth, but the outcome might not be satisfying.

“It’s being played up to reach out to overseas Chinese, the private sector and other groups to rally support for Xi and the party,” Zhang said, “but it could barely convince those who are not loyal parties already.”

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Monday, March 18, 2019

How goes the new presidency in Mexico?

Here's the Economist's view of AMLO's presidency.

AMLO splashes the cash in his first 100 days
"POWER STUNS the intelligent and drives fools mad.” Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico’s president, repeats this adage often, as a rebuke to politicians who promise much and accomplish little. On March 4th, the 94th day of his presidential term, he tweeted the phrase again to show that power has neither stunned nor maddened him, and that he will keep his promise to transform Mexico.

Mr López Obrador, or AMLO, as he is known, has already brought considerable change. He cancelled construction of a part-built international airport, stopped new private investment in the oil industry and shut down fuel pipelines to prevent theft… AMLO has cut the salaries of senior officials and bureaucrats, including his own, and put their cars up for auction. He travels about by commercial airliner.

More than three-quarters of Mexicans like what they see. Nearing 100 days in office, AMLO is more popular than any president at that stage bar Vicente Fox, the first president of the democratic era…

His plan to achieve this involves restoring the state to its earlier position as the main underwriter of Mexicans’ well-being…

AMLO’s statism does not preclude co-operation with the private sector. As Mexico City’s mayor in the early 2000s, he worked closely with firms, for example to rebuild the city’s centre. Many of the infrastructure projects he plans, such as the “Maya train” through the south, will need private or foreign finance. But no one will doubt that the train comes from him.

AMLO has begun by giving more money directly to individuals. His government has doubled pension benefits and made more people eligible for them. It set a minimum price for beans grown in the state of Zacatecas. Eventually, most major crops across Mexico will have support prices. The government will give scholarships and grants to 2.3m young adults…

Change is coming to child care. The “children’s room” programme created by Felipe Calderón, president from 2006 to 2012, pays 950 pesos a month per child to women who provide day care in their neighbourhoods, often their homes. Some 300,000 mothers use the programme. Many do not realise that the state is subsidising the bill. AMLO plans to correct this (and save some money) by paying mothers 800 pesos a month directly.

The pesos-for-the-people approach may not always help its intended beneficiaries. AMLO said he would end subsidies for women’s shelters but failed to explain how he would give money to victims of domestic abuse. After an outcry, he retreated.

Seeming generous will sustain his popularity only if he keeps other promises, especially to reduce crime and corruption, and keep the economy strong…

The biggest threat to his popularity is the economy. The central bank has revised its projection of GDP growth for this year down from 2.2% to 1.6%. Foreign direct investment in the last quarter of 2018 was 15% below its level a year before, partly because investors distrust AMLO…

But for now, millions of Mexicans are cheering a windfall, and the president, just as he hopes…

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Thursday, March 14, 2019

The next supreme leader in Iran?

When a man gets two important promotions quickly, he becomes an immediate suspect for more promotions

Hardline Iranian cleric Raisi gets second powerful job in a week
Hardline Iranian cleric Ebrahim Raisi was elected on Tuesday as deputy chief of the Assembly of Experts, an influential clerical body which chooses the Supreme Leader, the Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported.
Raisi

He got the job less than a week after he was appointed head of the judiciary - making the protégé of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei a key player in Iran’s politics.

A potential contender to succeed Khamenei, Raisi is a former presidential candidate seen as having close links to the elite Revolutionary Guards. He helped oversee the execution of political prisoners in 1988 when he was deputy prosecutor in Tehran…

As deputy chief of the 88-member Assembly of Experts, he is likely to play a prominent role in selecting the next supreme leader.

Raisi’s position as the head of the judiciary, who is appointed by the supreme leader, is also a powerful position in a country that has long used its legal system to crack down on political dissent.

Iran says its judiciary is independent, and its judgements and rulings are not influenced by political interests.

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Wednesday, March 13, 2019

What now?

Parliament said "No" to the PM's deal and now to "No Deal Brexit." And the next step is…?

MPs vote to reject no-deal Brexit
In a night of high drama in the Commons, MPs surprised the government and voted by 312 to 308 to reject a no-deal Brexit under any circumstances.

The vote is not binding - under current law the UK could still leave without a deal on 29 March.

On Thursday, MPs will vote on whether to ask the EU for permission to delay the date for departure.

There could be a short extension - or a much longer one - depending on whether MPs backed the prime minister's existing withdrawal deal that has been agreed with the EU by 20 March, the government says.

That means Theresa May could make a third attempt to get her deal through Parliament in the next few days…

Looking down from the press gallery, some ministers could be seen wrestling with their conscience: hating the idea of a no-deal Brexit, hating the idea of defying the government - and not quite clear if they'd lose their jobs if they did.

Thirteen ministers, including four in the cabinet, could not bring themselves to back the government.

Afterwards, some ministers were seen literally running away, such is the anger tonight has provoked.

So, "what's going to happen next?" seemed like a reasonable question to a minister.

"I've no idea. Find me someone who has and I'll find you a liar," came the reply…

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Presidential reassurance

Mexico's president gave a speech in which he reassured citizens that his new administration was doing things right.

100 Days In, Mexico’s President Revels in High Ratings and Waves Off Recession Fear
As a candidate, President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of Mexico promised to remake Mexico, vowing to end corruption and impunity, attack inequality, pacify the country and disrupt a status quo that, he said, favored the few — the wealthy and powerful — and marginalized everyone else.

On Monday, in a confident speech marking his first 100 days in office, he insisted that transformation was firmly underway.
AMLO at the podium

“We have already begun to write the prologue of the great work of national transformation,” he declared. “We will continue to build, among everyone, the beautiful utopia. We are going to continue walking toward that great ideal of living in a new, free, fair, democratic and fraternal homeland.”

Most Mexicans seem to agree, giving their folksy, man-of-the-people president stratospheric approval ratings. Some recent surveys put his support above 80 percent…

Despite Mr. Lopez Obrador’s popularity, doubt and antipathy abound among some sectors of the Mexican population. His speech didn’t dwell much on the less favorable and widely criticized aspects of his term, most notably weaknesses in the national economy…

In his speech, which was broadcast live on television from the presidential palace in downtown Mexico City, the president extolled his signature achievements to date.

He said his government had begun delivering on its promises to buoy the poor and marginalized through an array of social welfare and development programs, including increasing pensions and other benefits for the elderly, expanding student scholarship programs for the impoverished and promoting job-creation initiatives for the young.

He also underlined the creation of a new security force, the National Guard, which will be in charge of the nation’s public security. And he highlighted his government’s push to combat fuel theft, which, he said, had led to “good results,” including cutting the monthly volume of stolen fuel from 81,000 barrels in November to the current rate of 15,000 barrels…

Mr. Lopez used the speech, which ran nearly 80 minutes, to deliver not only a list of greatest hits in the administration’s first three months but also an outline of the evolving blueprint for the rest of his term in office.

He reiterated his promise to cancel a sweeping education reform that was a signature effort of his predecessor, and to push, among other initiatives, major infrastructure and public works projects including a new oil refinery, roads, an airport expansion and a rail line that would stretch through several southern states and create, he said, 300,000 jobs during the construction phase.

“I am convinced that everything we do to reactivate the economy, to produce, to create jobs and achieve the material and cultural well-being of the people will result in social peace and tranquillity,” he said. “If there is justice, there will be security.”

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Tuesday, March 12, 2019

Another Brexit loss

Brexit: MPs reject Theresa May's deal for a second time
Theresa May's EU withdrawal deal has been rejected by MPs by an overwhelming majority for a second time, with just 17 days to go to Brexit.

MPs voted down the prime minister's deal by 149 - a smaller margin than when they rejected it in January.

Mrs May said MPs will now get a vote on whether the UK should leave the EU without a deal and, if that fails, on whether Brexit should be delayed.

She said Tory MPs will get a free vote on a no-deal Brexit.

That means they can vote with their conscience rather than following the orders of party managers - an unusual move for a vote on a major policy, with Labour saying it showed she had "given up any pretence of leading the country"…

Setting out the next steps, she said that if the Commons declines to approve a no-deal Brexit in a vote on Wednesday, a vote on extending Article 50, the legal mechanism taking the UK out of the EU on 29 March, will take place on Thursday…

Mrs May said leaving without a deal remained the UK's default position but Downing Street said she will tell MPs whether she will vote for no-deal when she opens Wednesday's Commons debate on it.

The prime minister did not discuss resigning after her latest defeat because a government led by her had recently won a confidence vote in the Commons, added the PM's spokesman…

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Security or repression?

Is this an organized political protest or a sophisticated, internet-using populace?

Russia internet freedom: Thousands protest against cyber-security bill
Thousands of people in Russia have protested against plans to introduce tighter restrictions on the internet.
Moscow protest
A mass rally in Moscow and similar demonstrations in two other cities were called after parliament backed the controversial bill last month.

The government says the bill, which allows it to isolate Russia's internet service from the rest of the world, will improve cyber-security.

But campaigners say it is an attempt to increase censorship and stifle dissent.

Activists say more than 15,000 people gathered in Moscow on Sunday, which is double the estimate given by the police…

"If we do nothing it will get worse," one protester told Reuters news agency. "The authorities will keep following their own way and the point of no return will be passed."

Another campaigner, Sergei Boiko, told AFP news agency that "the government is battling freedom"…

The government says the so-called digital sovereignty bill will reduce Russia's reliance on internet servers in the United States.

It seeks to stop the country's internet traffic being routed through foreign servers.

A second vote is expected later this month.

If it is passed it will eventually need to be signed by President Vladimir Putin.

Russia has introduced a swathe of tougher internet laws in recent years. On Thursday, its parliament passed two bills outlawing "disrespect" of authorities and the spreading of what the government deems to be "fake news"…

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Monday, March 11, 2019

More Nigerian elections

Most Nigerian states held local elections on Saturday.

Nigerians vote in governor elections in 29 states
Nigerians are heading to the polls to elect state and local representatives, two weeks after the presidential poll.

Ballots are being cast in 29 of the country's 36 states.

In oil-rich Nigeria, some state governors control budgets larger than those of neighbouring countries and so these are often keenly contested.

President Muhammadu Buhari beat his main rival Atiku Abubakar in the 23 February election, securing a second term.

Across the country, Mr Buhari's All Progressives Congress (APC) got 15.2 million votes while Mr Abubakar's People's Democratic Party (PDP) received 11.3 million. There are 73 million registered voters.

The APC won 19 states, while the PDP secured 16 plus the capital Abuja.

Mr Abubakar said the election was a "sham" and was not free and fair. He has since filed a petition challenging President Buhari's win.

Although turnout for the presidential election was low across the country, it was higher in the northern states - one factor behind Mr Buhari's victory.

Fears of possible election-related violence has led to the massive deployment of security personnel across the country…

The turnout for the state elections is expected to be higher than the 35.5% in last month's presidential election, down from 44% in 2015.

Most Nigerians take state elections seriously because their lives are directly impacted by the governor and representatives in the state legislature…

Lagos, one of the most contested states, has an estimated population of 17.5 million people - this is more than the combined population of Gabon, The Gambia, Liberia, Cape Verde and Sierra Leone.

The state's GDP is more than that of Kenya. In fact, Lagos would be the fifth largest economy in Africa if it were a country.

Other key battle grounds that will be hotly contested between the APC and PDP are Kaduna, Akwa Ibom, Imo, Kano and Kwara.

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Thursday, March 07, 2019

China's legislature

When Americans contemplate a legislature that has about eight times as many legislators as their Congress, they must wonder how anything gets done. This would be time to review democratic centralism and the National People's Congress' Standing Committee.

'Two sessions': Beijing locked down for China's greatest political spectacle
China’s largest political event of the year, a meeting of legislative delegates and political advisers known as the “two sessions”, gets under way this week and comes at a time when Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces one of the most challenging periods since coming to power.

Thousands of delegates will descend on the Great Hall of the People in Beijing while authorities go into overdrive to prevent any semblance of dissent during the two weeks of meetings of the nearly 3,000-strong National People’s Congress (NPC) , and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body.
NPC session
The annual meeting is nicknamed the “two sessions” because both the NPC and the CPCC meet. The NPC, a legislative body, is often described as a “rubber stamping” parliament whose function is mainly ceremonial.

During the meeting, NPC delegates will ratify legislation, personnel changes and the government budget – all of which have been largely approved beforehand. Delegates include not only government officials but also business executives and celebrities like Tencent founder Pony Ma, actor Jackie Chan, and former NBA player Yao Ming.

Most laws are made by the NPC standing committee, which runs the legislature and passes laws throughout the year. The legislature, which has been meeting since 1954, has never voted down a proposed law…

Before major political events, security in Beijing is often tightened with human rights activists put under surveillance or “travelled” outside the capital…

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China's legislature When Americans contemplate a legislature that has about eight times as many legislators as their Congress, they must wonder how anything gets done. This would be time to review democratic centralism and the National People's Congress' Standing Committee.

'Two sessions': Beijing locked down for China's greatest political spectacle
China’s largest political event of the year, a meeting of legislative delegates and political advisers known as the “two sessions”, gets under way this week and comes at a time when Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces one of the most challenging periods since coming to power.

Thousands of delegates will descend on the Great Hall of the People in Beijing while authorities go into overdrive to prevent any semblance of dissent during the two weeks of meetings of the nearly 3,000-strong National People’s Congress (NPC) , and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), an advisory body.

The annual meeting is nicknamed the “two sessions” because both the NPC and the CPCC meet. The NPC, a legislative body, is often described as a “rubber stamping” parliament whose function is mainly ceremonial.

During the meeting, NPC delegates will ratify legislation, personnel changes and the government budget – all of which have been largely approved beforehand. Delegates include not only government officials but also business executives and celebrities like Tencent founder Pony Ma, actor Jackie Chan, and former NBA player Yao Ming.

Most laws are made by the NPC standing committee, which runs the legislature and passes laws throughout the year. The legislature, which has been meeting since 1954, has never voted down a proposed law…

Before major political events, security in Beijing is often tightened with human rights activists put under surveillance or “travelled” outside the capital…

Teaching Comparative blog entries are indexed. Use the search box to look for country names or concept labels attached to each entry.

What You Need to Know 7th edition is ready to help.


Order the book HERE
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Wednesday, March 06, 2019

Slowly come the changes

Although the hukou system has not discouraged many people from flocking to China's cities where there are jobs and opportunities, it might finally be changing.

Could this be the end for China’s notorious household registration system?
China is reviewing its decades-old household registration system to enable migrant workers to stay in cities as the country grapples with an ageing population and a shrinking workforce.

Sun Lijun, deputy minister of public security, said on Thursday that his ministry is considering changes in policy to make it easier for the migrant workers to become the urban residents.

But any changes to the system would not apply to congested the megacities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen that the authorities deem overpopulated, Sun said.

Under the “hukou” household registration system introduced the 1950s, Chinese people are classified as either rural or urban residents depending on where they were born.

Rural residents can enjoy certain land use rights but are not officially allowed to live in cities or have access to government services in those areas such as education and health care.

But as China’s economy developed, around 300 million rural residents migrated to cities to earn a living, putting the system under intense strain.

Now, under a national urbanisation policy, the authorities are trying to encourage about 100 million people living in the countryside to move to cities to help boost the economy.

Addressing a national symposium on social management, Sun stressed the need to come up with a new system in which household registration was based on the place in which the person spent the most time – not where they were born…

“No matter where you come from, you should be able to settle in most of China’s cities, choose the lifestyle you want, and no longer suffer such restrictions,” the site said in an editorial.

But there are many barriers to introducing such a system, according to Peking University sociology professor Lu Jiehua.

“Although the policy excludes megacities like Beijing and Shanghai, the cities that will have to take in more people will need to provide more basic public services including education, health care and housing. Lots of investment is needed,” Lu said.

Gu Shengzu, a member of the National People's Congress’s Standing Committee, has acknowledged publicly that there are major inequalities between urban and rural residents in more than 60 kinds of benefits…

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Tuesday, March 05, 2019

Nigeria: failed democracy?

Here's one observer's analysis of democracy in Nigeria. The author, Remi Adekoya, is the former political editor of the Warsaw Business Journal.

Democracy has failed in Nigeria when voters no longer care who wins
You know a democracy is in trouble when two out of three voters don’t bother to turn up for a presidential election. In Nigeria’s just-concluded presidential poll, incumbent Muhammadu Buhari was re-elected with the backing of 15.2 million voters compared to the 11.3 million votes his main rival Atiku Abubakar, was able to amass…

The 35% voter turnout was down from 44% in the 2015 presidential election and way down from the 54% turnout in 2011. In fact, turnout for Nigerian presidential elections has been dropping at an alarmingly consistent rate since 2003. So why are increasingly fewer Nigerians feeling the need to vote in elections that decide the most powerful political office?

Poor organisation is one reason. The last three elections were all postponed at the last minute, causing frustration as well as suspicion that politicians were delaying things to perfect their rigging strategies. Voting itself often involves waiting long hours, in a cumbersome and inefficient process. For some, it’s too much hassle.

Then there is the ever-present fear of violence on election day. Indeed, violence erupted in several places across the country in this election. Politics is a high-stakes game anywhere; in Nigeria the rewards of victory are particularly high…

Furthermore, this year’s choice between the 76-year-old Buhari, who governed highhandedly and often incompetently during his first term, and the 72-year-old veteran politician Atiku, who is widely considered corrupt, was hardly inspiring.

However, it is likely that the largest contributing factor to the extremely low turnout was the feeling that whoever won, nothing would change. The system is so corrupt that it makes no difference whether X or Y is president. Pew Research conducted last year showed that only 39% of Nigerians were satisfied with their democracy, 72% said most politicians were corrupt and 57% said no matter who wins elections, things do not change much. Only 38% felt that elected officials cared what “ordinary people think”.

And so here we are. The problem is that it is difficult for a system to maintain its legitimacy if only one in three citizens believe in it. This is the position Nigerian democracy now finds itself in…

Like a marriage, democracy cannot survive without trust. The relationship between the Nigerian government and its people is broken. Apathy prevails. Trust is scarce. Buhari’s second term needs to be focused on tackling this lack of trust that Nigerians increasingly feel towards their political system. Otherwise, the future of Nigerian democracy looks very bleak indeed.

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Monday, March 04, 2019

How to get a handle on organized crime in Mexico

AMLO campaigned on a proposal for a new law enforcement organization because neither the police nor the army had been able to suppress organized crime and violence. The proposal comes to life.

Mexico Approves 60,000-Strong National Guard. Critics Call It More of the Same
Mexico’s Congress on Thursday approved the creation of a 60,000-member National Guard to tackle the nation’s public security crisis, a force that President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has made a cornerstone of his plan to confront organized crime and curb soaring violence.

The vote capped months of legislative wrangling over the nature of the force and who would control it, with human-rights activists and civil society groups lobbying fiercely to limit the military’s influence on it and warning it could represent the further militarization of policing in Mexico.

In the end, Congress decided the National Guard would have an explicitly civilian, rather than military, character, with the new force lodged under the authority of the civilian Ministry of Security and Citizen Protection.

The makeup of the force would be a hybrid, combining officers from the Federal Police with members of the army and navy’s policing units… The force’s top commander could be a military official but would report to a civilian boss.

The near-unanimous vote in the lower house of Congress followed a unanimous vote on the same proposal in the Senate on Feb. 21. The proposal, which involves reforms to more than a dozen articles in the Mexican Constitution, still needs ratification by a simple majority of Mexico’s state congresses to go into effect…

Some security analysts questioned whether the new entity would be radical enough break from the existing Federal Police — in composition, training and strategy — to alter the security situation.

“Operationally, it doesn’t change anything,” said Jaime López Aranda, a security analyst in Mexico City, noting that the National Guard would be another version of what Mexico has had for years: a hybrid model of civilian and military policing.

As for his assessment of whether the National Guard would have an impact on crime and violence, Mr. López Aranda responded: “Of course not. It’s the same people doing the exact same stuff.”

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